It’s hard to know what to make of the government’s claim that perhaps 2.9 million COVID-19 cases and 78,000 COVID-19 related deaths have been averted, because this is based on un-transparent mathematical modelling which the country has been asked to take on trust and not question. This is the opinion of one of India’s most highly regarded experts in mathematical modelling and, in particular, disease modelling, Gautam Menon, professor of physics and biology both at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai and Ashoka University in Sonepat.
Menon says we don’t know what went into these mathematical models and, therefore, we have no way of judging the outcome they have produced. He said numbers in themselves have no meaning. That is derived from the assumptions on which they are based. Therefore, knowing those assumptions is critical to accepting the outcome. As he put it, “if you put in garbage you will get garbage”.
