Aathira Perinchery 
Bengaluru: Global temperatures have broken records this year. As per the latest Emissions Gap Report released by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) on November 20, the current pledges under the Paris Agreement put the world on track for a 2.5-2.9°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels this century, far higher than the limit of restricting global warming to a 1.5 or 2°C temperature rise. This points to the urgent need for increased climate action, according to the report.
The report, released less than 10 days ahead of the UN climate change summit in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, shows how crucial discussions revolving around reframing new Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs that countries should commit to – to keep global warming to below subscribed levels as per the Paris Agreement of 2015 – would be during the climate conference.
It is important that nations make more ambitious pledges, and move towards immediate but also just and equitable climate action, experts and activists said.
Record high emissions in 2022
The Emissions Gap Report 2023 published by the UNEP on November 20, titled “Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)”, is the 14th of its kind so far. Emission Gap Reports are released annually by the UNEP and provide a scientific assessment of the gap between greenhouse gas emissions reductions pledged by countries and the reductions that are now required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of 2015. The Agreement necessitates that signatory countries reduce their emissions to keep global warming limited to within 1.5 degrees Celsius, or well below a 2 degrees Celsius scenario.
The Emissions Gap Report is crucial for it can help channel the next round of NDCs that countries should commit to, to keep global warming to below subscribed levels. These are subjects that will be under discussion at the upcoming UN climate change conference, COP28, scheduled to take place in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates between November 30 and December 12.
This year’s Emissions Gap Report shows that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reached a record high of 57.4 gigatonnes worth of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2022, which is an increase of 1.2% when compared to 2021.
“CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes were the main contributors to the overall increase, accounting for about two thirds of current GHG emissions,” the report noted.
To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, GHG emissions must decline to between 33-41 GtCO2e by 2030, as per the report.
According to the report, the top seven global emitters in 2022 remain the same as in 2021. They are Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the European Union, the Russian Federation and the United States of America. Together (and including international transport), these emitters accounted for a total of 33 GtCO2e in 2021, or 65% of global emissions (on a territorial basis). Emissions of the G20 members increased in 2022 and accounted for three quarters of the total. The G20 countries – which also includes India – accounted for 76% of global emissions. Low and middle-income countries – including India, China, Brazil and Argentina, among others – contributed 53% in 2000, and this rose to 69% in 2021. Preliminary estimates of greenhouse gas emissions increased for several countries in 2022 when compared to 2021, including India (an increase of 5.1%) and Indonesia (10%), while it decreased in several others such as Brazil (a decrease of 2.5%).
The report found that energy supply was the largest source of emissions at 20.9 GtCO2e (36% of the total) in 2022. This, the report said, is mainly caused by combustion emissions in the power sector (14.8 GtCO2e) and emissions from fossil fuel production.
Inequality in consumption-based emissions
There is also a lot of inequality in consumption-based emissions, the report noted. Per capita territorial GHG emissions vary significantly across countries: they are more than double the world average (of 6.5 tonnes of CO2e) in Russia and the US, while India’s is less than half of it.
“Globally, the 10% of the population with the highest income accounted for nearly half (48%) of emissions with two-thirds of this group living in developed countries. The bottom 50% of the world population contributed only 12% of total emissions,” the report read.
Similarly, historic emissions and their contributions to global warming also varied across nations. It noted that the US – which accounts for only 4% of the current world population – contributed to 17% of global warming from 1850 to 2021.
“India, by contrast, accounts for 18% of the world population, but to date only contributed [to] 5% of warming,” the report noted.
If current policies are continued, global warming is estimated to be limited to 3°C before pre-industrial levels throughout the current century – and there’s a 66% chance of this happening, per the report. Delivering on all unconditional and conditional pledges by 2030 lowers this estimate to 2.5°C. However, fulfilling all additional net-zero pledges of all parties will bring it to 2°C, which is almost in line with the Paris Agreement.
But the prospects aren’t good.
Implementation of the NDCs will be key. The world will need to cut emissions by 28% by 2030 to achieve the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement, and by 42% to achieve the 1.5°C goal.
“Even in the most optimistic scenario considered in this report, the chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is only 14 per cent, and the various scenarios leave open a large possibility that global warming exceeds 2°C or even 3°C,” the report noted.
The 2023 Emissions Gap Report also finds that energy transitions will be crucial in limiting global warming to the desired limits. Delaying GHG emissions reductions will also increase our reliance on carbon dioxide removal mechanisms from the atmosphere in future, such as through afforestation, reforestation and forest management. The Report also highlighted that “countries with greater capacity and greater historic responsibility for emissions” – especially high-income and high-emitting G20 countries will need to take “more ambitious and rapid action”.
‘Chilling reality’, ‘on thin ice’: Activists
The latest Emissions Gap Report 2023 “presents a chilling reality”, Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International, told Climate Trends, a research-based consulting and capacity building initiative.
“Our world is teetering on the edge of a catastrophic temperature rise, with predictions pointing towards a 2.5-2.9°C increase above pre-industrial levels if current trends continue,” he said. “We are on thin ice. The stark reality is that the projected emissions from coal, oil, and gas extraction are on track to exceed the carbon budget needed to limit warming to 1.5°C by over 3.5 times.”
The window for action is rapidly closing, and unless we act urgently and dramatically to shift away from fossil fuels and embrace green energy, the chances of limiting warming to even 1.5°C are dismally low, he added.
“This vast contrast between our current trajectory and the Paris Agreement goals highlights the failure of rich countries to meet their climate commitments,” Singh said. “They have not only fallen short in reducing emissions but also in providing essential financial support to nations most vulnerable to climate impacts. This represents a glaring gap between rhetoric and reality.”
What the world needs now is “transformative action”, he said. “The time for bold, decisive, and equitable climate action is now – anything less is a betrayal to current and future generations.”
Importance of COP28
“We know it is still possible to make the 1.5 degree limit a reality,” said Antònio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, in a press release. “It requires tearing out the poisoned root of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. And it demands a just, equitable renewables transition.”
The first global stocktake – which involves analysing aspects worldwide climate action and support, identifying gaps, and working together to agree on solutions pathways – will conclude at COP 28 in Dubai this year, and this will inform the next round of NDCs that will set the new national emissions targets for 2035, said Inger Andersen, executive director of the UNEP, in the 2023 Emissions Gap Report.
“Ambition in these NDCs must bring greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 to levels consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C pathways. Stronger implementation in this decade will help to make this possible. The world needs to lift the needle out of the groove of insufficient ambition and action, and start setting new records on cutting emissions, green and just transitions, and climate finance – starting now.”