The South Asian geopolitical landscape is fraught with instability, posing chronic migraines for India’s foreign policy. From Sri Lanka’s economic collapse to Pakistan’s perennial brink of bankruptcy, Bangladesh’s political uncertainties, Nepal’s revolving-door governance, Afghanistan’s Taliban resurgence, Myanmar’s military corruption, and the Maldives’ political volatility, India faces a complex and precarious neighbourhood. This scenario demands a strategic and sophisticated approach to diplomacy that can navigate these turbulent waters and safeguard India’s national interests.
A ring of instability
Sri Lanka, our southern neighbour, has experienced an unprecedented economic crisis, leading to severe political instability. Bangladesh faces uncertainties with shifts in leadership and perhaps governance systems, while Nepal’s governance, at best, remains unpredictable with frequent changes in prime ministers. Pakistan, perpetually on the edge of economic collapse, poses security and diplomatic challenges. Afghanistan, under Taliban rule, presents a security threat that extends beyond the region. Myanmar’s military regime is mired in corruption and repression, and the Maldives continues to oscillate between political aspirations and instability. This environment of everlasting turmoil has profound implications for India’s security, economic growth, and diplomatic strategies.
The interconnectedness of the South Asian neighbourhood is both a geographic and a socio-political reality. The events in one country often ripple through the region, influencing political, economic, and social dynamics in neighbouring states. This interconnectedness means that instability in one nation can quickly permeate borders, creating a domino effect that can engulf the entire region, including India.
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For instance, economic turmoil in Sri Lanka has already begun to impact trade routes and supply chains. At the same time, political unrest in Bangladesh can lead to new refugee influxes and heightened border tensions. Nepal’s political instability affects trans-Himalayan connectivity projects, and Pakistan’s economic struggles exacerbate regional security threats, including terrorism and insurgency, which can easily spill over into Indian territory.
This regional contagion effect is reminiscent of the Arab Spring, where uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa spread rapidly from Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, Syria, and beyond, igniting widespread chaos and conflict.
South Asia, with its historical, cultural, and economic ties, is similarly vulnerable to such a cascade of instability. The fragile political environments and common socio-economic challenges mean that unrest in one country can ignite similar movements in others, driven by shared grievances and amplified by modern communication technologies.
In this volatile landscape, India’s stability could be jeopardised by regional upheavals, necessitating a robust and anticipatory diplomatic strategy to manage and mitigate the risks.
The case for a specialised neighbourhood foreign service
Considering these challenges, Indian diplomacy in the neighbourhood requires a radical rethink. A proactive, strategic, and nuanced engagement with our neighbours is essential. Central to this new approach is establishing a specialised neighbourhood foreign service (SNFS) – an elite cadre within the Indian Foreign Service (IFS) dedicated to managing relations with South Asia. This SNFS would be integral to the IFS yet regarded as a premier testing ground for the accelerated advancement of foreign service officers.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the Officer Trainees of the 2013 batch of Indian Foreign Service, in New Delhi on June 04, 2015. Credit: pmindia.gov.in
Maintaining the professionalism and autonomy of the SNFS is paramount for its effective functioning. A clear distinction between elected officials (politicians) and career diplomats is essential, particularly in India’s immediate neighbourhood. This separation becomes even more critical in border regions, where local politicians often have vested interests and personal connections across the borders. They may sometimes engage in cross-border political manoeuvring to secure mutual benefits, which can undermine national diplomatic objectives and compromise the integrity of foreign policy.
For the SNFS to operate effectively, it must remain insulated from such political influences. Diplomatic decisions should be driven by national interests and strategic considerations rather than local political agendas. Ensuring this professional distance will enable SNFS officers to engage with neighbouring countries impartially and constructively without interfering with partisan politics. This autonomy will enhance India’s ability to manage regional dynamics more efficiently, foster stable and productive relationships with its neighbours, and safeguard against the potential risks of politicized diplomacy.
The SNFS should attract the best and brightest diplomats through rigorous selection processes that assess their crisis management skills, cultural intelligence, and political acumen. Training for SNFS officers must be specialised, focusing on the region’s unique challenges, including regional politics, economics, and security issues. Language skills, cultural studies, and an in-depth understanding of local governance structures should be integral to this training.
To make SNFS postings desirable, it is imperative to implement a comprehensive incentivization strategy. Competitive salaries and bonuses, career advancement opportunities, and recognition of the strategic importance of these roles are essential. Ensuring that successful stints in the SNFS lead to accelerated promotions and prestigious future postings can attract top talent. Performance-based incentives, such as monetary bonuses and guaranteed postings in desirable locations, will further enhance the attractiveness of these roles.
Supporting the personal and professional lives of SNFS officers is equally essential. Providing secure housing, quality education for their children, and robust healthcare facilities can alleviate the challenges of living in volatile regions. Opportunities for further education and training, such as advanced degrees or specialized courses, can enhance their skills and career prospects. Public recognition and awards for outstanding service can also motivate and reward these diplomats.
The importance of early warning systems
To effectively manage the complexities of South Asia, India must develop robust early warning systems dedicated to its neighbourhood. Recent global events highlight the critical need for such mechanisms. Western think tanks, despite their presence and resources, failed to predict Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Similarly, international think tanks with many years of presence in Sri Lanka did not foresee the country’s economic collapse. These failures underscore the necessity of an early warning system closely aligned with national interests and managed by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).
An MEA-owned and governed early warning system would enable India to anticipate and prepare for its neighbourhood’s political, economic, and social upheavals. This system should utilize data from various sources, including intelligence agencies, diplomatic missions, and public sector think tanks. By integrating traditional intelligence with new technologies such as big data analytics and artificial intelligence, India can develop a predictive model that provides timely and accurate assessments of regional developments.
Public sector bodies, including public sector think tanks, should play a central role in this early warning system. These institutions, closely aligned with government objectives, are better positioned to provide unbiased and strategic insights. Collaboration with academic institutions and private sector experts can further enhance the system’s analytical capabilities. Regular scenario planning exercises and crisis simulations should be conducted to ensure readiness and to refine the predictive models.
The way forward
To navigate this geopolitical landscape, India must blend realism with idealism. Realism dictates acknowledging the instability and preparing for worst-case scenarios, while idealism inspires a vision of a stable, prosperous, cooperative South Asia. Establishing a Specialized Neighbourhood Foreign Service is critical to achieving this vision.
While crucial, focusing solely on countering Chinese influence in the neighbourhood will not comprehensively advance India’s strategic interests. Such a myopic approach risks overlooking the more profound, systemic issues contributing to regional instability and hindering India’s interests. Conducting a thorough introspection to identify and address our failures is imperative. By understanding the root causes of these shortcomings, India can develop a more nuanced and effective foreign policy strategy. To this end, India must invest in creating an interconnected pool of knowledge and expertise that will enable India to anticipate and respond to regional challenges proactively. Moreover, it will foster innovative solutions beyond mere reactionary measures to Chinese actions.
Sunoor Verma is the President of The Himalayan Dialogues and an international expert in Leadership-Strategic Communication and Global Health Diplomacy. More on www.sunoor.net
