Srinagar: Despite repeated statements by the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Union government, the restoration of democracy in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) appears unlikely to occur this year.
Politicians have raised such concerns citing that the Election Commission of India has been delaying the publication of the final electoral roll, a mandatory process before election dates are announced.
J&K has been without an elected government since June 2018, when the BJP withdrew support to Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party-led coalition government, citing “deteriorating security situation” in the erstwhile state. This is the third longest spell of bureaucratic rule in any state or Union Territory with a legislature in independent India’s history.
The ECI on August 8, Monday rescheduled the date for publication of electoral rolls in J&K to November 25.
As per earlier schedule, the exercise was expected to be completed by October 31, indicating that there was a possibility of holding elections in November-December in the Union Territory.
Since 1983, barring 1987 when the exercise was held in March, assembly elections in J&K have always been held between September and December.
With November 25 set as the final date for the publication of electoral rolls, it is unlikely that elections will be held at least till March 2023 as many far-flung areas in Kashmir and Chenab Valley remain inaccessible in peak winter due to snowfall.
However, holding elections in 2023 would not mean a lesser risk for BJP as any adverse poll outcome would be a big setback for the party before the 2024 general elections. Going into the 2024 Lok Sabha elections without holding assembly elections in J&K would be seen as a sizeable failure as the Union government has repeatedly claimed that elections in J&K would be held soon after the delimitation process is over.
Also read: With Kashmir Not Yet a Safe Bet for BJP, Modi May Prefer to Drag His Feet Over Assembly Polls
‘Four years of bureaucratic rule’
Retired judge Justice Hasnain Masoodi, who is MP from the Anantnag Lok Sabha constituency, said the delay in electoral revision shows that New Delhi does not want to hold elections in J&K at least in 2022.
“Bureaucratic rule cannot be a substitute for an elected government. An elected government is accessible and accountable to people while these elements are missing in a bureaucratic regime,” he said, adding that the people of J&K are “fed-up” of a bureaucratic rule.
J&K Peoples Conference senior leader and former minister Syed Basharat Bukhari said that the people of J&K hope for the restoration of democracy.
“It is unfortunate that we have been without an elected government for the past four years. The situation is such today that people are close to coming out on the streets to seek restoration of democracy in J&K,” he said, adding that the delay in elections defeats the essence of democracy.
“If they claim that Jammu & Kashmir has progressed and prospered under bureaucratic rule, why don’t they convert a few other states into Union Territories to put them on the path of progress too?” he asked.
Policy analyst and senior journalist Zaffar Choudhary told The Wire that any further delay in elections, due to technical and logistical reasons, would be much to the liking of the BJP which clearly wants the Union government’s rule to continue for a longer time.
“Against the backdrop of the changes made on August 5, 2019, a non-BJP government after elections would have the potential of a regular confrontation between J&K and the Union government. From a strategic perspective, the Union government would not like to see such a situation happening,” he said, adding that a longer Central rule would be preferred by the BJP rather than risking a government hostile to the August 5 changes.
A Kashmiri woman walks past an Indian security personnel as he stands guard in front of closed shops during restrictions, after scrapping of the special constitutional status for Kashmir by the Indian government, in Srinagar, August 22, 2019. Picture taken August 22, 2019. Photo: Reuters/Adnan Abidi/File Photo
Union government’s assurances on holding J&K elections
In his Independence Day speech on August 15, 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced that elections in J&K would be held after the delimitation process is completed. “Delimitation process is underway in Jammu and Kashmir. Once it is completed, an election will be held. Jammu and Kashmir will have its own chief minister and ministers. We are committed to this,” the prime minister had said.
Prime Minister Modi had made a similar assurance on June 24, 2021 after he had chaired an all-party meeting with Kashmiri politicians in New Delhi.
“Our priority is to strengthen grassroots democracy in J&K. Delimitation has to happen at a quick pace so that polls can happen and J&K gets an elected government that gives strength to J&K’s development trajectory,” the prime minister had tweeted after the meeting.
Also read: J&K All-Party Meeting: How the Modi Govt Made a Virtue Out of Necessity
In February this year, Union home minister Amit Shah had said that the polls in J&K would be held within six to eight months after the exercise is over. “The delimitation exercise is about to get over. After that, within six-eight months, the elections will be held. There is no confusion,” Shah had told News18 in an interview.
In June, Union defence minister Rajnath Singh said that the assembly elections in J&K are likely to be held by this year-end.
ECI’s role in delaying elections
The ECI has faced flak from different political parties since March 10, 2019, when it had announced that assembly elections in J&K cannot be held simultaneously with Lok Sabha polls due to security concerns.
The poll body had then appointed three special observers to review the situation in the Union Territory and suggest as to when assembly polls could be held there.
The observers had submitted a report to the ECI, saying there are three options for conducting polls in J&K. Firstly, elections could be held between May-end and June, thereby concluding them a week ahead of the start of the Amarnath Yatra on July 1. Second, holding the elections after September 15, 2019 when the yatra and monsoon will be over. Third, the polls could be conducted in November-December.
The ECI failed to hold polls within the stipulated six-month period from the dissolution of the J&K assembly. The J&K assembly was dissolved by governor Satya Pal Malik on November 21, 2018.
Meanwhile, the constitutional changes brought in by the BJP-led government on August 5, 2019 and enactment of the Jammu & Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019 paved the way for the delimitation of polls, which deferred the assembly elections indefinitely.
It took two years and two months for a panel headed by a former Supreme Court judge, Justice (retired) Ranjana Desai, to complete the delimitation exercise of J&K’s assembly and parliamentary segments.
On May 5, the delimitation commission unveiled its final order, giving six new seats to the Hindu-majority Jammu and only one to the Muslim-majority Kashmir.
In the new electoral map of J&K, 34 out of 43 seats of the Jammu region are Hindu-majority populated segments.
As mentioned before, this has been the third longest period of bureaucratic rule by New Delhi in the country.
The longest period of President’s rule in J&K had been for six years and 264 days (January 19, 1990 to October 9, 1996) when thousands of youngsters had crossed the Line of Control for arms training and the security situation had worsened in the state. The second longest period of President’s rule was witnessed in Punjab for four years and 259 days (June 11, 1987 to February 25, 1992).
The author is a Srinagar-based independent journalist.
