After a decade-long hiatus, democracy has returned to Jammu and Kashmir with Omar Abdullah being sworn in as the first Chief Minister under its new Union Territory status. Following a Supreme Court directive, the central government successfully conducted the assembly elections and lifted President’s Rule, paving the way for Abdullah’s government.
However, his administration faces significant challenges. While the elections mark a return to democratic governance, the restoration of J&K’s statehood remains unresolved. Key powers still rest with the Lieutenant Governor (LG), meaning critical decisions concerning finances, security, and appointments will require LG approval. This limits Abdullah’s ability to fulfill major campaign promises.
Additionally, Abdullah must navigate a polarised political landscape, balancing the divergent interests of the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley and the BJP-dominated Hindu-majority Jammu, as starkly reflected in the election results. His primary task will be to bridge the gap between these two regions to ensure neither feels marginalised.
Historically, mechanisms such as the Upper House in the state legislature, which allowed for the inclusion of diverse voices, helped manage these disparities, but such institutions were abolished following the reading down of Article 370. The absence of these structures adds another layer of difficulty for Abdullah, testing his leadership and influencing the future of J&K’s political landscape.
J&K cannot have a large council of ministers
The legislative assembly in J&K consists of 90 seats+ 5 nominated members by the LG, and the law limits the size of the council of ministers to just 10% of the total members – meaning Omar Abdullah can only appoint nine ministers. With coalition politics at play and the necessity to maintain regional and religious balance, this is a complex task.
“In a bold move, Abdullah’s National Conference has made unprecedented efforts to reach out to Jammu, a region where the BJP secured 29 out of 43 constituencies. By appointing a Deputy Chief Minister, Surinder Choudhary and two ministers from Jammu, Satish Sharma and Javed Rana in his Five-member cabinet, Abdullah is signaling a shift beyond religious lines, demonstrating a commitment to inclusive governance,” senior journalist Zafar Choudhary.
“This outreach required courage and statesmanship, as it extended beyond the National Conference’s traditional stronghold in Kashmir to engage regions and communities that have not supported the party in decades,” added Choudhary.
This new political environment also creates opportunities for the historically marginalised Rajouri-Poonch region, offering them a significant role in the broader politics between Jammu and Kashmir. Notably, this is the first time since 1975 that both the Chief Minister and the deputy chief minister come from the same party, reminiscent of Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah’s first cabinet.
In terms of regional representation, Abdullah’s government could set a new precedent for bridging Jammu and Kashmir’s political divides. His cabinet includes five ministers – Sakina Masood(Ito), Javed Dar, Javed Rana, Surinder Choudhary and Satish Sharma. Meanwhile, Congress and their five legislative members have chosen not to accept any portfolios until statehood is restored.
Considering the urgent demand for change and improved governance among the people of Jammu and Kashmir, it is imperative that the central government ensures smooth functioning of the administration.
A collaborative approach between the Union Territory and the Centre is essential to develop a comprehensive policy framework that effectively addresses the long-standing grievances of the people of J&K . Ultimately, to govern a region as geopolitically and culturally complex as J&K, the restoration of full statehood is crucial for achieving long-term stability and responsive governance.
Enhanced role of LG and the question of restoring statehood looms large
The recently introduced ‘Transaction of Business of the Government of Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir (Second Amendment) Rules’ dated July 12, 2024, have further amplified the powers of the lieutenant governor.
Also Read: Latest Changes in Government Rules Reveal Statehood for J&K to Remain a Distant Dream
This has significant implications for the NC-Congress alliance, as they may be unable to fulfil many of their promises made in their manifesto without the LG’s approval. While the elections mark a return to democratic governance, the Chief Minister and council of ministers will have limited authority where the LG retains discretionary powers.
This could render them unable to deliver on key promises. For instance, under the Reorganisation Act, they cannot move a financial bill without the concurrence of the LG, which makes it impossible for them to bring about changes such as abolishing or amending property tax without LG approval.
This notification is part of a broader series of amendments to the existing business rules and policy framework in J&K over the past five years, including the 2019 Transaction of Business Rules and Domicile laws. The Union government has continuously emphasised its strategy to maintain stringent oversight and control over critical administrative functions in the region.
The central question remains: if statehood is an inalienable right of the people of J&K and ultimate power should rest with its people, why has statehood not been restored after the peaceful conduct of the assembly elections?
Why is J&K moving toward an administrative structure where the powers of the lieutenant governor and chief secretary are expanded, and the Union government retains the authority to amend or repeal any law made by the legislative assembly?
The governance model in Jammu and Kashmir is more akin to that of Delhi, where legislative power is restricted, but J&K, with its unique geographical, political, and administrative complexities, cannot be equated with other Union Territories.
Recent amendments and their impact on future governance
A key amendment under the ‘Transaction of Business of the Government of Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir (Second Amendment) Rules, 2024,’ is the addition of sub-rule 2, which requires any proposal requiring the finance department’s concurrence related to ‘Police’, ‘Public Order’, ‘All India Service’, and ‘Anti-Corruption Bureau’ to receive the LG’s approval through the Chief Secretary.
This rule, coupled with others, grants the LG enhanced discretionary powers over these critical sectors, limiting the Chief Minister’s authority over crucial areas like law enforcement and public order. For example, the Chief Minister cannot issue transfer or posting orders for All India Services officers or senior officials. These decisions must be processed through the Chief Secretary and require the LG’s approval.
Similarly, the appointment of the Advocate General, a role previously filled under the Governor’s purview when J&K had its constitution, will now be subject to the LG’s approval. Transfer and posting of cadre officers will also require the LG’s nod. Additionally, proposals falling under the LG’s discretionary powers, such as financial bills, cannot be tabled before the council of ministers for deliberation.
These amendments point to an increasingly centralised model of governance in J&K, raising concerns about how much autonomy Omar Abdullahs elected government will truly have under this framework. For example, under the amended rules, the LG has the authority to requisition papers from any department, and the respective department secretary must comply.
This centralised control reduces the legislative assembly’s authority and further consolidates power in the hands of the LG.
Striking the delicate balance between Kashmir and Jammu.
The greatest political challenge for Omar Abdullah’s government will be to balance the distinct regions of Jammu and Kashmir and manage a highly polarized legislative assembly. Both regions differ vastly in terms of ethnicity, culture, and demographics. While most of the seats in Kashmir and the Pir Panjal valley were secured by the NC-Cong Alliance, Jammu’s four Hindu-majority districts voted decisively for the BJP.
This stark division risks deepening the regional divide. You cannot run a government in J&K if all your members are from part of J&K. Out of the 55 members of the NC-Congress alliance in the legislative assembly, 50 are Muslims, while all 29 BJP members are Hindus.
The National Conference (NC) and Congress alliance swept the elections in Kashmir, winning 35 out of 56 seats, but the BJP dominated in the Dogra heartland of Udhampur-Jammu-Samba-Kathua. This stark imbalance poses a challenge to governance and representation, as the interests of both regions must be carefully balanced.
This complicated situation could have been avoided if the centre had not abolished the Legislative Council, which once allowed for greater representation and balance. In the past, the Upper House of the State Legislature provided a mechanism to bridge such divides, but it was abolished under the Reorganisation Act of 2019.
With no upper house, and a legislative assembly where most of the NC’s representatives are from Kashmir, it will be difficult for the government to avoid accusations of bias from the Jammu region. Now, Jammu’s Hindu population finds itself in a situation where the government and its ministers could all come from a single religious background, provided the ruling party is composed entirely of members from that religion.
This scenario highlights a major oversight by those who designed the J&K Reorganisation Act, as they did not foresee the kind of difficulties the region is now facing.
Abdullah will need to work to ensure that Jammu does not feel sidelined, particularly given that the majority of the legislative members come from Kashmir. For him finding new ways to ensure inclusive governance will be paramount.
Reviving ailing economic sectors and alarming unemployment rate
The abrupt policy changes in last five years have pushed major economic sectors like industries, traders, transport into crisis. Public discourse has largely centered on the tourism boom in Kashmir, overshadowing the struggling economic sectors in J&K primarily the Jammu region, which have been the hardest hit in recent years. Unemployment rate is highest in J&K after. To create new jobs for the youth is going to be the biggest challenge for this government.
Jammu is a unique cosmopolitan hub comprising diverse communities such as Dogra Rajputs, West Pakistani refugees, Muslims, Sikhs, Panjabi, Paharis, Gujjar and Kashmiri Pandits. Despite this socio-cultural diversity, the region’s geographic position places it at the periphery of India, limiting trade opportunities both across international borders and with other states.
Historically, the erstwhile Article 370 shielded Jammu’s industries from external competition by maintaining a protectionist environment. However, the abrupt policy shifts following its reading down have exposed local industries to competitive pressures without the requisite structural adjustments or phased integration into the national market.
Presently, Jammu and Kashmir remains heavily reliant on central grants, which account for 42% of its revenue a stark indicator of its fiscal vulnerability. Another challenge for the future government would be to deal with J&K’s rising Rs. 1.12 lakh crore debt.
Only through comprehensive and inclusive policies can Jammu and Kashmir hope to achieve a balanced economic revival that benefits all its sectors and its people, fostering sustainable growth and equitable development in the region.
In the face of these challenges, the people of J&K are eager to see how this new government will operate under a heavily centralised governance model, and whether it will be able to bring about the changes that the electorate expects. As the region moves forward, the balance of power between the LG, the legislative assembly, and the Chief Minister will continue to shape the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir.
Kanwal Singh is a policy analyst from J&K.