New Delhi: The conduct of a large section of mainstream Indian media in the first week of 2025 was an unpleasant reminder of over a year ago. On both occasions, the media contributed to panic over a “new” virus outbreak in India, which it said was followed by a “new” virus scare in China.
Throughout January 6, breaking news flashed on Indian TV channels on the detection of Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) cases. As many as five cases of HMPV, mostly among children, have been reported in the country till January 6 evening. Patients tested positive in Karnataka, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu.
In November 2023, various news channels had reported that China was facing an outbreak of a “mysterious” virus. The resultant panic was clearly visible on social media.
However, neither in November 2023 nor in January 2025 was there a “new” virus outbreak in China. Both the times, what has happened is an outbreak involving a combination of respiratory viruses – something that does happen in winter.
The build-up to the hysteria this year started about a week ago when a couple of Indian media outlets (here and here) ran reports and others screamed headlines about a “new fear” while trying to draw similarities between the COVID-19 outbreak and what is happening this year.
Some have, incredibly, even gone on to predict a possible pandemic.
A simple scientific explanation is enough to gauge the fundamental differences between the Sars-Cov-2 – the virus causing COVID-19 – and the HMPV.
Sars-CoV-2 was a virus of unknown origin. No scientist had known about it before it appeared and therefore, it was termed a novel (or new) coronavirus. Also, 2020 saw the first ever outbreak of Sars-Cov-2. On other hand, a Google search reveals within seconds that HMPV was first found in 2001.
Further, Sars-Cov-2 is an RNA virus while HMPV is a DNA virus. This would mean that the former has the capacity to mutate and change its variants faster while the same probability with the latter remains quite low because of this one difference in property.
So far, there is no scientific evidence to claim that the HMPV has mutated to spread faster or more lethally this time.
Any outbreak can be labelled a pandemic only if it spreads globally and it is caused by a new virus, according to the textbook definition. Neither of these two conditions have been met in the current outbreak.
Alarm bells have not been sounded either by a global health think-tank or the World Health Organisation (WHO).
What the WHO said to The Wire
In fact, replying to a query of The Wire on January 4 the WHO said, “The WHO has not received reports from China of any unusual increase in respiratory illness.”
“WHO continues to track respiratory pathogens in the Region, including changes in strains and variants [emphasis ours], and supports outbreak detection and response efforts,” it added.
Thus, it gave a clear indication that no mutation has so far been reported that could potentially reveal a bigger outbreak this time.
The UN body also clarified:
“According to updates from China’s Center for Disease Control & Prevention (China CDC) surveillance data from 16-22 December 2024, although there has been a rise in acute respiratory infections – including seasonal influenza, human metapneumovirus (hMPV), rhinovirus infection, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and others – particularly in northern provinces of China.”
These viruses are previously known and have been spreading over the years.
The WHO also highlighted that the ‘scale and intensity’ of respiratory diseases outbreak in China “this year was lower than during the same period last year,” thus, suggesting that there is no potential cause for worry right away.
Incidentally, The Wire got this response from the WHO a day before India demanded timely updates from it. It is not immediately known whether any other country has made a similar demand.
The Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases, popularly known as ‘ProMed’ is a publicly-available platform that reports global developments on disease outbreaks. It reported on December 28 that a China’s National Disease Control and Prevention Administration (NDCPA) official stated in a press conference that infections had risen significantly in the week of 16 to 22 December 2024. The official, though, added that the total number of cases in 2025 were projected to be lower than that of the previous year.
So far, there is no evidence in the public domain to doubt the WHO’s or China’s stand.
Interestingly, the ‘panic wave’ originated in Indian media when none of the international news agencies or global publications were reporting anything unusual about China. Reuters reported on December 27 that China was going to launch a new monitoring system to track unknown viruses. It also quoted the NCDPA official, referred to in the ProMed alert, to point out the surge in respiratory infections. But the Reuters report did not point to anything significantly extraordinary.
Also read: No New Pathogen, WHO’s Line, Why China?: What We Know About the ‘Unknown Pneumonia’ Outbreak
An upsurge in cases of what is known as ‘common cold’ caused due to influenza (flu) viruses during winters does not lead to a hysteria in India. So one wonders why a spike, if any has taken place, in HMPV cases – another respiratory infection – would be made to create shockwaves. Influenza, too, is a respiratory virus.
Many Indian news reports alluded to a viral video doing the rounds on social media about China’s hospitals being overwhelmed, but there has been no confirmation on it.
Meanwhile, many Indian scientists and doctors have posted on social media to inform people of the facts. Some of them can be read here (Dr Abdul Ghafur) and here (Dr Maulik Shah); and watched here (Gautam Menon) and here (S.C. Mande).
“Since the outbreak of respiratory viruses in winters is common in India and across the world, the more a country tests, the higher the number of infections it would find,” Vindo Scaria, a scientist working in the area of genomics, said. Therefore, an upsurge in China is not inexplicable. Detection of cases in higher numbers, especially of diseases which have been known to be mild, is not necessarily a cause for worry, he said.
“It is ideal from the perspective of public health that we should test more and be vigilant enough for infections during this season but the panic is uncalled for, unless an outlier is clearly visible,” Scaria added.
“HMPV has been in circulation for so long that many of us would already have been infected by it at some point without even knowing it,” Scaria said. This, he noted, would have also led to many of us developing antibodies against this virus.
Scaria’s observations regarding winters being an optimum season for surge in respiratory infection worldwide can be corroborated through some examples too. For example, NHK World reported on December 27 that Japan is reporting a big surge in influenza infections, caused by a respiratory virus, as noted before.
However, Scaria said that such occasions must serve as a reminder about the fact that India has not approved diagnostic tools for quite a few viruses like HMPV and Zika.
A private diagnostic lab can make primers of its own and use it with RT-PCR or a similar kit to detect HMPV. The kits may be available at a few hospitals/labs in the public and private sectors. But without approval, they can’t be sold in the market. So they are not available to be deployed at a large scale.
These [HMPV and Zika] viruses have been in circulation for a long time and we have had enough time to make kits for them. These kits would have to be scaled up for use should a sudden spike happen in any given year,” Scaria said. In such a scenario, India might be caught off-guard due to lack of these diagnostic tools.
Characteristics of HMPV
HMPV belongs to the ‘Paramyxoviridae’ family of viruses, similar to that of another respiratory virus, RSV. Both have a common seasonality. The symptoms are also similar. They are fever, cough, a runny nose, and wheezing – true for almost all respiratory infections.
Children, the elderly and those who have compromised immune systems are more vulnerable to HMPV. Those consuming immunosuppressants – drugs used to reduce the immune system’s working and given to patients who get organ transplants – or have infections which target the immune system itself, have a compromised immune system.
According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, HMPV spreads through the secretions from coughing and sneezing close personal contact, such as touching or shaking hands touching objects or surfaces that have the viruses on them then touching the mouth, nose, or eyes.
There is no specific antiviral for this virus – a case with many other viruses. Similarly, HMPV causes, largely, a self-limiting disease. Thus, care for treating symptoms like fever and cough is enough to treat it. According to the American Lung Association, if symptoms worsen and one develops shortness of breath, one should see a doctor.
There is no preventive vaccine for it. Again, this is not specific to this virus but is true for many others. Good hygiene, avoiding close contact with infected patients, and using masks if necessary, can prevent an HMPV infection.
