February 2024 was the warmest February ever recorded as per European Union’s (EU) Copernicus Climate Change Service. It was also the ‘ninth consecutive month to break its own heat record.’ As per this agency, March 2024 has followed February’s footsteps and became the tenth consecutive month to break its own previous record. Any bets on April?
In 1986, the U.S. Senate Committee on the Environment and Public Works convened a hearing on ‘Ozone Depletion, the Greenhouse Effect, and Climate Change’. Post the event, there was no doubt that greenhouse gases would cause warming and sea-level rise.
Climate change and humankind
Parallel to the growing history of banality of human induced climatic changes is the increasing number of ways it is being addressed. Global warming transformed to climate change; its causes expanded from carbon dioxide to hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), depletion of rainforests, cows farting and fossil fuels. Suggestions on the ways to combat climate change now encompass renewable and nuclear energy, energy efficiency, electric vehicles (EV), electricity and water conservation, public transport, cycles, lifestyle choices like vegetarianism and socio-economic ideas like net zero, circular economy and degrowth. Financial systems like carbon offset and carbon trading materialised.
Consequences of, and reasons to, prevent climate change now include — temperature and sea level rise, glaciers melting, island and coastal submergence, increase in frequency and intensity of weather events, rise in health issues and disease transmission, deaths of humans and flora-fauna, impacts on agriculture from weather fluctuation and pests, and migration.
As per the US Department of Defense, water scarcity fuelled by climate change could cause future wars. To catalyse combating climate change, moral arguments were found — the unfairness of rich countries, prime contributors to climate change, demanding poor countries to stop polluting — and poorer countries have to bear the brunt of climate change even when this is something they did not contribute. Understandably climate change has posed challenges for indigenous people, children and future generations as well.
Also read: How a Critically Endangered Bird Helped Further the Cause of Climate Justice in India
Several studies and researches to understand the effects of climate change have thrown light on new constituencies of climate victims like its impacts on women. This has centred the discussion around concepts like climate justice, climate equity, climate inclusion, climate mitigation, climate adaptation, climate resilience all of which argue for climate action.
Over the years, industries, governments and cities have also started initiatives to thwart this existential threat. Citizens coalesced together, and NGOs were formed, to pressurise governments and industry to do more. To further combat the climate crisis, new forms of non-violent protest were devised, lawsuits were filed, and won, by citizens against their governments as they demanded more focussed attention on the burning issue and some investment, and pension funds, divested off fossil fuels.
Notably, distinguished works focussing on the distressing reality of climate change have also been awarded with prestigious awards like the Oscars and Nobel Prizes.
Our predicament and reasons thereof
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, world leaders have promised to ‘pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius’. As per the EU climate service, the 1.5C threshold was breached for nearly 50% of 2023.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration states ‘global average atmospheric carbon dioxide was 417.06 parts per million (“ppm” for short) in 2022, setting a new record high. The increase between 2021 and 2022 was 2.13 ppm — the eleventh year in a row where the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased by more than 2 ppm’. It is predicted to reach an average of 423.6ppm in 2024.
Why did all these efforts culminate in the temperature crossing 1.5C?
Maybe the answer lies in the global value of the fossil fuel market ‘USD 7.2 trillion in 2022 and is expected to reach around USD 11.78 trillion by 2032’. Compare that with the global renewable energy market which ranges from $1085 billion in 2023 to $1.21 trillion in 2023, which is expected to increase to $1912.12 billion (or 1.9 trillion) by 2030. Thus the 2023 Conference of Parties on Climate Change was held in oil producing United Arab Emirates.
The problem in climate solutions
Attempts to prevent climate change use the very things, and lifestyle systems, that cause it. Ergo the increasing number and variety of people impacted by, and working to, prevent climate change. Unsurprisingly, annual climate summits have grown bigger. The 2021 COP 26 in Glasgow had 40000 attendees, there were approximately 90,000 attendees at COP 28. There are other small and large conferences on this issue that draw international attendees.
If this is the situation amongst those concerned with climate change what of the lay people? There is a perception that the common person will not support the fight against climate change if told humankind needs a radical makeover.
This existential threat is being fought with an attitude which translates into the perception that EV’s can combat climate change. Are EV’s a panacea if powered by fossil fuel generated electricity, ore mined for its parts, and petrochemical products like plastic used? Similarly, bio-fuels are not alternatives to fossil fuel if sourced from chemical intensive agriculture or if agricultural produce is diverted from mouths to industries.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) muddies the water with terms like ‘Bioenergy’ which is ‘is produced from organic material, known as biomass, which contains carbon absorbed by plants through photosynthesis. When this biomass is used to produce energy, the carbon is released during combustion and returns to the atmosphere. As more biomass is produced an equivalent amount of carbon is absorbed, making modern bioenergy a near zero-emission fuel ’. By their logic, fossil fuels are ancient forms of bioenergy.
Yes, achievements have been made in combating climate change but these have been undeniably insufficient and even ineffectual. Actually, these raise the hypothetical question – would a person being beaten want the beating to reduce or stop? The consequences of climate change are too vast and egregious to just want to reduce its impact. Given the current system to combat climate change is faulty – it being built on the foundations that are causing the problem – some kind of ‘impact reduction’ is what may eventually be delivered.
Also read: What Can I Do About Climate Change?
The inconvenient truth is, in the current paradigm all climate change action is perceived as a big step forward if not a major victory. This lie lulls us into a false sense of security much like the faith that was reposed on the unsinkability of the Titanic. Thus, we continue charting an iceberg laden course instead of opting for another route.
The Covid years decreased pollution, unfortunately people also lost jobs. There is much to learn from those times to combat climate change. Instead of a sudden unplanned stop on all economic activity there can be a staggered reduction in global socio-economic activity. This is not something new, for example, four-day work weeks have been tried out successfully across the globe even before the Covid years. Generating profit and diverting some of it to fund climate action or profit making from climate action are no better than the ‘science’ of alchemy because it just broadens the scope of normal socio-economic activity.
The 1.5C increase is proof that it is time to transition from believing climate change can be combated with the business-as-usual formula to a planned reduction of human activity because as has been parroted ad nauseam ‘we have only one planet’ and more importantly, not everyone will get a seat on Elon Musk’s starship to Mars.
Samir Nazareth is the author of the travelogue, 1400 Bananas, 76 Towns & 1 Million People. He tweets at @samirwrites.
