The Smog May Lift, but Our Focus on Air Pollution Shouldn’t

For those of you who have been wondering why, despite a terrible pollution season and rising public protests due to increasing public awareness, the government still hasn’t moved beyond the usual reactive, band-aid optics, the answer, dear reader, is blowing in the wind.

It is common knowledge that Makar Sankranti, which marks the transition of the Sun into Capricorn and the beginning of its journey towards the northern hemisphere, launches the shift in India’s annual seasonal pattern. Winds in North India typically change direction in late January to early February, signalling the onset of warmer temperatures and the retreat of winter and its attendant pollution. 

Between the rising temperature – which dissipates the existing temperature inversion, allowing pollutants to disperse to higher altitudes – and the increasing wind speeds – which blow pollutants away – PM2.5 (micro-particulate matter) levels fall. 

So if this government can ride out these last three or four weeks of dismal, cold, smoggy weather conditions, then it can easily get away with another year of not implementing any long-term, systemic changes or even strongly enforcing any rules proactively that will lead to any measurable, time-bound, real outcomes. 

Last week saw significant rainfall, the first of the season, which means nature’s washing and blowing away much of the high pollution levels has begun. Even though pollution didn’t fall sharply, the rains were much more effective than the government’s pathetic attempts to reduce pollution through mist-machines and smog guns sprinkling precious water as well as its failed attempts at cloud-seeding in October.

In the coming days, north Indians will, unfortunately, stop or reduce talking about pollution and protesting against the toxic air they are forced to breathe, as they do every year. This has been a consistent pattern for the past 12 years in which I’ve been tracking the pollution space. 

Low visibility along the Yamuna river bank in Delhi due to smog; December 14, 2025. Photo: PTI.

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Politicians and bureaucrats will heave a sigh of relief and move on to the next problem, the next fire to put out, as we lurch from crisis to crisis in our uneven path towards economic growth and development.

This strategy has become the modus operandi of every political party. Politicians focus on fixing the blame instead of fixing the problem, and it is obvious that they are lying low right now, waiting for the worst of it to pass. Only those of us who have lost a loved one to air pollution or are personally harmed by its health effects are the ones left asking for clean air lasting systemic change and proactive policies with measurable, time-bound goals.

Aam Aadmi Party failed but what about the 'double-engine' BJP government?

If you thought the Aam Aadmi Party was ineffective – its ministers and spokespeople had become adept at passing the buck, blaming others and playing victim of an uncooperative political party in power at the federal level – then the new “double engine government,” which took over in Delhi in 2024 has taken blame, denial and band-aid optics to the next level. 

Instead of proffering real solutions by reducing emissions at source, this government has tried to deny that there is a problem at all. Most Indian official monitors are already capped at 500 while news reports have highlighted that the AQI in Delhi had surpassed 1000.

From spraying water mist near government monitors to manipulating AQI readings in other ways and encouraging fake narratives – such as those by Rajat Sharma of Aaj Ki Baat who went to the extent of blaming the low-lying Aravalli mountain range, which has been around for longer than human existence – many things have been tried. Sharma’s flip-flop has attracted a lot of attention, but most significantly highlighted once again how pollution has been politicised. 

There was even talk of India launching a new AQI, which led to memes that talked of India’s own air quality index – the Bharatiya Air Quality Weather Administrative System (BAQWAS).

Schools had to be shut and hospitals have been filling up with patients. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s flight for his three-nation tour to Jordan, Ethiopia, and Oman was delayed due to “low visibility,” also known as the smog. The Supreme Court has criticised the administration for its lack of action multiple times, but is itself guilty for reversing the ban on firecrackers before Diwali.

Despite public protests and growing calls to discuss this national public health emergency in parliament, the government has not just sidestepped any discussion on this issue but also claimed that no deaths have occurred due to air pollution. 

Congress MP Imran Masood wearing an oxygen mask participates in a protest over the issue of air pollution in the national capital. Photo: PTI

The Global Burden of Diseases report attributes 2 million deaths every year in India due to air pollution. This is more than the total number of deaths in the country from Covid since 2020. Globally, 7 million die from air pollution – India accounts for almost a quarter of these deaths.

Delhi chief minister Rekha Gupta, who took over from AAP, exposed her ignorance quickly about what AQI is and how it is measured. Her unscientific statements and lack of action led her to being booed by the crowds at a felicitation ceremony for football star Lionel Messi at a Delhi stadium 

With news of superbugs in Delhi’s polluted air, panic among a section of Delhi’s citizens, who are breathing the dirtiest air in the world, has only grown.

As for domestic environmental migrants, Goa and other southern states are seeing an influx of pollution refugees from north India, with resentment growing on both sides. 

Concomitantly, environmental damage by unscrupulous developers building fancy homes for several of these refugees is increasing local levels of pollution due to their excessive construction, cutting down of trees and destruction of the local hilly terrain. Research shows that pollution in the southern and eastern parts of India is growing at a much faster rate than the Gangetic plains, something that isn't highlighted enough.

Another less-known fact is that 90% of India breathes dirty air and not just northern India or Delhi, though these regions are the most highly polluted. The Indo-Gangetic plain is home to 40% of India's population or more than 500 million people. Mumbai has shown us in three consecutive years that it can beat Delhi's AQI levels. Earlier this week, on the first day of the Ranji trophy match, players had to wear masks while playing in Mumbai’s Bandra area.

And if you thought that only urban India was suffering, not only does research show that pollution is increasing faster in southern and eastern India, it is also growing in rural areas, where indoor air pollution (caused by burning biomass for cooking and heating) already contributes nearly 30% of outdoor air pollution. So where can people run to, to escape pollution?

Domestic protests, resistance by international athletes adding pressure

In the midst of this annual cycle of denial, blame, cynicism and fake news around air pollution, there are a few things that are different this time. In addition to growing protests against air pollution, well-known local voices have also amplified the diseases, disability and deaths triggered by air pollution.

More journalists are also taking up the cause including the controversial but high profile Arnab Goswami and reputable figures such as former IPS officer Kiran Bedi who has come out strongly against the systemic failure in controlling pollution saying 'India needs a very coordinated governance' rather than working in silos.

The issue has also received international attention. Well-known American entrepreneur and health and longevity fanatic Bryan Johnson highlighted India’s normalisation of high pollution levels after walking out of a podcast hosted by Zerodha founder and CEO Nikhil Kamath in Mumbai, when he was affected by pollution, despite wearing a mask. An unexpected outcome of that was Nikhil’s co-founder brother and CFO Nithin saying publicly that property prices should be linked to AQI or pollution levels. The video had garnered over 3.2 million views within days.

Foreign governments too have reacted to the hazardous air quality in India. Singapore, UK and Canada issued public health advisories to their citizens in December to exercise caution amid severe air pollution. These are much more public-facing actions than the hardship allowances that many consulates quietly offer their employees, something that should be a matter of shame for our country. 

The US Department of State categorises New Delhi among postings like Beirut and regional posts in Antarctica or the Arctic Circle – where its diplomats receive a hardship allowance pegged at 25% of basic compensation.

Sporting activities, including India’s beloved cricket, have also taken a hit. Cricket matches have begun taking account of pollution – the 2025 T20 match that was originally scheduled to be played in Delhi’s hazardous November air was moved to slightly less polluted Kolkata. Cricketers dread playing winter matches like the T20 in the north Indian plains and are often captured on camera vomiting or getting breathless after playing in toxic air. In a famous 2017 Test between India and Sri Lanka in New Delhi, play was suspended for a while due to poor air quality which led the Sri Lankan players to wear masks on the field. 

It is harder for team sport players to withdraw from playing in unhealthy conditions due to a misplaced sense of having to take one for the team. It's much easier to withdraw in sports like tennis and badminton. Badminton top-seed Anders Antonsen of Denmark refused to play in India’s hazardous air, choosing to pay a fine instead, making this the third year that international players backed out of tournaments.

Sarfaraz Khan wearing a mask during a Ranji Trophy match. Photo: PTI

For foreign sportspersons touring India, the risk is occasional and one they can choose to avoid, as shuttler Antonsen did at the India Open. There is no such luxury for Indian athletes. Their exposure is constant, and the cost cumulative. 

Dr Randeep Guleria, the former chief of AIIMS, warned that exercising in polluted air “puts extra strain on the lungs, reduces exercise capacity” and can also affect the heart and brain. Coaches and athletes from a wide range of sports – boxing, wrestling, athletics and para-athletics, cycling, shooting and hockey – say the impact of the toxic winter air on health and training is affecting their planned training cycles. 

Indian track and field athlete Tejaswin Shankar said winter training in Delhi is no longer about grit, but pollution. “There are real physiological costs for athletes in Delhi,” he said. Coughing and vomiting are only the tip of the iceberg. Guleria’s prescription is blunt; to train safely, sportspeople and athletes should ideally base themselves outside central India, because of the Indo-Gangetic belt’s terrible air.

For a country that is making a pitch to host the 2036 Olympics, it is embarrassing that foreign players have flagged this issue to the International Olympic Committee. On the other hand, this could be a gamechanger that India needs. China hosted the Olympics in 2008 and world attention on its hazardous air forced it to focus its formidable power in actually reducing pollution. The country is now the poster child for solving this problem. 

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates that air pollution in India led to over 2 million deaths annually, making India one of the few countries with the largest burden of air pollution deaths. These results were also published in the State of Global Air report in 2025. “Most deaths attributed to air pollution actually stem from air pollution’s role in the development and exacerbation of other, non-communicable diseases,” said the report.

"Air pollution isn't an environmental statistic; it's a public-health emergency that shows up in asthma, heart disease and hospital admissions,” says climate scientist Ronak Sutaria, founder and CEO of Respirer Living Sciences.

India's air pollution spotlit at Davos

Amid this building pressure came another welcome development – renowned economist Gita Gopinath spoke about India’s air pollution crisis at the World Economic Forum summit in Davos, Switzerland last week. 

Gopinath, a former senior International Monetary Fund (IMF) official, said that India’s air pollution crisis causes more economic damage than any tariff imposed so far, noting that “addressing this on a war footing is critical.” 

By calling out the elephant in the room at the meeting of the world’s richest business folk in Davos, Gopinath has done what no one else has had the courage to do.. 

“The impact of pollution on the Indian economy is far more consequential than any impact of any tariffs put on India so far,” and is holding the country back, she said, noting that 18% of total deaths in India are from air pollution. “So addressing that on a war footing is critical. This has to be a top mission for India.”

A report published by the Clean Air Fund on January 28, a week after Gopinath’s comment, showed that in 2024, India’s average PM2.5 level of 50.6 micrograms per cubic metre resulted in $260 billion in lost business revenues from pollution-related impacts. This caused a staggering 6% loss to India’s overall GDP due to reduced business outputs. Comparisons with the same team’s 2021 study of India’s economic losses due to air pollution show that losses amounted to $95 billion then, a number equivalent to 3% of India’s GDP. By these estimates, not only have the losses increased but India’s annual GDP losses due to air pollution have also doubled in 2024.

Meanwhile, an analysis by the World Bank in 2023 said that India’s GDP was also growing slower because of the increasing air pollution.“We estimate that Indian GDP would have been 4.51% higher in 2023 if pollution had been reduced by 50% in the last 25 years,” read the report.

Gopinath’s recent warning at Davos may have sparked controversy, but statistics strongly back her statements. Pollution is not just costing India almost two million lives – which is roughly over 3% of GDP in lost productivity annually – it is also causing disease and disability. 

Economic growth is a measure of growth of a country’s Gross Domestic Product. But when the basket of goods changes, with GDP growth coming from manufacturing and sales of nebulisers, medicines, surgeries, chemotherapy, radiation, and air and water purifiers, instead of crops, merchandise and tourism, then clearly the country is heading towards a public health disaster.

Gopinath, who is currently a professor of Economics at Harvard University, highlighted the fact that if foreign investors want to set up companies in India, they will find it hard to resource these companies with human capital if people are concerned about the hazardous levels of pollution in the air that they must involuntarily breathe, even if they are paid a hardship allowance. 

Opportunity to increase life expectancy and economic growth, impact climate

China turned its pollution crisis around in just a few years with ruthless enforcement and accountability whereas India’s weak National Clean Air Program has no measurable, timebound and enforceable goals, leave alone transparency and accountability.

India has the knowledge and technology to easily clean up its air. What it lacks is political will. Every year of delay continues to put more lives at risk and pushes the $5 trillion economy dream away. 

India has the unique opportunity to increase the life expectancy as well as economic growth of its people with the same policy.  Cleaning up its air would unleash an increased life expectancy of 3.57 years.

Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, posted on X recently, “We are paying a heavy price for air pollution – with our health and with our economy. Crores of ordinary Indians bear this burden every day. Children and the elderly suffer the most. Livelihoods, especially of construction workers and daily wage earners are severely impacted. This crisis cannot be forgotten until next winter. The first step towards change is to raise our voices.”

The critical strategy would be to continue asking for clean air all through the year and not just in the peak pollution months. Gandhi has repeatedly demanded a discussion on this in the parliament. If he manages that, without politicising the issue, and is able to pull everyone together across parties, India may still be able to rise and not just gain the respect of the world, but the respect and gratitude of its own people.

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