COVID-19 Led to Decline in Life Expectancy in India, Reveal Three Analyses

New Delhi: The year-on-year trend of increasing life expectancy in India, observed for the last few decades, declined for the first time in 2021, albeit marginally. From 2016-20, the life expectancy in India was 70 years. From 2017-21, the recorded life expectancy dropped to 69.8 years, according to SRS abridged life tables.

Since the 1970s, the life expectancy had continued to increase by a couple of years to a few decimal years on a year-on-year basis.  For example, the life expectancy 69 years between 2013-17, 69.4 years (2014-2018), 69.7 years (2015-19) and 70 years (2016-20) as per SRS abridged tables.

Between 2017-21, this trend changed and life expectancy dropped to 69.8 years from 70 years in 2016-20, a difference of 0.2 years.

According to a World Health Organisation (WHO) update, life expectancy in India was 70.7 years in 2019, 70.2 in 2020 and 67.3 in 2021, clearly revealing the impact of the pandemic.

The life expectancy recorded in 2010 was 67.5 years, according to the WHO, in India. Thus, COVID-19 brought the life expectancy down to what it was 15 years ago.

The preliminary results of another recent study, which is yet to be published, conducted by researchers at International Institute for Population Sciences pointed out that life expectancy in 2021 declined by 1.6 years in the deadly second wave of COVID-19 in India. The study, as reported in Times of India, found that Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana witnessed the sharpest decline, where life expectancy dropped by 3 years.

This preliminary analysis came in the backdrop of the Union government releasing Samples Registration System and Civil Registration System data for 2021 which revealed that the official death count of COVID-19 in India was seven times lesser than the estimated deaths.  

Also read: Covid Excess Death Study Revives Debate on Government's No-Undercounting Claim

This decline in life expectancy was in line with the global trends as far the COVID-19 years are concerned. In fact, according to the WHO, Covid-19 eliminated a decade of progress in life expectancy around the world. 

“Between 2019 and 2021, global life expectancy dropped by 1.8 years to 71.4 years (back to the level of 2012),” the WHO said.

“The 2024 report also highlights how the effects have been felt unequally across the world. The WHO regions for the Americas and South-East Asia were hit hardest, with life expectancy dropping by approximately 3 years and healthy life expectancy by 2.5 years between 2019 and 2021,” the WHO added. 

Life expectancy decline in line with other health indicators

The decline in life expectancy in India in 2021 is also in line with the decline in other major health indicators of the country. For example, COVID-19 reversed decades of progress India had made in TB elimination. The notification of TB cases – or the number of TB cases that went undiagnosed – increased across the world in 2020 and India was hit the hardest. 

Similarly, the childhood immunisation rates dropped sharply, pushing India several years back. The number of children missing key vaccines in India lead to significant drop in overall immunisation coverage. The coverage of some of the vaccines in 2020 reached 2010 levels. In subsequent years, the rates improved as the impact of COVID-19 faded and the routine healthcare services resumed.

Another case in point is the malaria elimination programme. Malaria cases and deaths rose greatly in 2020. In Southeast Asia, which accounted for 2% of the global cases, India accounted for 83% of them alone. 

Leading causes of deaths in 2021

The leading cause of deaths in India in 2021 was COVID-19 according to the WHO. It caused 221 deaths per 100,00 population. COVID-19 was followed by Ischemic heart diseases, which caused 110.8 deaths per 100,000 population. The impact of COVID-19 on death figures is evident in the fact that it caused more than twice as many deaths as the second leading cause.

The third leading cause was Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary disease, which caused 70.5 deaths per 100,000 population. Other causes included strokes (53.5 deaths per 100,000 population), diarrheal diseases (34.3 deaths per 100,000 population), lower respiratory infections (27.8 deaths per 100,000 population), tuberculosis (25.4 deaths per 100,000 population), diabetes mellitus (23.1 deaths per 100,000 population), liver cirrhosis (18.9 deaths per 100,000 population)) and falls (16.5 deaths per 100,000 population).

It must be noted that due to the shutdown of major services, it is likely that many deaths due to reasons other than COVID-19 could have gone unrecorded. 

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