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The Maharashtra Election Puzzle

Why the numbers don't add up in the state.
Voters line up in Maharashtra. Photo: X/@ECISVEEP
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Fact one

On October 19, 2024, the Mahavikas Aghadi or MVA alliance parties had written to the Election Commission of India that Bharatiya Janata Party is engaged in massive voter list fraud, which includes deletion of 10,000 votes of MVA supporters in each constituency.

The EC was also informed that BJP was adding 10,000 fake voters to hide 10,000 names being deleted by them.

It was suspected that total number of names of MVA supporters deleted from the voter list after the Lok Sabha elections could be nearly 30,00,000 in the state.

Impact one

The votes of three main parties of MVA decreased by 32,80,000 from Loksabha to Vidhansabha elections! Is it a coincidence?

Fact two

MVA had also informed Election Commission that BJP was also fraudulently adding new names to the list.

Impact two

In five months after Lok Sabha elections 2024, the number of total voters in Maharashtra increased by 47,00,000.

While there was an increase of only 37,00,000 voters in Maharashtra in five years from 2019 Lok Sabha elections to 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the votes of three main parties of BJP alliance increased by 67,70,000 in assembly elections vis-a-vis the Lok Sabha elections.

Did 47,00,000 new voters contribute significantly to the increase of BJP votes?

Fact three

Transfer of Rs 1,500 per month to women under Ladki Bahin Yojna is being talked of as a major factor behind the victory of the BJP alliance. Surveys had predicted an impact of 2-3% for the Mahayuti.

Impact three

A 3% increase translates to almost 20,00,000 votes out of 640,00,000 votes polled in the assembly elections.

If one removes 47,00,000 new voters from Mahayuti’s lead of 67,70,000 votes, the lead remains 20,70,000! Amazing coincidence?

Fact four

NCP’s Ajit Pawar faction got 58,10,000 votes and won 41 seats.

NCP’s Sharad Pawar faction got 72,80,000 votes and won 10 seats.

Interestingly, the two factions of NCP were contesting against each other in 39 seats, of which Ajit Pawar’s party won 33.

Is this precise, robotic surgery normally possible?

Another fun fact

The vote lost by Congress and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Bal Thackeray) from the Lok Sabha to assembly polls totals 47,10,000. New voters added were 47,00,000.

Gurdeep Singh Sappal is a permanent member of the Congress Working Committee.

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