Rajan Pandey 
Rae Bareli/Amethi (Uttar Pradesh): “Razi khushi khairiyat se rahiye (May you live well and happily),” reads a signboard as one leaves Rae Bareli town. There’s a slight stubble on the unending empty farmlands in the scorching May heat, signalling the increased use of harvester-combines in wheat harvest. At some places, the stubble has been burnt – like in Punjab. The farmers are at leisure or fursat (in Hindi) after the wheat harvest, and so is Fursatganj, a town in Amethi. But small groups of people can be seen sitting together at tea-samosa shops across both Rae Bareli and Amethi districts, and the big topic of discussion is the ongoing election.
A repeat of 2019 in Rae Bareli?
In 2019 elections, then Congress president Sonia Gandhi won the Rae Bareli seat with 5,34,918 votes, while Dinesh Pratap Singh of the Bharatiya Janata Party was the runner up with 3,67,740 votes; the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance did not field a candidate here then. This time, Dinesh has been fielded again by the BJP, while the Congress has fielded Rahul Gandhi after Sonia Gandhi joined the Rajya Sabha from Rajasthan. This is the second seat that Rahul is contesting, other than Wayanad in Kerala. Despite being a VVIP seat and seeing top leaders from both the NDA and INDIA alliances, the election in Rae Bareli appears dull as the voters seem unenthused.
“There is nothing new this time here,” says 56-year-old Karuna Shankar Shukla at a tea shop in Atheha Bazar of Rae Bareli, as others sitting around nod in agreement. “Last time too, most voters voted for a Gandhi from the Congress, this time too the same is going to happen. Last time too, Dinesh Pratap Singh of the BJP lost, this time too, he is the candidate and is expected to lose. Naya kya hai (What’s new)?” he asks.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
That Rae Bareli is a Congress stronghold becomes quite apparent to anybody travelling across the parliamentary constituency. Congress flags, video vans, hoardings and workers busy in door-to-door campaigning simply outnumber those of the BJP here – a remarkable difference for UP. “This is a Congress garh (citadel),” accepts a group of BJP supporters in Unchahar town of Rae Bareli, “and though [Narendra] Modi-ji is coming back to power in the country, here Congress may win again.” But why are they not excited and charged about the BJP’s prospects in Rae Bareli despite thinking that Modi is getting a third term, I ask. “Pratyashi kharab hai (The candidate is bad),” they say, asserting that had there been any other candidate in place of Dinesh, the contest would have been more intense.
Group after group of BJP supporters across the constituency repeat the same sentiment. “Dinesh Singh local hain, unka pichla kiya dhara sab jante hain, aur pichli bar haar bhi chuke hain (Dinesh Singh is a local, his past misdeeds are well known, and he lost in the last election too),” says Radhe Lal Lodhi in Sareni. “Ab kitni bar unhen ticket diya jayega (Now how many times will he be given the ticket)?” Further, infighting between BJP leaders has also surfaced. Rae Bareli MLA and daughter of influential local leader late Akhilesh Singh’s daughter Aditi Singh is reported to be angry and not cooperating with the party candidate, Dinesh. Her war of words with Dinesh’s son on social media has already made local headlines, painting the picture of a divided house.
However, the local BJP leadership is hopeful that the defection of the SP MLA from Unchahar, Manoj Pandey, to the BJP will help the saffron party. During his recent visit to Rae Bareli, Union home minister Amit Shah also visited Pandey’s house in the city. While Pandey is openly working for the BJP, the remaining three MLAs of the SP in Rae Bareli are working for the INDIA alliance and Rahul Gandhi, in coordination with Priyanka Gandhi Vadra who is spearheading the Congress campaign.
Mood for change continues in Amethi
The dull mood changes drastically as one leaves Rae Bareli and enters the Amethi constituency. Suddenly, the tell-tell signs of BJP’s robust machinery are visible everywhere. Incumbent MP and BJP candidate Smriti Irani’s hoardings and BJP flags are ubiquitous as cars with BJP flags drive past and their video vans make rounds. On the contrary, Congress campaign is conspicuously absent. Amethi has been a traditional seat of the Gandhi family, with Sanjay Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi representing this seat in the past. Made up of five assembly constituencies – Amethi, Gauriganj, Jagdishpur, Salon and Tiloi – Amethi has two SP MLAs and three BJP MLAs. In the 2019 elections, Irani won this seat polling 4,68,514 votes while Rahul was the runner up with 4,13,394 votes, losing by a margin of 55,120 votes.
This time, Rahul has moved away from Amethi and the party has fielded long-term Gandhi family confidante Kishori Lal Sharma from. Given that Sharma’s stature is small compared to Irani’s, one may assume that this will be a cakewalk for Irani. The situation on the ground, however, could not be more different. “Bahut kadi ladai hai (It’s a very close fight),” says Jitendra Jaiswal at the Kalika Samosa Bhandar on the Amethi-Gauriganj road. The same sentiment echoes in the responses of common voters across communities and areas, and even BJP leaders accept off the record that it’s a tough election. But why, I ask.
“Bahut vade kiye the pichli bar Irani ne, koi pura nahin kiya (Irani made many promises in the past election, and did not fulfil any of them),” says a group of villagers in Simrauta. When asked about specifics, they mention her promises of ensuring sugar supply at Rs 13 per kg, cheap gas cylinders and an end to the menace of stray cattle. “13 rupaye kilo chini boli thi, 13 rupaye pav mil rahi hai (She promised sugar at Rs 13/kg and now it’s a quarter of a kg at that rate),” says another group of respondents in Salon town. Further, stray cattle is still a big issue across the constituency and farmers complain that they have stopped growing oilseeds and pulses due to this. Farmers are being forced to either spend money on creating fences or guard the crop 24×7. In Bhetua block alone, two people were reportedly killed by stray bulls in the past couple of months.
Photo: Rajan Pandey
“Hamen ummid thi ki Rahul nahin rahte yahan, badlav hoga to aur vikas hoga lekin ye to jitne ke bad naya kuch nahin layi balki jo Gandhi parivar banaya tha usko bhi barbad kar di (We expected that since Rahul doesn’t spend time here, if we bring change there will be more development. But after winning she did not bring anything new and destroyed even those institutions which were built by Gandhi family),” says Sarvesh Singh in Gauriganj. When asked in the specific, he mentions the closure of the Sanjay Gandhi hospital by the UP government last year over allegations of clinical negligence, and said it was Irani who got it done because Sanjay Gandhi’s name was associated with it. Respondents from every caste group and age group said that this was vendetta politics and Irani made a big mistake by closing the hospital, as it was important for poor people seeking healthcare who could not afford to transport patients to Rae Bareli AIIMS or Lucknow. After sustained protests, the UP high court intervened and ordered for the hospital to be reopened. On being asked about Irani’s work, BJP workers mentioned the construction of flyovers in Gauriganj and a 300-bed hospital being made in Tiloi, which will start operating by 2025 or later.
Silent voters, simmering anger and negative voting
One noticeable thing in Amethi is the unwillingness of voters to speak on camera. “Kaun musibat le Bhaiyya, ye to jail kara degi (Who will take risk, she will get us sent to jail),” said a group of respondents in Salon. A young pradhan (village head), on the condition of anonymity, confirms that the fear is real. “I worked for SP in the 2022 assembly elections, and later the police threatened me at the behest of Irani’s people that my funds will be stopped and I will be sent to jail. In this election, I am officially campaigning for the BJP, but internally asking people to end this terror by defeating her,” he says. He further says that a majority of pradhans are doing the same – “Upar se kuch aur, andar se kuch aur (One thing in public, another in private).”
Another pradhan in Amethi confirmed this sentiment, saying that the Gandhi family never intervened in nali-khadanja (local) politics. Irani has created many enemies by interfering in everyone’s work and favouring those close to her. “Pichli bar logon ne Rahul Gandhi ko sabak sikhane ke liye vote kiya tha, is bar Irani ko sikhane ke liye karenge,” he says.
“She can stop us from speaking against her publicly, but who will know which button we push on 20 May inside?” says a group of youngsters just 200 metres away from the house of BJP MLA Mayankeshwar Singh in Tiloi. When asked about the Congress campaign being weak and Sharma not being as popular, they agree but say that these factors are immaterial. “Kaun jitega vo baad ki baat hai, ye haraane ka chunav hai, jitaane ka nahin (Who will win is an issue for later, this is an election about making someone lose, not making someone win),” they get up saying, while confirming again that I haven’t secretly recorded anything.
Rajan Pandey is a freelance journalist. He is associated with the survey agency People’s Pulse.