The Small Peak in COVID-19 Cases in South East Asia Is No Cause For Panic

New Delhi: With Hong Kong and Singapore witnessing a minor uptick in COVID-19 cases,  the Indian government has maintained that there is no reason to panic in the country.

According to Hong Kong government's official update, as many as 1,042 were recorded in week 19 (May 4-10) of the year as compared to 972 in the preceding week.

Besides the count of cases, another indicator that identifies the COVID-19 scenario is sewage surveillance. It reveals per capita viral load, and hence is a more credible source than the number of cases recorded because otherwise, many cases may remain undetected. 

According to the Hong Kong government, the seven-day SARS-CoV-2 (the virus responsible for causing COVID-19) load, as gathered from sewage surveillance, for week 19 was around 710,000 copies of the virus per litre. It was 690,000 copies per litre in the preceding week.

In Singapore, a rise in COVID-19 cases has been registered but it is also not alarming. The official statement of the Singapore government states that COVID-19 cases for the week between April 27 to May 3, 2025, rose to 14,200 cases, compared to 11,100 cases in the previous week. 

It also mentions that though hospitalisation numbers have gone up marginally – from 102 to 133 – the average daily Intensive Care Unit (ICU) cases decreased from three to two. This indicates that though the number of cases have gone up slightly, the severity of disease, as such, has not. 

Neither Singapore nor Hong Kong has reported their hospitals being overwhelmed with patients, which happened during the delta wave of coronavirus in 2021. 

Dominant variant and reasons for rising cases

The dominant COVID-19 variant currently in both the countries is JN.1. 

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO)'s latest assessment, there is no cause of worry. “Considering the available evidence, the additional public health risk posed by JN.1 is still evaluated as low at the global level,” the WHO has said. 

The variant has been found across all WHO regions – Western Pacific Region, South East Asia region, European region (EUR) and Americas. 

The WHO said that, according to the available evidence, this variant has a growth advantage over previously circulating variants, i.e, it can spread a bit faster than its other cousins. The factors leading to the growth advantage are unclear. 

However, there is no significant difference between the JN.1 and previous variants as far as neutralisation capacity – the immune system's capacity to kill the virus – is concerned. In other words, the immune system can dodge JN.1 as efficiently as it could do with other variants. 

The most important indicator is the severity of the disease caused by any variant. According to the WHO, there are no reports of JN.1 causing severe disease. This is important because a rise in severity would lead to more hospitalisations, rise in ICU admissions, and, in some cases, it can cause the healthcare infrastructure to crumble. 

Peaks are not unexpected

It must be noted that small peaks in COVID-19 cases should come as no surprise. The COVID-19 virus has become endemic, i.e., it is no more a public health emergency. 

All viruses become endemic after a point and would keep causing some disease to the population. The problem arises if the severity of the disease caused by the virus increases or if there is an unexplained and abrupt rise in the number of cases – as opposed to the expected trajectory. 

COVID-19 is no exception to this scientific understanding of all the viruses. 

Another important thing to be noted here is that COVID-19 virus has been mutating continuously, ever since it surfaced. So, at any point in time, a variant may come up that can cause periodic peaks. It would remain the natural journey of this virus, on the expected lines. 

Indian government's response

The Union health ministry said on May 19, “As of May 19, 2025, the number of active COVID-19 cases in India stands at 257, a very low figure considering the country’s large population.”

“Almost all of these cases are mild, with no hospitalisation required,” it said.

The testing has reduced significantly in India with COVID-19 becoming endemic. In many other countries, the investigation has reduced – something the WHO has been pointing out for a long time. Therefore, the official numbers may not reflect the true picture, as far as the number of cases are concerned. 

The sewage surveillance, which also gives a better understanding of the current situation as far the circulation of the virus is concerned, is carried out only by a few entities in India and not at a national level. The statement also did not say what is the dominant variant in India, as of now. 

However, as the government's stance also made it clear that since most of the cases reported are mild with hospitalisation not being needed, it should not be a reason for panic.

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