Understanding Why Bihar is a ‘36%’ Election

New Delhi: In the 2015 Bihar assembly election, chief minister Nitish Kumar allied with Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) under the Mahagathbandhan (MGB). By 2020, he shifted back to the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). An analysis of voting trends across these elections shows a distinct voter pattern of loyalty – some communities continue to back political alliances, while others remain steadfastly loyal to individual leaders. Data indicates that both the MGB and the NDA retain solid core vote banks, but the decisive factor in the 2025 election is expected to be Bihar’s largest social group, the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs).

At the poles of Bihar's politics are two loyal blocs. The first is the upper castes, who make up 15.52% of the population and include Bhumihars (2.86%), Rajputs (3.45%), and Brahmins (3.66%). They were dominant until the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) broke the stranglehold of Bihar having upper caste chief ministers. The second are the Muslims and Yadavs.

The 1990 assembly elections, fuelled by the rise of backward class politics, shattered the upper castes' decades-long stranglehold on Bihar's government, once a Congress fortress. Before this shift, most chief ministers were upper caste, from Shri Krishna Singh (Bhumihar) to the 1980's rotation between Jagannath Mishra (a Brahmin) and Satyendra Narayan Sinha (a Rajput). In contrast, OBC and Dalit leaders like Karpoori Thakur and Bhola Paswan Shastri had only brief, unstable stints.

The 1990 election, riding the Mandal wave, installed Lalu Prasad Yadav as the chief minister and reversed the balance of legislative power. For the first time, Backward Caste MLAs (117) outnumbered upper-caste MLAs (105). This reordering solidified by 1995, when Backward Caste representation soared to 161 MLAs while the upper castes fell to just 56 – a lasting transformation in the social composition of Bihar's political elite.

Politically marginalised during the RJD's 15-year rule, this group’s opposition to the party is non-negotiable.CSDS post-poll data shows their vote for the NDA was 75-80% in 2015, even without Nitish Kumar in the alliance. In 2020, with Kumar back, their support remained over 80%. This makes them the NDA’s ideological anchor, providing a guaranteed vote share of around 12%.

Mirroring this loyalty is the MGB's "M-Y" coalition of Muslims (17.7%) and Yadavs (14.26%), who total 31.96% of Bihar’s population. Forged during the Mandal and Mandir movements of the 1990s, this alliance is the RJD’s fortress. The CSDS 2020 data is explicit: 76% of Yadavs and 80% of Muslims voted for the MGB, with nearly identical numbers in 2015. This gives RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav a base of over 25% of the total vote share before campaigning begins.

A 36% EBC bloc holds the balance of power

Between these two poles lie the kingmakers: the EBCs. 

The 2022 caste survey underlined their electoral weight at 36.01% of the population. This vast, heterogeneous group of over 130 communities was politically cultivated by Nitish Kumar, who separated them from the dominant Yadavs and targeted them with welfare schemes like reservations in local bodies. Their vote follows him personally. In 2015, they followed him into the MGB, forming a winning coalition with the M-Y axis. In 2020, they swung back with him to the NDA, ensuring the success of the alliance despite high anti-incumbency.

Alliances compete with welfare and power-sharing

The CSDS 2020 post-poll survey highlighted the election's competing priorities. Unemployment, the core of Tejashwi Yadav’s campaign, was the top issue for 21% of voters. But development, Nitish Kumar’s central plank, was most important for a larger plurality of 37%. This issue resonated with EBCs and swung the election in his favour, making the bloc the key battleground for 2025.

The NDA is countering with its own package, blending state-level patronage with the financial muscle of Union government schemes under the ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ slogan. This includes programmes aimed at artisan and working-class communities, such as the PM Vishwakarma Yojana for skill development and financial aid, and the Mudra loan scheme for small entrepreneurs. This economic appeal is reinforced by a political strategy where Nitish Kumar's JD(U) fields EBC candidates in over 21% of its seats, along with conferring the Bharat Ratna on Karpoori Thakur.

The MGB is launching a multi-pronged campaign to break this loyalty. Politically, it is not only projecting EBC leader Mukesh Sahani as a potential deputy chief minister, the RJD has also increased its EBC ticket share to 23% and appointed EBC leader Mangani Lal Mandal as its state president to shed its 'M-Y only' image. This is backed by specific promises: a pledge to increase the EBC reservation quota to 30%, a new EBC Atrocities Prevention Act, and a Rs 5 lakh interest-free aid package for EBC artisans.

The Dalit vote: A fragmented secondary battleground

The state’s Dalit vote (19.65%) is not a monolith. The Paswans (5.31%) are the core vote of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Analysis of the 2020 election shows that when LJP's Chirag Paswan contested separately from the NDA, his candidates acted as spoilers, helping the BJP gain the upper hand in the alliance, splitting the anti-RJD Dalit vote and helping defeat Nitish Kumar's JD(U) in dozens of seats. For the 2025 polls, Paswan's party is a part of the the NDA bloc, turning his party's 5-6% vote from a vote-cutter into a vote-adder — a structural advantage for the alliance.

The Ravidas community, another major Dalit group, has traditionally aligned with social justice politics. CSDS data shows 59% voted for the MGB in 2015. But in 2020, with Nitish Kumar on the other side, this support dropped to 51% as the NDA's share rose to 30%. A significant minority, beneficiaries of Nitish Kumar’s "Mahadalit" schemes, followed him. This shows that while their core remains with the MGB, they are receptive to welfare delivery.

Two clear paths to victory emerge for 2025

These dynamics set up a clear strategic contest. The NDA’s path to victory is consolidation and welfare. With its upper caste base locked and the Paswan vote secured, its campaign hinges on promoting its central and state welfare schemes and leveraging the JD(U) as the primary vehicle for EBC political representation. The goal is to hold the EBC and Mahadalit women’s vote that Nitish Kumar delivered in 2020.

The MGB’s strategy is to use its M-Y fortress for an aspirational outreach, underpinned by a tangible EBC charter. Its promise of jobs targets youth discontent. The elevation of Sahani is reinforced by more EBC candidates from the RJD and pledges for legal safeguards and a higher reservation quota. The MGB must also defend its Muslim vote from spoilers like the AIMIM, a lesson from close losses in Seemanchal in 2020. 

But things have moved on the ground since the CSDS 2020 survey and with political strategist Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj party adding another variable, the election could be decided by which narrative proves more compelling to the majority of the 36% of Bihar that sits in the middle.

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