Bengaluru: The India State of Forest Report 2023 (ISFR 2023), released on December 21, once again painted an overall rosy picture of India’s forest and tree cover. The 18th edition of the report, released by the Forest Survey of India (FSI), lists the change in forest and tree cover across the country over every two years based on methods including satellite imagery.
Forest cover has increased by 156.41 square kilometers across India, it said. And tree cover, by 1,289.40 sq km. Together, it’s an increase of 1,445.81 sq km in forest and tree cover across the country. Forest fires too have decreased – in 2023-24, it decreased to around 2.03 lakh compared to 2.23 lakh for the same fire season period in 2021-22. And more.
Beyond the headlines, the ISFR 2023 reveals several alarming trends, including mangrove loss, forest degradation, and even a claim that the handing over of titles of ownership under the Forest Rights Act 2006 is among the several reasons that could be causing this decline in forest cover. The latter, policy experts say, is something that the authors of the report have to clarify.
And then there are the usual concerns, chiefly pertaining to methodology: a scientist who studies spatial ecology commented that the “numerical jugglery” in the last two ISFR reports need careful reading and analysis.
And the ISFR 2023 once again repeats the pattern of being a document that aims to ensure that India meets its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a set of targets or goals meant to tackle climate change under the Paris Agreement of 2015. On January 2, the Union government released news of its latest submission to the United Nations, on its progress towards NDCs – also using results presented in the ISFRs – to show that India in 2020 sequestered enough carbon through its increasing tree and forest cover to compensate 22% for its carbon emissions that year.
ISFR 2023: An overall rosy picture
As per the ISFR 2023, forest and tree cover now spans across 8,27,357 square kilometers, which is about 25.17% of India’s geographical area. This is “heartening” and it brings us now closer to the goal of 33% forest cover, said Anoop Singh, director general of the FSI while introducing the report at its launch. That’s a goal listed in India’s National Forest Policy of 1988.
The report states that “positive changes” in forest cover – such as increase in forest area – can be due to reasons, including the “natural growth of vegetation, often due to conservation efforts”, “establishment of new vegetation through afforestation initiatives” and “improved protection measures in plantation and traditional forest areas”.
At the launch event in Dehradun, Union environment minister Bhupender Yadav pointed to the increase in “Very Dense Forests” in recorded forest areas. “Very Dense Forest” is a category used to describe forests with tree canopy density higher than 70%, according to the ISFR 2023, this has increased by 2,431.50 sq km.
“Very Dense Forests are increasing and this is a good thing, far higher than last time,” said Yadav.
However, a detailed reading of the report shows several finer details and nuances that can be easily overlooked. For instance, what Yadav didn’t mention is that very dense forests have actually decreased (by 63.88 sq km) outside recorded forests. And so have moderately dense forest by 416.47 sq km and scrub areas by 1,912.46 sq km – two other types of forests that have lower canopy levels. Areas outside recorded forests are not protected; this decrease, therefore, should be a cause for concern.
It will be important to clarify whether the increase of forest cover is because of increase in forest land or a result of plantations on institutional lands and private lands or agroforestry on farm lands which could also be commercial in nature, Kanchi Kohli, an independent researcher who studies environmental law and policy told The Wire.
“There has been a critical debate around the methodology of the ISFR for the last several years on whether such areas should be equated with “forests” in the ecological or social meaning. This can give a skewed picture of both the understanding and quality of forest cover,” Kohli wrote in an email.
“Such a clarification will also help understand the nature of forest and tree plantation activities carried out in cities. Is it directed at addressing the climate target of offsetting carbon emissions or restoring the conservation potential of forests or both? Such clarifications and examples in the ISFR process can help citizens engage better with the process and be active partners in the future. It will also make explicit the qualitative aspects of loss and gain and the reasons for the same,” she added.
Similarly, while counts of forest fires during the fire season have decreased over the last two years as per the ISFR 2023 (2.03 lakh in 2023-24, when compared to 2.23 lakh in 2021-2022, and 2.12 lakh in 2022-23), some states have witnessed a huge rise in such fires.
Himachal Pradesh witnessed 10,136 forest fires in 2023-24, an increase from 5,280 and 704 in 2021-22 and 2022-23, respectively. Similarly, counts of fires in Uttarakhand rose from 12,985 in 2021-22 and 5,351 in 2022-23 to 21,033 this year.
“The entire forest department must think about this, forest fires are our biggest challenge,” Yadav had commented at the launch of the report.
Forest degradation
There has also been a decrease in forest area (or increase in “non-forest” areas, as per the report), both inside recorded forests and outside them. The ISFR 2023 lists a “Change Matrix”, which they say is a “quantitative representation of Forest Cover changes between two consecutive assessments, highlighting alterations in density classes, scrub, and non-forest areas”, and one that “offers insights into land cover transitions and dynamics over time”.
As per this Matrix, non-forest areas in recorded forests have increased by 1,197.48 sq km. Outside recorded forest areas too, non-forest areas have increased by 1,763.33 sq km, while open forest areas have increased by 629.48 sq km. And again, inside recorded forest areas, moderately dense forest, open forest and scrub have also decreased (by 1,234.95 sq km, 1,189.27 sq km and 1,204.76 sq km respectively).
There have been changes in the area under these forest types too, which suggest that forests across almost 93,000 sq km inside recorded forest areas have degraded. For instance, inside recorded forest areas, 40,709 sq km of very dense forests and moderately dense forests have degraded into open forest, while 5,573 sq km of very dense forest, moderately dense forest and open forest are now scrub jungles. And what’s more, 46,707 sq km of all these forest types – including scrub – have degraded into non-forest areas, or areas that are not forests of any kind at all.
This is a concern, since nearly half of this has degraded to non-forest, Srinivas V., senior fellow at the Foundation for Ecological Research, Advocacy and Learning, who studies spatial ecology and changes in landscape level processes and structure among other aspects, told The Wire.
“Either they will have to recover this land for restoration or the amount available will be halved. Another way to interpret this would be to say, 46,707 sq km of forest and scrub was diverted to non forest within the time period (finding it difficult to trace the time period),” Srinivas said.
That’s because while the ISFRs usually contrast changes in forest, tree cover and other aspects between two years (between the latest and previous ISFR assessments), the ISFR 2023 claims that these estimates of forest degradation are from 2011-2021.
As per the ISFR 2023, this entire area (almost 93,000 sq km), if afforested to bring it to the next highest canopy level category (such as converting non-forest to scrub, scrub to open forest, open forest to moderately dense forest and so on), could harbour a carbon sequestration potential of 636.50 million tonnes.
“The report mentions carbon sequestration potential of 406.05 MT of carbon from these degraded lands but is silent on non-forest uses,” commented Debadityo Sinha, lead, climate and ecosystems initiative at the Delhi-based Vidhi Centre for Legal Policy, in a social media post on X.
“In my understanding, these areas are already home to some of the country’s most significant engineering projects – mines, highways, and strategic developments of national importance – and many are being planned or approved following the latest amendments to the Forest Conservation Act. Yet, despite this acknowledgment, FSI holds up a mirror to our collective failures. Carbon Sequestration Potential or Carbon Sink lost – ultimately, it amounts to the same. The recent amendments to the Forest Conservation Act in 2023 are a disaster and the number is only going to increase significantly in coming years,” Sinha wrote.
So, finally the ‘India State of Forest Report 2023’ by @ForestSurvey is out today in 2 volumes consisting of 796 pages. Some quick observations:
1. India’s forest cover stands at 7,15,342.61 km²,ie 21.76% of the geo area. Including tree cover outside recorded forests, this rises… pic.twitter.com/nEfaxE3JkC
— Debadityo Sinha (@debadityo) December 21, 2024
Among the many changes brought in by the amendment to the Forest Conservation Act 1980 in 2023 (which is now law, and called the Van (Sanrakshan Evam Samvardhan) Adhiniyam, 1980) was that it diluted the definition of a forest and put tracts including community and deemed forests at risk, and opened up large forested patches to developmental activities.
Again, the concept of compensatory afforestation that India uses now, points to another major issue – one where governments or companies can destroy existing forest tracts for projects and other activities, just because ‘barren’ or wasteland elsewhere is being afforested in its place.
Many afforestation projects have occurred on grasslands and other open ecosystems that are classified as “wastelands” but that are extremely productive and support rural communities and economies in a big way while affecting wildlife, ecosystems, and ultimately, people.
“The ISFR 2023 observation/conclusions on forest degradation should be considered lessons that should guide how the systemic gaps in forest conservation and governance can be understood and redesigned,” noted Kohli.
Further, she underlined that a system that relies on an offset or compensation-based framework that allows for creating “forests” in what are non-forest areas means that existing forests and their socio-ecological functions are lost. And the creation of such new “forests” at the expense of existing ones may create newer injustices in these non-forest areas, Kohli said.
“For example, if trees are planted in the name of forest conservation/offsets/compensatory afforestation on grazing land, small farms or common lands (otherwise under private/revenue ownership) then it can curtail existing rights of use and dependence,” she added.
Other losses: Mangroves and more
While forest degradation is a key headline in the ISFR 2023, it is not the only concern. India has also suffered a loss of mangrove cover over the past two years, according to data presented in the ISFR 2023.
India’s extent of mangrove cover is now 4,991.68 sq km, a decrease of 7.43 sq km when compared to ISFR 2021. Gujarat, incidentally, has lost the highest area under mangroves, when compared to the last assessment – 36.39 sq km. Worryingly, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands also show a decrease in about 4.6 sq km of mangrove area.
The Union government is planning a series of developmental projects, including an international transshipment terminal, an airport, a township and a power plant, in the southernmost island in the Nicobar complex, the Great Nicobar Island.
Also read: The Forest and Its Links to Women’s Fight for Freedom and Identity in Hasdeo
“The projects are only going to increase mangrove loss in the island,” a wildlife biologist who has worked in Great Nicobar Island told The Wire.
The projects will involve reclaiming 300 hectares from the ocean, affecting marine biodiversity as well as mangrove cover on the island, The Wire reported in 2022. Authorities plan to balance the loss of 12-20 hectares of mangroves here by ‘re-densifying’ existing mangrove patches and planting mangroves in non-forest areas.
In ISFR 2023, bamboo cover has been clubbed with tree cover, which wasn’t the case before. The area of forest cover in Western Ghats Eco-Sensitive Areas across 45 districts in six states outside protected areas, following the list made by the Kasturirangan Report, is 44,043.99 sq km. When compared to ISFR 2013 that last listed this figure, there is a decrease of 58.22 sq km now in these areas.
The total forest and tree cover in the northeastern states is 1,74,394.70 sq km, as per the latest assessment – this is, again, a decrease of around 327 sq km when compared to the last assessment. “Other than Mizoram, all northeastern states show a decline in forest cover with RFA [recorded forest areas]. This is a concern,” said Srinivas.
FRA titles cited as a plausible reason for decline in forest cover
Apart from listing the plausible reasons why there have been “positive changes” in forest cover, the report also adds that “negative changes” in forest cover can be due to the “harvesting of short rotation plantations or other forms of logging,” “shifting cultivation practices,” “human activities, such as encroachment, etc.”, “natural calamities like storms, floods, and landslides,” and finally – “titles given to beneficiaries under the Forest Rights Act (2006)”. The ISFR 2023 is thus suggesting that the implementation of the FRA could be one of the causes of the decline in forest cover.
“It would be critical for the authors of ISFR 2023 to qualify and clarify this reasoning that the recognition of rights under FRA has had a negative consequence for forest cover,” Kohli told The Wire.
“This would be essential because of the history of forest governance in India where rights and ownership continue to be a source of conflict. Is this because the record of rights has shifted from forest to revenue or any other category at the time of vesting of rights or is the claim that rights holders have not conserved the forest cover,” she asked.
It is also ironic that the diversion of forest lands for industrial, infrastructure and extractive projects do not find a mention in the negative impacts, Kohli added.
“It is assumed that forest and tree cover lost to such projects, whether essential or avoidable, has been offset or compensated for. Both the reasoning and success rate of this assumption has been repeatedly challenged even in government audit reports, in parliamentary committee reports and civil society submissions,” she said.
Similar concerns, again
Again, there are questions regarding the methodology used in the ISFR 2023.
“The numerical jugglery is a mystery which needs careful reading of the 2021 and 2023 report,” Srinivas told The Wire.
“If you compare the results from the two reports, nearly 1,93,000 sq km of VDF [very dense forest], MDF [moderately dense forests ], OF [open forest] has been lost. All categories show declines. However, in the latest report, they use a normalisation factor to show a 297 sq km increase in these three categories. They do not provide any details about this factor and why it is required, if final raster products were compared then what is this factor? All gains shown are likely due to this factor,” Srinivas added. Normalisation factors are usually used in statistics to reduce redundancy in data, while rasters in this context are satellite images compiled using pixels.
Further, Srinivas underlined that “many man-hours” would be required to read the report and compile tables, which would make it easier to compare the two reports (ISFR 2021 and ISFR 2023).
These add to grave concerns that numerous scientists have already raised about the ISFRs over the years, as The Wire Science has reported before. Among them, the biggest concern has been how the ISFRs define forest cover. As per the report, forest cover is defined as “all lands, more than or equal to one hectare in area, with a tree canopy of more than or equal to 10%, irrespective of ownership and legal status; and includes orchards, bamboo, and palm.”
This means that even monocultures or plantations – including coconut orchards – outside forest areas are often classified as “forest cover” just because they have a tree canopy of more than 10%. However, these “forests” do not serve the ecological functions that real forests do.
It also appears that the government is only concerned about using the findings of the ISFR 2023, specifically the increase in forest and tree cover, and carbon sequestration levels, to claim that India is achieving its Nationally Determined Contributions (or NDCs).
Countries’ NDCs are targets or goals that countries commit to, to tackle climate change under the Paris Agreement of 2015. One of India’s, for example, is a commitment to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5-3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by increasing forest and tree cover by 2030 through efforts such as afforestation, which means that carbon in the atmosphere is sequestered in the form of trees.
“In these times of Amrit Kaal, we all are committed to make India a developed nation by 2047. In the Nationally Determined Contributions [sic] (NDC) commitments made at the Paris Climate Change Agreement, India has resolved to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tones [sic] of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030. We have also pledged to bring in 26 million hectares of degraded land under restoration by 2030, as part of Bonn Challenge. The present report reveals an increasing trend in forest and tree cover and in sequestered carbon, which is in line with our commitment to meet the NDC goals,” wrote Yadav, in the foreword of volume 1 of the ISFR 2023.
Almost in cue, on January 2, India released the news of the submission of its fourth biennial update report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on December 30, 2024.
“In 2020, India’s forest and tree cover, along with other land use, sequestered approximately 522 million tonnes of CO2, equivalent to reducing 22% of the country’s total carbon dioxide emissions in 2020,” the update report said, listing this as one of the key highlights of the document.
“India’s forest and tree cover has consistently increased and currently stands at 25.17% of the total geographical area of the country. During 2005 to 2021, additional carbon sink of 2.29 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent has been created,” the report, as well as the government press release on January 2, added.
