When Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his first address to the 18th Lok Sabha emphasised the need for consensus and taking everyone along, it was widely hailed as a welcome development. But within hours, the hope was shattered.
Every move since then — the arbitrary appointment of the Pro Tem Speaker, election of the Speaker without a reasonable deal on appointment of a Deputy Speaker, the mobilisation of allies to issue a statement against the opposition — has sent out the disturbing signal: Mosha (the unit of Modi and Shah) is bent on pushing the same old confrontationist policy.
This was also evident in the discussion on the president’s address to parliament – in the speeches of BJP MPs, the comportment of the Lok Sabha speaker and Rajya Sabha chairman, the frequent interruptions during Rahul Gandhi’s speech and finally Narendra Modi’s own response to the debate.
It is now apparent that Modi will remain an authoritarian leader at the top with the same old loyal apparatchiks besides him. He will also continue with the same kind of strong leader buildup we saw this past decade. And the government’s first advertisement with the usual Modi picture appeared in Delhi dailies on June 18. BJP state governments followed it from the next day.
On June 26, a new genre of full-page ads appeared: of influential labharthis thanking Modi ji for GST exemption by the finance ministry. The whole establishment, government as well as top party hierarchy, the entire godi media and the BJP’s vast social media network — all sent out the same message: nothing has changed after the elections and Narendra Modi remains the super boss.
“Ma Ganga adopted me after the ‘unprecedented’ 2024 poll verdict,” he claimed at a Varanasi function. There he released the 17th instalment of the Kisan Samman Nidhi with great aplomb. To prove it is business as usual, he has resumed his nationwide, 22-language ‘Mann ki baat’ which was launched in 2014 as part of a cult build-up. Next in the line is his ‘Pariksha pe Charcha’.
All this is aimed at projecting Modi as the leader of the entire nation, entire coalition, not of the 240 BJP members alone. In the new cabinet, the BJP has cornered all core ministries and left only the minor ones to allies.
As before, Modi will make ceremonial appearances at cabinet meetings and announce new proposals. Ministers from allied parties will be expected to endorse his words without so much as a discussion. As per the new coalition dharma, the non-BJP parties are also obliged to follow the ‘combined wisdom’ of the cabinet, not their own party’s election manifesto or proclaimed policies.
Accordingly, they all accepted Modi’s pre-election 100-day agenda without any change. The PM and other senior BJP ministers implicitly emphasise the new rule of coalition over and again at all meetings. Members of the coalition partners, including the TDP, silently endorsed their words.
But there were hiccups too. After taking over as minister of heavy industry and steel, JD(S) nominee H.D. Kumaraswamy revealed that a US-based semi-conductor manufacturer in Gujarat was being given a Rs. 3.2 crore subsidy for every single job it created. He was emphasising the cruel imbalance in official policy towards Indian MSMEs. But soon, pressure mounted on him and he had to withdraw the remarks.
The JD(S) leader readily agreed to follow the new dictum that individual ministers must merge their personal preferences with that of the entire cabinet. Implicit in this has been the new authoritarian rule: that individual ministers can make no comments even about their own portfolios.
Modi’s strong leader coalition model, though hardly a month old now, has already acquired definable features. It is a hybrid version of traditional electoral dictatorships and regular rainbow coalitions. Under the new model, the super boss will not entangle himself with the nitty gritty of coalition management. This will be left to senior cabinet aides anchored by Amit Shah.
Under the new division of labour, Rajnath Singh will interact with coalition allies and negotiate with opposition leaders. He will report back to Amit Shah who is the anchorman. In all negotiations, Shah has the last word. It was he who formally rejected the request for Deputy Speaker’s post to opposition. Under this arrangement, the PM can be effectively insulated from the ignominy of failures.
Also read: Modi’s Two Hour Speech Signals Status Quo For His Muscular Posturing Despite Electoral Setback
Take the case of the Speaker election. After fixing with the coalition allies, Rajnath met leaders of the main opposition party to seek their support for Om Birla. The Congress was ready to avoid a contest but insisted on the principle that the deputy speakership be left to the opposition. This has been the normal parliamentary tradition. Rajnath assured them that he would convey this demand to the boss and contact Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge. But this never happened. Despite this, Congress leader K.C. Venugopal and the DMK’s T.R. Balu met Rajnath in the presence of Amit Shah. But the latter bluntly rejected the opposition’s demand.
This has not been the practice in earlier coalitions. Then, the PM was directly at the helm of negotiations. Take the case of Vajpayee. He had an array of negotiators like Jaswant Singh, Pramod Mahajan and George Fernandes – ever ready to embark on patch-up missions. In contrast, Modi’s BJP is badly handicapped by the lack of smooth communication with those in the opposition.
This is due to the confrontationist mindset of Modi and his aides. All through the past ten years, BJP leaders from Modi to small fries like Anurag Thakur have been used to the language of what Mohan Bhagwat calls ahankar. They are, by training, best at throwing challenges and threats to the opposition and at times, ridiculing them. They are yet to learn the language of conciliation, compromise and persuasion.
During the good old days of democracy, MPs belonging to different parties sat in the central hall of the old parliament house and freely mixed with each other. For journalists, central hall was a treasure house of information. Often, individual party leaders held impromptu press conferences. This changed in the confrontational atmosphere which has persisted since 2014.
Insulating the boss from dangerous entanglements has been an important item in the elected authoritarian’s playbook every where. Modi’s famed silence on issues like China’s incursions, Adani’s escapades, the civil war in Manipur and now the NEET and NET scams has been part of this self-protection from exposures. Will the strategy of keeping the PM away from the rigours of coalitional entanglements work in the long run?
For this, we have to wait and watch how events unfold in coming months. There are many fault lines, some of them deep. After taking charge, law minister Arun Ram Meghwal has repeatedly asserted that controversial proposals like Uniform Civil Code and ‘one-nation, one-election’ are very much part of this government’s agenda. The first assertion came soon after taking office. Two days later he reasserted that these were ‘Modi’s Programme’ and hence will have a ‘smooth passage.’ All NDA allies were on board and there was no doubt about it, Meghwal asserted. The JD(U) instantly supported the UCC and one-election theme but developed cold feet when it realised the wider implications.
However, the day before the new government was sworn in, the TDP, the biggest and most difficult ally with 16 MPs, had said that UCC and delimitation should not be pushed through without adequate debate. The TDP’s stand on Muslim reservation is also different from the BJP. All such controversial issues need to be discussed among different sections of the people, it said. The TDP has a Muslim support base and obviously does not wish to jeopardise it.
Like other south-based parties, there has been much skepticism among TDP leaders about the proposal for delimitation of parliamentary constituencies. This is seen as a punishment to states that had better record of development and excellent performance in population control.
Under the Westminster model, the prime minister sits at the centre of government. But he is responsible to the president and answerable to parliament on behalf of the cabinet. Modi has been the first to flout this convention both in theory and practice.
Look at his track record in limiting the role Parliament to hastily pass his preferred bills without due deliberation:
- Modi’s 17th Lok Sabha was the shortest since 1952 with the average annual sittings dropping to 55 from 135 in the first. It set a record by not electing a deputy speaker.
- Modi himself was present in the Lok Sabha for only four days in 2021.
- A record number 206 MPs were suspended during 17th Lok Sabha. Of this, 146 or 20 per cent of the total, happened during 2023 winter session. These were serial suspensions.
- All ten bills introduced in the winter session were passed without sending them to committees.
In the emerging scenario, the TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu will have a crucial balancing role. As of now, there are three categories of NDA allies. The minor parties who have all these years stood by the BJP regime. The second is the highly pliable JD(U) with 12 MPs. The TDP is the third. Its leader has 16 MPs and a mixed track record as a coalition partner. He used power as a bargaining chip for financial gains for Andhra Pradesh.
Back in the day, he had broadly supported the Vajpayee government’s economic policies. However, at times he had fiercely resisted the BJP regime’s moves like acquisition of Ayodhya land and efforts to impose curbs on minority rights. At the moment, he is busy with provincial matters. He hardly finds time for national politics. However, as events unfold, Naidu will soon be forced to take a position on issues affecting minorities, given his large minority vote base.
- What will the TDP’s position be within the cabinet and Parliament if proposals like UCC and simultaneous elections as proposed by the law minister are pushed?
- As a responsible coalition partner, will his ministers accept the present practice of endorsing all official proposals without discussion and mutely submit to the clearance of documents by the PMO?
- How will he respond to issues like the widespread exam scams that have plagued NEET, NET and other competitive tests which have caused dislocation to large sections of students and parents?
- He will have to take a decisive stand on the selective use of agencies like ED/CBI/IT against the regime’s political rivals. Among the victims are Arvind Kejriwal and JMM chief Hemant Soren.
All of these issues are going to test the coalition government which Modi now heads.
