For Arms Dealers, Operation Sindoor Was Not a Crisis Conflict But a Business Opportunity
Rahul Bedi
Chandigarh: As India and Pakistan traded missiles, smart munitions and armed drones during Operation Sindoor’s four-day showdown, there was one circle of players that remained blissfully unfazed: defence conglomerates and their safari-suited emissaries in wraparound Aviator Ray Bans.
To this slick cohort, Sindoor was not a crisis conflict, but a business opportunity with live demonstrations of kamikaze swarm drones, (artificial intelligence) AI-guided munitions and stealth surveillance technology, amongst other advanced 21st-century military equipment.
Every precision strike, loitering drone and radar lock-on also doubled as validation of combat-tested technology of their manifold catalogued products, guaranteed to impress defence officials and procurement committees in New Delhi and in all likelihood, Rawalpindi too, prompting both to quickly place repeat orders.
For, in this theatre of calibrated conflict, an outcome was not essential, only the fear of defeat; and it is this dread that continues to be cynically exploited by overseas arms dealers and their legion of middlemen or ‘agents’ for whom conflict is commerce and profit trumps principles each time.
Hence, instead of panicking or wishing for peace, they popped champagne – or its non-alcoholic variant – in anticipation of fresh contracts for material and the latest techno-military wizardry for the next round of India-Pakistan fireworks.
Stage set for lucrative upgrades and retrofits of various platforms and weapon systems
This also set the stage for lucrative upgrades and retrofits of various platforms and weapon systems, often via technology transfers from overseas original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). But the real accompanying jackpot lay in maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) contracts – long-term, high-margin deals for sustaining defence equipment across its life cycle.
These latter arrangements were not one-off sales, but long-term partnerships where arms vendors were effectively wedded to their clients’ weapon systems, bound by lucrative, prenup-like arrangements – the defence world’s equivalent of annuities. In effect, these MRO deals were long-haul marriages of convenience, with arms vendors locking in clients for years through ironclad prenups disguised as support agreements. Once hitched, the supplier rarely let go, and neither did their profits.
Defence sources, meanwhile, said India’s forthcoming tentative shopping list included advanced missiles, smart loitering munitions, GPS-guided 155mm artillery rounds, high-end surveillance gear, AI-enabled autonomous weapons and sundry network-centric, cyber and electronic warfare systems and weaponised supply chains.
And while there was a major thrust on Atmanirbharta – indigenous development of such capabilities –much of the technology, systems, and sub-assemblies required to achieve this still had to be urgently imported to sustain operational readiness and battlefield primacy, especially in the wake of Op Sindoor’s ambiguous outcome.
Consequently, India’s Rs. 40,000 crore allocation for this potential shopping spree is to be processed under Emergency Procurement-6 (EP-6), a route recently approved by the Ministry of Defence (MoD). This marks India’s sixth such measure – four were launched in the aftermath of the May 2020 military standoff with China in Ladakh, while the fifth focused on fast-tracking acquisitions for counter-insurgency operations in Kashmir.
Media reports quoting unnamed official sources over the weekend said EP-6 was intended to plug operational gaps revealed by Op Sindoor and bolster existing force multipliers for future use. As with earlier iterations, EP-6 permits each service to sidestep the MoD's notoriously glacial procurement process by greenlighting multiple contracts of up to Rs. 300 crores apiece, with all buys finalised within 40 days and with deliveries completed in 12 months.
Operation Sindoor watched with commercial anticipation
While approvals from financial advisors at service headquarters and the MoD remain mandatory, they are widely regarded as a rubber stamp under prevailing national security considerations, officials said.
Online research indicated that between May 7–10, Operation Sindoor was not watched with dread, but with commercial anticipation in the boardrooms of defence conglomerates across France, China, Israel, Turkey, the US, and Moscow, amongst others.
As real-time action played out through satellite imagery beamed across television screens in India and Pakistan, executives at multiple arms corporations looked on gleefully – watching not just the strikes, but their stock prices surge as their wares proved their combat worthiness, ensuring prospective sales.
The arsenal on display included France’s SCALP (Autonomous Long-Range Cruise Missile System) and HAMMER (Highly Agile Modular Munition Extended Range) air-to-ground precision missiles, launched from Indian Air Force (IAF) Rafale fighters against terrorist camps across Pakistan on the morning of May 7.
Israeli-origin bespoke Crystal Maze-II air-launched medium-range missiles, alongside Harop and Heron loitering munitions, reportedly proved their mettle under enemy fire, with the latter credited by Indian officials for disabling a Chinese-made HQ-9 air defence system in Lahore.
Even the shadowy Rampage air-to-surface missile – developed by Israel Military Industries which arms the IAF’s Su-30MKIs, MiG-29s and other combat platforms – broke cover, with local and foreign media reporting its effective deployment.
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On India’s northern borders, Pakistan’s deployment of Chinese-supplied Chengdu JF-10C fighters, equipped with advanced PL-15E beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles, rapidly gained legendary status within People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) marketing circles. The combat debut of both the JF-10C platform and the PL-15E missile system became a focal point of global military aviation discourse, fuelling speculation and hype.
Rumours swirling in the fog of war suggested that a PL-15E missile had successfully downed an Indian Air Force Rafale fighter, sparking a surge in shares of Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, the manufacturer of the JF-10C.
However, the IAF has neither confirmed nor denied these claims but Air Marshal A K Bharti, Director General of Air Operations, acknowledged last week that losses of combat aircraft were an inherent part of aerial warfare, without providing specific details.
Meanwhile, Operation Sindoor’s ripple effects extended beyond the India-Pakistan theatre and the vendors who had armed both. US and European defence firms too swiftly adapted their marketing strategies, privately showcasing aerial defence systems designed to counter the threat posed by the PL-15 missile’s extended engagement envelope.
Concurrently, Turkish UAV manufacturers Asisguard and Bayraktar too reported a significant spike in inquiries about their Sonegar and Bayraktar armed drones that Pakistan had deployed in swarm attacks on multiple Indian targets ranging from Kashmir to Bhuj in an over 1,500 km front on May 9 and 10.
But despite their scale and intensity, Indian forces had successfully neutralized these drone threats, underscoring the robustness of its multi-layered air defence capabilities.
Every war – or even the looming threat of one, like the earlier near-conflict with China five years ago in Ladakh – triggered a familiar ritual in Delhi: emergency procurements (EPs), fast-tracked tenders, and strategic leaks to the media hyping the induction of so-called ‘game-changing’ weapon systems.
'A textbook case in profitable tension'
These cycles invariably culminated in billion-dollar defence deals, reflecting both the urgency and the inertia that characterise India’s approach to military modernisation.
“Operation Sindoor is a textbook case in profitable tension – high on spectacle, low on clarity,” said military analyst Major General Amrit Pal Singh (retired). He further noted that a competitive narrative had emerged, aimed at proving that a major share of the weaponry, projectiles, and ordnance used in Op Sindoor were ‘exclusively’ indigenous.
However, this claim was not entirely accurate, as a significant portion of the equipment had either been directly imported or manufactured through technology transfers from OEMs, maintaining a continuing reliance on overseas cooperation which the MoD insistently discounted.
Other analysts noted that the persistent tension between Delhi and Islamabad had, paradoxically, smoothed the path for defence procurement and military spending on both sides with continuing rivalry keeping the respective forces in a state of high readiness, without escalating into full-scale war.
Given their conventional parity and the ever-present nuclear deterrent, neither nation appeared willing to risk total conflict. Instead, both seem content to operate within a ‘sweet spot of simmering conflict’, marked by ‘surgical strikes’, missile duels, airspace violations, artillery, mortar and small-arms exchanges along their disputed border in Kashmir, media wars, and jingoistic theatre as vividly illustrated by Op Sindoor.
“The reality of the India-Pakistan arms race and military escalation is that neither side has to actually win for arms merchants to profit,” said retired Brigadier Rahul Bhonsle of the Delhi-based Security Risks consultancy group. What matters is scaring the other side into ramping up defence procurement, which keeps them in business, he added.
In conclusion, Op Sindoor did more than just escalate military tensions between India and Pakistan: it opened up a new front in modern warfare: the battle to control belief. It offered something for everyone.
Politicians got to posture television journalists secured ratings – often fuelled by exaggerated and grossly inaccurate and partisan coverage – citizens were served a dose of patriotism, the military received upgraded toys and the arms dealers?
They simply got richer.
But on balance did Op Sindoor change anything substantive?
Yes, it affected materiel inventory levels. And as the saying goes, war, or preparing for one, is hell but for the arms bazaar the margins are divine.
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