The results of the Bihar assembly elections have once again shown that the outcome of an election has nothing to do with the actual performance of the respective government. These days what decides the victory is the ability to manipulate alliances, dominate publicity with maximum information control and the efficiency in political management.

Consider the Bihar case. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which won by the support of women by showering revdi (freebies), ignored them altogether by including just three women in ministry, that too, with insignificant portfolios.

Gone are the days when we visited the election state, studied the ground realities and carried an honest assessment based on the voter’s mood. None of this is relevant anymore. 

Now, if any individual journalist ventures honest analysis, these data are released at the fag end of the polling dates or soon after to ensure that they won’t influence the outcome. This is just the kind of media manipulation that exists today. 

A Delhi daily had carried three pieces – the crucial role of village mukhiyas in elections, Bihar’s unique migration model and why its unemployment is not what appears to be. Barring the first, the obedient media carried the rest towards the end of the elections, taking care that it did not influence the results. Such self-censorship has become part of Indian media’s prevailing ethics. 

Then again, the one on mukhiyas’ role in Bihar village is also not altogether new. It was discussed and debated decades ago. But the other two that were released on the polling day and a day before – apparently to avoid consequences on polling – are really revealing. In Bihar, the second report points out, 65% of the households, after 20 years of Nitish rule, depend on remittances by the migrants, as against barely 10-15% in 1981. Their remittances form 50% of the household income in the state.    

The share of households with at least one migrant rose from 36% in 1988-89 to about 65% in 1917. It continued to rise in the subsequent years, with the Narendra Modi government joining hands. The nature of migration has also shifted from short-term to long-term. The study found that unlike earlier, now migration was driven by acute poverty at home. Manufacturing in Bihar, which normally absorbs the jobless, accounts for just 5% of population – compare this with the all-India average of 11%.

Also, Bihar totally failed to take advantage of the green revolution, which had immensely benefited states like Punjab, Haryana, parts of UP and pockets in other states. As against this, the average landholding in Bihar is barely one acre. Also, employment growth in Bihar was confined  mainly to agriculture and construction. Therefore, it will be extremely difficult for the state to absorb more jobless people.

The third study is even more startling. It highlights the carefully cultivated myth that Bihar had achieved a miraculous rise in job creation during the Modi years. The claim was widely publicised throughout the election campaign, and before it, with no one really coming out to contradict it. In fact, this has become the typical Modi-style of falsification of data that the BJP uses as a political strategy.

In this case, the sudden rise in job creation was achieved by simply including a large chunk of the family members as regular workers. It is normal for the close kith and kin to help the family-run dhabas and roadside carts – they help the elders as and when needed. The arrangement is often informal. Now, at one stroke, all of those kith and kin have been included as ‘job creation’ by Modi.

In fact, in this case, no new jobs have been actually created, rather only redefined on paper as ‘new employment’ with all accompanying entitlements. But no fixed hours, wages or social security for those chhotus (a slang for waiters) you find at the dhabhas.  And suddenly their proportion surged from 5% of Bihar’s work force in 2017 to 21% by 2023-24. They are now listed as ‘partners’ in family businesses. This enabled the regime to claim a fall of overall jobless rate to 3% from 8% in 2023-24.

Remember, these are not jobs created by a growing economy but actually a hidden underemployment that keeps the headline numbers comfortable. There have also been concerted moves by pro-Modi economists to do similar tinkering in domestic workers' roles in India.

Another discomfiture to the regime came soon after the results. Pawan Kumar Varma of the Jan Suraaj Party alleged that the NDA government withdrew Rs. 14,000 crore from the World Bank and diverted the funds for distributing to women voters under Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana. The allegation has not been contradicted so far.

Varma, a well-known columnist, noted that the debt in Bihar at present stands at Rs. 4,06,000 crore; the interest per day is Rs 63 crore. The treasury is empty, Verma alleged. Bihar is India’s poorest state with lowest per capita income.

The NDA’s Bihar triumph is already having deleterious fallout on Indian politics. Soon after the results came out, Modi claimed there would be a split in Congress and an exodus from the opposition alliance. This, he said, had cleared the path for BJP’s victory in West Bengal, he said.

The suggestion is apparent: it is now going to be an all-out projection of Modi.

A master performer, he has proclaimed his decision to use Bihar  triumph as a springboard. He has set West Bengal as his next target but with better strategies. “Ganga flows to Bengal via Bihar,” he said. 

At Coimbatore, he declared: “Bihar winds have arrived in Tamil Nadu before me.” 

Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis too sounded the bugle.  “The one who wins becomes the emperor,” he said. The warning is loud and clear. The feuding partners of his NDA coalition now look to the Bihar template as a survival strategy.

As Fadnavis said, the winner will now call the shots everywhere and everyone will readily endorse it. And more will line up to join the ranks of power worshippers. The dealer-wheelers will have a field day. 

Already the other states are coming out with more Modi advertisements. There is more demand for Modi functions in their states. Everyone is keen to please the boss and curry favour.  

Consider the fumbling even in daily pollution data: this was to provide a rosy picture and keep the bosses in good humour. Finally, the Supreme Court had to intervene. Interestingly, most of the Godi media failed to report this side of the court directive.

Look at the straws in the wind. Suddenly, governors in opposition states have become more like activists. Take the curious case of West Bengal governor Ananda Bose, who carried out a search himself, complete with security officials and sniffer dogs, after a Trinamool Congress leader alleged arms and ammunition were stored in Raj Bhawan. The Kerala governor has also become more active recently.

On the other side, there are adverse reactions, most of it unreported, against excessive eulogisation of one leader and his arbitrary decisions. 

The BLOs working on the special intensive revisions – SIRs – are dying by suicide due to extreme stress. This has led to street agitation in Kerala, Rajasthan, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

As many as nine suicides have been reported in West Bengal so far. As per chief minister Mamata Banerjee, however, the number of suicides, in West Bengal alone was 20. The latest one was reported in Jalpaiguri. 

In BJP-ruled Gujarat, an overworked BLO said before dying by suicide: “I cannot bear this anymore.” Another exhausted BLO collapsed in Jhabua in BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh.

Kerala has already taken the SIR issue to the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, ‘‘deactivation’ of the Aadhaar card appears to be a new tool to harass the opposition.

People have also been protesting on the streets for days over a number of reasons but these protests go unreported because the mainstream media does not consider them music to the bosses. Mothers, children and concerned citizens gathered at Jantar Mandir on November 18 to protest against the toxic air. More people spontaneously joined again the next day to record their resentment.

This report was left with Delhi Times, a supplement to the main paper – The Times of India – to file a scrappy report on the acute shortage of air purifiers in Delhi. There has been a scramble to source the purifiers online, it quoted the eager buyers.  

And then there are reports of sexual harassment accused Brij Bhushan getting ‘guest of honour’.

Tailpiece

“Welfare does not happen by distributing money in elections.” This sane counsel to Modi came from the old warhorse, Murli Manohar Joshi. The veteran was commenting on the massive bonanza given to women voters during the Bihar elections. 

“The government says money was for welfare. Others say it was to purchase votes,” he quipped.

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