India’s Rural Fertility Rate Falls to 2.1; Experts Flag Signs of Ageing Population
New Delhi: According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023, released by the Office of the Registrar General on September 6, rural India’s fertility rate has fallen to 2.1; the replacement level. Replacement fertility is the rate at which births offset deaths, and 2.1 is considered the benchmark for population stability. However, experts have cautioned that in India’s context, reaching 2.1 is not just a balance point but also a warning sign of a looming ageing population.
The SRS data shows that India’s overall fertility rate has dropped to 1.9, while urban fertility has fallen even lower, to 1.5. These figures put the country firmly in low-fertility territory. Hindustan Times has described the 2.1 threshold as “critical,” signalling the end of India’s high-growth demographic phase.
The turn here means that India is moving from a young, expanding population towards a greying one — with shrinking family size, slowing workforce growth, and rising care burdens.
National Family Health Survey, NFHS-5 (2019–21) had already logged a Total Fertility Rate of 2.0 which signals that this slide is part of a sustained downward trend.
However, regional contrasts persist: much of the south and west have stayed below replacement for years, while parts of the north and northeast remain above.
What’s driving the fall?
More years of schooling for girls, later marriages and births, wider use of spacing methods, better child survival, urbanisation, migration, and the rising costs of raising children — from education to housing — have all contributed to India’s sharp fertility decline, pushing rural fertility to replacement level and urban fertility far below it.
Asha, a domestic worker in Delhi, told The Wire, “These days couples ask about pills and injectables to space between kids. The question is less ‘how many’ and more ‘how well’.”
What lies ahead?
The policy challenges are diverging. In states like Kerala or Delhi, the focus has shifted to ageing, elder-care, and chronic diseases. In Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and parts of the northeast, priorities remain basic: maternal healthcare and access to modern contraception.
Hemant Kumar Meena, director, Health and Family Welfare at NITI Aayog, told The Wire, “We’ve crossed the demographic Rubicon; the rest is administration.”
The “administration” includes:
Education & nutrition: smaller families mean higher expectations; classrooms and meal schemes must deliver.
Family planning: diversify beyond female sterilisation; expand injectables, implants, and male methods.
Care economy: scale creches, elder-care, align school hours with work shifts.
Women’s employment: safe transport, flexible shifts, enforceable harassment redressal.
Ageing readiness: stronger primary care, pensions on time, assisted-living models in sub-1.7 fertility states.
Migration: portable benefits, affordable rentals, creches that move with workers.
Sex ratio: tighter checks on sex selection, equal investment in girls.
With fertility already dipping below replacement, “population control” campaigns are now outdated. The real task is building systems for an older, smaller family unit; reliable schools, functioning clinics, secure workplaces, and care services that can hold up as India moves into a post-growth demographic era.
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