Why Manipur's Assembly Session Reflects the State’s Struggle With Crisis Management

In the recently concluded fifth session of the 12th Manipur Legislative Assembly beginning from February 28 till March 5, the government discussed and adopted several resolutions, most of which are largely centered on the present crisis and legal means to overcome it.

The House resolved to implement the National Register of Citizens (NRC) Act, 2023, pressed the central leadership to abrogate the Suspension of Operation (SOO) with Kuki militants, and introduced the Renaming of Places Act, 2024, among others. These resolutions were taken with the intention of bringing a lasting solution to the present crisis between the people belonging to the Meitei and Kuki community.

Interestingly, to Meitei legislators, it also represents the fulfillment of the oath they undertook in the hands of Arambai Tenggol on 24 January at Kangla in Imphal.

The nature of the discussion in the House highlights how helpless and vulnerable democracy has become for the minority communities.

It was the second sitting of the House since violence erupted in Manipur in May last year.

Since then Kuki legislators no longer bothered to participate in the session.

Taking advantage of the absence of enough tribal leaders, Imphal-based legislators engaged themselves in vilifying certain groups and communities as the source of all problems in Manipur. Every lawmaker pointed to the illegal influx from Myanmar as solely responsible for the violence.

By doing so, it can be said that the state put itself on an equal footing to the objectives of extremist elements such as Arambai Tenngol, Meitei Leepun, and other militant groups. Such offences committed by individuals and organisations receive immunity against legal proceedings as long as they serve the underlying objectives. Thus, the session was silent on the looting of 6,000 weapons, the intelligence failure, the government’s inability to control violence of these proportions, attack on Kuki settlements, and the resettlement and rehabilitation of affected Kukis.

Instead, the Manipur government seems to have thrown all options open, from legislative measures such as implementing the NRC to employing brute force to remove those whom they dubbed as illegal immigrants.

The violence in Manipur which began with the demand and opposition to the Scheduled Tribe (ST) status of Meiteis slowly morphed into a citizenship row where the state government and the majority community targeted a specific community as non-indigenous.

Amidst all this, chief minister N. Biren Singh has been the centre of attention to all policies and actions. How genuine are the cases raised by political figures such as Singh, in the House and outside, deserve serious attention.

Biren’s claim in the House

On the third day of the Assembly session, Singh gave numbers on the increasing population in certain Kuki-dominated areas such as Kangpokpi, Tengnoupal, Chandel, Churachandpur, and Pherjawl districts. He said that the decadal growth, from 2012 to 2022, of Kuki electors reached 51% from 2012 (see Table 1).

Table 1: Decadal growth of electors in Kuki-dominated constituencies, as presented by chief minister N. Biren Singh on the 12th Assembly Session March 1, 2024.

Singh’s statement highlights the increase in the number of voters in Kuki areas to 20-50% in the last decade, which if true is indeed alarming.

However, the above figures, as presented in the House, demand a careful scrutiny before jumping into hasty conclusions.

The data of electors in legislative constituencies is revised every ten years by the office of the state's chief election commissioner. Any change in the electors is maintained in the office of the election commissioner of the state alone. Singh’s bold claim in the house, however, is at odds with the official figures from the state’s own election office. It remains unclear from where the chief minister sourced his data.

Also read: Manipur: Both Centre and State Played a Principal Role in Ethnic Violence, Claims Fact-Finding Team

Decadal figures as per the election office

Contrary to the chief minister’s statement in the House, the office of the election commissioner presents a different picture of the decadal growth of the population of the Kuki community.

In 2022, legislative constituencies such as Tengnoupal, Saikul, Kangpokpi, and Thanlon registered a negative growth in their electorate size, whereas Saitu, Tipaimukh, Henglep, Churachandpur, Saikot, and Singhat registered some growth in electorate size (see Table 2).

Churachandpur and Saikot constituencies, however, registered a high decadal growth in the electorate size.

The reason for this drastic increase for the two constituencies is not far to seek.

Firstly, Churachandpur town – which includes Saikot constituency – is one of the most urbanised hill towns, attracting Kuki people migrating from different districts within the state in search of better life and opportunities.

Second, the town also has an increasing presence of non-tribal communities, including Meiteis, who are predominantly engaged in trade and commerce.

Third, it is a well-known fact that many Kukis who were affected by the Kuki-Naga conflicts during the mid-1990s have incrementally relocated to Churachandpur. Therefore, the high growth in the two constituencies is due to intra-state movement of people.

The overall decadal growth in the Kuki-dominated constituencies is as low as 10.2%.

Table 2: Decadal growth of electors in Kuki-dominated constituencies, as per the statistical report of 2012 election and result sheet 2022 election, available at the State Election Commissioner, Manipur.

On the other hand, assembly constituencies where Nagas got elected as MLAs saw a steady increase of electors in the previous decade, as per figures available at the state election office.

Taking the case of 10 such Naga constituencies, the overall decadal growth rate stands at about 19.9%, with least or no influx from the bordering states and countries (see Table 3).

Given the consistent growth of electors in the Naga areas, the reaction to the 10.2% growth in Kuki areas seems overly dramatic and filled with apprehension.

Table 3: Decadal growth of electors in the Naga-dominated constituencies, as per the statistical report of 2012 election and result sheet 2022 election, available at the State Election Commissioner, Manipur

Similarly, the valley districts of Manipur with 40 legislative constituencies are dominated by Meitei and Meitei-Pangal communities.

According to figures from the election office, it experienced a decadal growth of 18%, slightly lower than the growth in constituencies in Naga-dominated areas (see table 4). This growth is not even close to that observed in Kuki-dominated areas, which witnessed a growth of 10.2% in the last ten years.

Table 4: Decadal growth of electors in valley constituencies, as per the statistical report of 2012 election and result sheet 2022 election, available at the State Election Commissioner, Manipur

Also read: Special: Manipur Violence Broke Out Days Before Mha Was to Finalise Kuki Accord That CM Did Not Support

District-wise population growth from 1981 to 2011

There are numerous cases where certain individuals and organisations claim that the population of the Kukis has exponentially risen in Manipur. For instance, M. Rameshwar, a legislator representing the Kakching district, said that the Kuki population increased at the rate of 75% in 2022-24.

However, if we look at official sources, the picture looks different.

Table 5: Decadal Population Growth, 1981-2011

However, decadal census data shows an average growth of Kuki population in Churachandpur and normal growth in Senapati and Chandel where they constitute roughly half of the population of the district (see Table 5).

In the 2001 Census, three sub-divisions (constituencies) which reported an abnormal decadal growth rate were Naga-dominated divisions of Mao-Maram (143.12%), Paomata (122.64%) and Purul (168.78%) sub-divisions, not of the Kukis.

Atrocities against a particular community

N. Biren Singh’s statement in the House pointing the decadal growth of voters in Kuki-dominated constituencies to 51% from the previous decade is a matter of deep regret. This in fact is misleading that warrants attention from responsible authorities. Information from the office of the state election commission shows a decadal growth in Kuki areas at 10.2%, which is far below the population growth in Naga and Meitei areas.

Moreover, the attitude of the current Manipur government, as evident in the last assembly sitting, exemplifies the state of anarchy in a majoritarian democracy. Every session of the House exhibits the character of the far-right majoritarian democracy.

The constant vilification of Kukis on social media platforms and in the House reminds us of the tactics of Joseph Goebbels, the propaganda minister of Adolf Hilter.

Goebbels' famous lines, “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it,” seems to be well applied today to the ignorant masses.

The violence which initially stemmed from debates over the Meitei's Schedule Tribe status has now evolved into a complex immigrant-refugee crisis.

By framing the violence as a consequence of the refugee crisis fuelled by drug cartels, the state government not only captures the attention of central leaders but also rationalises its actions toward its own citizens in the early stages of the conflict.

Furthermore, it mobilises the entire Meitei population, as well as militant organisations like the UNLF(P) and right-wing associations such as Arambai Tenggol and Meitei Leepun, in the campaign against 'illegal immigrants,' a term often loosely applied by the Meiteis to refer to the Kuki group.

Having said that, there's no doubt that illegal movements from neighbouring countries have taken place with loosely implemented border policies. And it is not a case of the Indo-Burma frontier alone.

However, the claim of a massive increase in the population of Kukis is not reflected in any of the official records in the past four decades.

Singh’s latest data of above-normal growth in the voter list of Kukis, as presented in the House, seems to be a means to garner mass support and continue further state-sponsored aggression towards its own citizens who voted him to power.

The author is interested in northeast history, ethnic-relations and conflict resolutions. He can be reached at lienchongloi@gmail.com

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