#CheckForYourself: Anatomy of the 40-Lakh Voter Surge in Maharashtra

New Delhi: Two deleted tweets from psephologist Sanjay Kumar have forced an uncomfortable question into the open: what do Maharashtra's voter registration numbers truly represent? Kumar’s specific data points were admittedly flawed, but his action inadvertently triggered intense scrutiny of the official figures that have become a focal point of India's 'vote theft' debate.

The core of the puzzle lies in the just over five-month gap between the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.

The opposition, led by Rahul Gandhi, alleges a surge of "1 crore new voters," implying a systemic manipulation. The Election Commission of India earlier in December 2024 countered with a precise, audited figure: a net gain of 40.8 lakh voters, explaining that nearly 27 lakh were young, first-time registrants.

An analysis of the ECI’s own data reveals that this surge was far from uniform.

It was concentrated in specific regions, districts, and constituencies, raising questions that demand a deeper look.

Here are the key highlights from the data:

• Regional disparity: The growth was heavily skewed towards certain sub-regions. Konkan (4.5%) and Paschim Maharashtra (4.6%) saw the highest average percentage of voter additions, while Marathwada (3.5%) saw the lowest.
• District hot spots: At the district level, the concentration becomes even clearer. Electorates in Kalyan (10.3%), Thane (6.9%), and Shirur (6.5%) experienced explosive growth. In stark contrast, districts like Mumbai South Central (1.9%) and Gadchiroli-Chimur (2.0%) were at the bottom of the table.
• Stark constituency-level gaps: The most dramatic variations are at the constituency level. Dombivali in Kalyan district saw its electoral roll swell by an astonishing 13.8% in just five months. It was followed closely by Malegaon Central (13.3%) and Kalyan Rural (12.6%). Many of these high-growth seats, including Panvel (10.2%), are now at the center of specific allegations of voter duplication.
• The political angle: While constituencies won by the ruling Mahayuti alliance (4.2% avg. addition) saw higher average additions than those won by the MVA (3.7%), it was seats won by 'Others' (5.4%) that recorded the highest growth of all. This suggests that the patterns are complex.

The choropleth map below allows readers to explore these patterns in full detail.

It provides a constituency-level audit of the net additions to Maharashtra's voter rolls, revealing the geographic concentrations and disparities in voter growth.

In the context of the controversy sparked by Sanjay Kumar, the map shows precisely where, and by how much, the electoral rolls grew, lending specific statistical weight to the on-the-ground allegations emerging from constituencies like Panvel.

As the election process comes under scrutiny, read The Wire's coverage of the Bihar SIR, opposition's allegations and more, here

The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.