Jehangir Ali 
Srinagar: Jammu and Kashmir has 67 ‘potentially dangerous’ alpine lakes, 11 of which are ‘high-risk’ and require immediate intervention to mitigate the catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) that could have an impact on hundreds of thousands of people living downstream, according to a new study.
The first of its kind study by three teams of researchers from the University of Kashmir, the Central University of Jammu and the Geological Survey of India (GSI) has warned that the stability of some alpine lakes could be “severely compromised” by external factors such as cloudbursts, mass movements, avalanches or earthquakes.
“These triggers could lead to rapid destabilisation, causing catastrophic outflows with potentially devastating impacts on downstream areas,” the study, which was commissioned by J&K administration through the Department of Disaster Management, Relief, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction (DDMRRR) earlier this year to formulate risk mitigation strategies for tackling the looming threat of GLOF events in the Union territory (UT).
Global warming causes number of alpine lakes to increase
The UT of Jammu and Kashmir, which falls in the high risk seismic zone V, is home to more than 300 alpine lakes. In recent years, these lakes have attracted a high number of alpinists and trekking enthusiasts, raising concerns over the impact of growing human footprint in the eco-fragile Himalayan region.
Due to rapid melting of glaciers amid global warming, the number of alpine lakes and the size of some of the existing alpine lakes in Jammu and Kashmir has grown in the last two decades, according to experts.
A group of tourists from Mumbai on the trail to Greater Lakes of Pir Panjal region taking a break at Sandook Sar. Photo: Jehangir Ali.
The latest study, using advanced remote sensing tools and GIS-based analysis, noted that some alpine lakes in Jammu and Kashmir are dammed by rocks, a phenomenon that occurs when meltwater from retreating glaciers collects in depressions, giving these water bodies ‘a higher degree of stability’.
However, taking Sheshnag Lake in Anantnag as an example, the study found that some lakes have steep slopes that are prone to falling debris, which ‘adds to their vulnerability’. In some cases, such as Sona Sar lake, the researchers said that these lakes are vulnerable because of their ‘steep downstream slopes and deformed glacial feeder tongues’.
Tourist favourites at glacial retreat risk
The study has also warned that some alpine lakes, like Gangabal on ‘Kashmir Great Lakes’ trail which attracts the highest number of professional mountain climbers and trekking enthusiasts every year during summers, pose risk due to glacial retreat which has resulted in “expanding water volume and unstable terrains nearby”.
Professor Pervez Ahmed, who heads the Department of Geography and Disaster Management at the University of Kashmir, said that an inventory of all glacial lakes in Jammu and Kashmir has been prepared after studying their geological structure, volume of water, risk factors, among other parameters approved by the National Disaster Management Authority and the Central Water Commission.
While the University of Kashmir led the study in Kashmir Valley, the alpine lakes in Jammu region were studied by a team led by Prof Sunil Dhar of the Department of Environmental Sciences, Central University of Jammu.
Bram Sar lake, which is located in the higher reaches of south Kashmir’s Kulgam district, was studied by a team of the Geological Survey of India.
The researchers have classified the lakes into four categories – from mildly dangerous to high risk.
“The findings are based on preliminary field studies backed by scientific data. We need to get funding and proper instrumentation, even if through collaborative projects, to devise effective mitigation strategies,” professor Ahmed said.
A cloud of fog floating above Bhag Sar, the third largest alpine lake in Kashmir Valley. Photo: Jehangir Ali.
The preliminary findings of these studies, accessed by The Wire, noted that there are three high-risk lakes – Mundikeswar, Hangu Lake and an unnamed lake in the Kishtwar district of Jammu – that are ‘highly hazardous’, while the remaining eight such alpine lakes are located in the Kashmir valley.
Kishtwar risk greatest
The study has identified Kishtwar in Chenab valley of Jammu division as the “most vulnerable” district of the Union territory.
“These lakes exhibit characteristics such as unstable moraines, steep downstream gradients, and proximity to unstable glacier tongues, making them critical for targeted mitigation measures,” the study, which is being coordinated by Dr Binay Kumar, Associate Director at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing Ahmedabad, noted.
According to a 2023 study by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, more than 70% of the 700 GLOFs in the world since 1833 have taken place in the past 50 years with the year 1980 witnessing the highest number (15) of GLOF events followed by 13 in 2015.
A GLOF event struck Chorabari Lake in Uttarakhand’s Kedarnath in June 2013, killing thousands of residents, pilgrims and tourists, some of whom were never found, in what became known as the country’s worst natural disaster since the 2004 tsunami.
In April this year, the J&K administration set up a ‘Focused Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Monitoring Committee’ to study the increasing risk of glacial lake overflows which pose a grave risk to lives and livelihoods in the Union territory.
An official said that the research has thrown up “valuable data on the lake conditions, surrounding environmental factors and potential risks of GLOF events” that will be used to formulate “risk mitigation strategy”, including the deployment of early warning systems.
An official spokesperson of DDMRRR said that the strategy, which has not yet been made public, would be implemented in two phases and a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Early Warning System (EWS) is also proposed to be established to “enhance preparedness”.