If the exit polls of the just concluded Karnataka assembly polls can serve as a rough guide, it looks like the Congress will find itself with a simple or a comfortable majority tomorrow, the day of the poll results. In the event that a coalition becomes necessary, the Congress will want to forge an alliance with the Janata Dal (Secular), which the exit polls estimate to gain around 25 seats in the 224-member assembly.

Putting aside our interest in why these parties came to perform how they did, let us run through the scenarios that might unfold in the wake of the declaration of results tomorrow.

Scenario one

The Congress gets a majority and forms the government, but its seriousness about putting together a strong opposition front against the NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections makes it invite the JD(S) to form part of the government. 

It will help to recall here that the Bharatiya Janata Party invited its National Democratic Alliance partners to be part of the central government despite winning a majority on its own in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The previous effort of the Congress and JD(S) at running a coalition in Karnataka in 2018 was, of course, disastrous, showing the total inability of these two political parties to share power and responsibilities in a manner befitting a mature democracy.

The paramount significance for a strong front of opposition parties to take on the NDA next year though should make them give another effort at running a coalition together with a determination to not repeat the mistakes of their past coalition experience.  Completely in the realm of the possible, such a gesture would send out the strongest hint yet about how serious the Congress party is about fighting the good fight next year.

Also read: Five Key Factors That Will Determine the Karnataka Election Results

Scenario two

The Congress falls short of a majority and forms a coalition government with the help of the JD(S). 

It is highly likely that the JD(S) will want to go with the Congress rather than the BJP in case the latter’s numbers allow for a coalition possibility too. HD Deve Gowda, former PM, recently declared that the JD(S) would be part of any Left-front led efforts at forming a coalition against the NDA in the next Lok Sabha election. The JD(S)’ backing of three candidates each from the CPI(M) and the Republican Party of India (Prakash Ambedkar faction) in these elections is also testimony to where its natural coalition inclinations lie.

If the Congress-JD(S) do come together this time, the dislike that the Congress leader, Siddaramaiah and the JD(S) leaders, H.D. Deve Gowda and H.D. Kumaraswamy, share towards each other will need to be set aside as a first step towards working together for the larger cause of India’s democratic well-being. In constituencies where the Congress and the JD(S) are in direct contest, their grassroots workers will share a history of political rivalry, but a willed effort on the part of the two parties can help ensure that that rivalry does not acquire salience in times of their coalition.

Also read: Karnataka: In Quest For Majority, Congress and BJP Look to Weaken Each Other in Their Strongholds

Scenario three

The Congress gets a full majority and runs the government on its own. This will open up the scope for the BJP and the JD (S) to come together on the NDA platform. The JD(S) will want an ally since it cannot expect to form a government on its own in the future and the BJP stands to gain hugely in the next Lok Sabha elections if it ties up with the JD(S).

And, if it turns out that the Muslim voters of Karnataka have consolidated behind the Congress yet again in these elections – perhaps in response to the Congress manifesto promise of banning the Bajrang Dal if the latter acts in violation of the constitution – the decision of the JD(S) to back the BJP will arrive more easily since the support of Muslim voters in numerous constituencies, where its winning performance rode on the combined backing of the Vokkaliga and Muslim voters, has now turned elusive. In such a situation, the large Vokkaliga support base of the JD(S) might turn cold towards the Muslims, a move that will tragically alter the hospitable cultural character of the region.

Lacking, at present, a grassroots support base in most of the old Mysore region, which accounts for 61 constituencies, the BJP’s acquisition of a cultural and political foothold here will likely mean that the Congress has to now take on the BJP across the entire state. The Congress might brace itself towards a bi-polar polity in Karnataka viewing it on par with the political situation in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, but the Gujarat situation where it hasn’t been able to form the government for over 25 years cannot be ruled out for it here. Will this bring in a political situation analogous to the one seen in Rajasthan or Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress and the BJP get a chance at forming the government periodically or to the one found in Gujarat where the Congress hasn’t been able to form the government for over 25 years? It is hard to tell.

In all these scenarios, the onus of being politically creative and responsible and morally magnanimous is on the Congress party. How it cultivates its relations with the JD(S) will decide the shape of the democratic future of Karnataka and perhaps that of India too.

Chandan Gowda is Ramakrishna Hegde Chair Professor of Decentralization and Development, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bengaluru.

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