As the monsoon season intensifies in India, the country breathes a sigh of relief from the escalating crisis of frequent and severe heatwaves. Since 1901, the country’s average temperature has climbed by roughly 0.7°C. The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) forecasts that by the century’s end, India’s average temperature could rise by about 4.4°C.
This surge is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). While SLCPs have shorter atmospheric lifespans compared to CO2, they possess a strong warming potential. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century requires significant reductions in SLCPs, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommends be cut globally by 34% below 2019 levels by 2030. Immediate action on SLCPs can slow temperature rise swiftly.
The World Health Organization (WHO) forecasts that climate change could result in an additional 250,000 deaths per year from 2030 to 2050. Prolonged exposure to extreme heat and humidity severely impacts physical and mental health, increasing mortality rates. India’s current heatwave has already affected millions and caused 143 deaths between March and June.
Differential impact
Since 1994, Delhi has experienced some of its highest recorded temperatures, beginning with a notable peak of 47°C. The following year, Dholpur, a city in Rajasthan, recorded an extreme temperature of 50°C. The summer of 1998 was particularly devastating, resulting in the loss of 1,300 lives across the country. The tragic loss of 1,344 lives in 2010 led to the development of the first heat action plan in Ahmedabad. Furthermore, the CMIP5 models suggest that El Niño Modoki events, characterised by maximum warming over the central Pacific, may contribute to longer and more frequent heatwaves in India in the future.
Research from the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) reveals that urban areas are especially affected by heatwaves, impacting labour productivity and economic stability. This heightened vulnerability is due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Vulnerability and risk from extreme heat depend on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Certain population groups are particularly susceptible to heat-related health issues and may not always recognise their increased risk.
With over 43.99 crore unorganised workers in the Indian economy, Niti Aayog projects the gig workforce to expand by 2.35 crore workers by 2029-30. High competition, longer hours, extreme weather, poor payment structures, and strict terms for incentives are the main barriers faced by these workers. Building coping capacities and public health preparedness can reduce heatwave-related fatalities among this vulnerable population.
Differential adaptation
An extremely warm April like this one is rare, with only a 3% chance of occurring each year. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has enhanced monitoring, early warnings, and heat action plans, reducing fatalities despite increasing heatwaves. However, challenges remain from rapidly growing cities, informal settlements, increased exposure, lack of green spaces, and surging energy demands.
Although many cities are adopting measures such as cool roofs, nature-based infrastructure, and climate risk-informed building codes, there is limited focus on retrofitting and upgrading existing buildings. India has developed comprehensive heat action plans, but they require mandatory regulations to protect its most vulnerable populations.
Millions of Indians face a stark choice between protecting their health and losing wages during the crucial summer months. The economics of climate change disproportionately impact vulnerable populations. Innovative solutions addressing these urgent needs can serve as imperative case studies for nationwide implementation.
Bhagirath Kumar collects garbage from homes and sometimes sells spare bottles or other items to earn some money. He has to work outside in the intense heat and has to walk for hours. Photo: Nikita Jain
A programme in Ahmedabad, Extreme Heat Microinsurance, allows women to counter climate-induced financial loss by stopping work during extreme heat. Thousands of women are compensated with a portion of their daily wages through this initiative. The Self-Employed Women’s Association (SEWA) labour union manages the insurance programme, with premiums partially covered by the enrolled women and supplemented by charity.
Essential workplace interventions, such as scheduled rest breaks, fixed work hours, and rest-shade-rehydrate (RSH) programmes, are necessary but have yet to be fully integrated into worker protection guidelines in the affected regions. The Telangana Gig and Platform Workers Union (TGPWU) aims to highlight the impact of the heatwave on gig workers by reaching out to the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC). The Union calls for the heatwave to be recognised as a national disaster and advocates for the establishment of support systems for workers.
Also read: The Inequality of Heat: Heatwave Leaves Delhi’s Poor, Marginalised Gasping for Breath
The path forward
Despite compelling evidence and persistent calls, there remains a reluctance to officially recognise heatwaves as a national disaster or implement a dedicated national adaptation plan in India. Such a plan would ensure funds are allocated for heatwave adaptation, mitigation, and relief efforts, enhancing preparedness and response mechanisms.
Internationally, countries like Australia and Japan have been addressing heat waves at the national level. In Australia, this is managed through the National Emergency Management Agency. at the same time, Japan has amended its existing laws and released a nationwide Climate Change Adaptation Plan to combat the impacts of heatwaves.
The absence of corrective state action has prompted unions to safeguard their members through innovative case studies and programmes. The expanding gig economy, which includes millions of workers exposed to extreme heat, highlights the need for climate justice. State intervention on a national scale can lead to effective strategies across the country. Utilising blended finance models and leveraging resources and technology can significantly improve planning and execution.
India must prioritise robust workplace interventions and comprehensive public health preparedness to better protect its vulnerable populations. By taking decisive action now, we can mitigate the worst effects of climate change and ensure a livable future for our children and future generations.
Nehal Sharma is an ex-LAMP Fellow who works at the India Program-Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development (IGSD), a climate-oriented policy think tank in Washington DC, USA.
