Bihar Elections: Nitish Kumar Is Wrong to Blame Chirag Paswan for JD(U)'s Poor Show

Patna: In his first response to the assembly election results on Tuesday, Nitish Kumar blamed Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) chief Chirag Paswan for the Janata Dal (United)'s horrible show – the chief minister’s party was reduced to 43 seats against its own tally of 71 in the 2015 elections.

“Some people tried to spread confusion; they also succeeded in doing so,” Nitish said, talking to reporters at his party office on Tuesday evening.

Playing the blame game

While Nitish Kumar avoids referring to people directly by their names, it was easy for the reporters present there to figure out that he was talking about Chirag Paswan and the LJP.

They pointedly asked whether the NDA would take action against Chirag Paswan, to which Nitish replied, “It’s for the BJP to take a call.” Although it is unclear what action the alliance can take, since the LJP quit the coalition.

Nitish’s remarks were preceded by JD(U) spokesperson K.C. Tyagi, who categorically said, “The LJP damaged the prospect of the JD(U) in 25 to 30 seats. Had the LJP not pitted its candidates against us, the JD(U)’s tally would have gone beyond 80 seats. The BJP should consider taking action against Chirag Paswan – an NDA component at the Centre.”

A few questions arise: Were Chirag Paswan and his party solely responsible for the JD(U)’s poor show? Did the voters vote for the LJP candidates against the JD(U) purely out of confusion? Would the people who voted for the LJP have chosen the JD(U) if the former did not field its candidates?

Also read: Nitish Kumar May Be Quiet Now, but His Compromise With BJP Rings Loud

An analysis by pollsters provides answers to these questions. It reflects the Bihar chief minister’s “contrived ploy” to cover up his failures and massive erosion in his popularity by making Chirag – son of the recently decease Ram Vilas Paswan – a proverbial “whipping boy”.

The figures suggest that the LJP candidates garnered more votes than the margin of defeat of the JD(U) candidates in as many as 32 seats. K.C. Tyagi explained: “It was a conspiracy. Had the LJP not fielded its candidates, the NDA would have won two-thirds of the seats in Bihar.” But is this true?

Senior journalist Kanhaiya Bhelari, who travelled across the state to cover elections, says it is downright dishonest for Nitish Kumar to blame Chirag for his failure. "Chirag had specifically attacked the chief minister for the latter’s failure on key fronts, like the mishandling of the COVID-19 situation, the influx of over 30 lakh migrant labourers into the state, corruption embedded at all levels of governance and poor education and health facilities. He had made it clear in advance that he was pitting his candidates against the JD(U) and had specifically asked the anti-Nitish voters to vote for his party. There is no reason to believe that the those who voted for the LJP did so out of 'confusion' rather than their conviction to vote against Nitish”, he said.

If analysed empirically, the LJP's candidates – fielded mainly against the JD(U) and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) – worked as an ‘outlet’ for voters who were seething in anger against Nitish. In the process, the LJP's candidates may indeed have disallowed the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan to reap the full dividends of the anti-incumbency factor against Nitish.

LJP leader Chirag Paswan. Photo: PTI

Chirag's place in NDA

During his campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi praised Ram Vilas Paswan for staying as his ministerial colleague until the very end of his life. Modi, however, kept silent about Chirag's rebellion. It was Modi's hard-boiled assessment that Chirag, who had declared himself as his "hanuman", worked to “neutralise” the impact of the anti-incumbency sentiment, which was specifically against Nitish.

While the JD(U) may want some action to be taken against the LJP, it depleted score in the assembly means that it has effectively lost the wherewithal to put pressure on Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. Chirag, meanwhile, helped oversee the expansion of the LJP's footprint – the party has secured nearly 25 lakh votes.

Chirag has a long political life ahead. Apart from the support that the party has enjoyed among Dalits and particularly the Paswan caste, this election has shown that the party was able to mobilise support from upper caste groups too. The only precondition for Chirag is to follow in his redoubtable father's footsteps and not get bogged down in the “conspiracy theories” that are being floated against him by the JD(U) mandarins.

Also Read: Chirag Paswan's Manoeuvre Has Essayed a Crucial Moment in Bihar's Politics

Nitish’s “ploy” to shift the blame for his poor showing in the elections on to Chirag will be short-lived. With the passage of time, the realisation will set in for Nitish that there anti-incumbency sentiment had accumulated against him and he marginally scraped through, riding piggyback on the BJP. The NDA legislators will elect him as their leader and he will take oath as the chief minister for the seventh time in the days to follow.

But that will be the beginning of the twilight in his political life. It was not without reason that he told the voters at his last election rally in Seemanchal: “Yeh mera antim chunav hai (It’s my last election)”.  Nitish – known for his measured words – would have thought a lot before speaking.

Nalin Verma is a senior journalist and the author of Gopalganj to Raisina – My Political Journey, Lalu Prasad Yadav's autobiography. He has also authored The Greatest Folk Tales of Bihar.

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