New Delhi: Even as the ongoing ethnic violence in Manipur is set to clock the end of a turbulent year this May 3, the state is getting ready for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Voting in the north-eastern state’s two parliamentary seats would be completed in two phases. While the electorate in the Meitei-majority constituency, the Inner Manipur seat, will cast their ballot on April 19, 13 assembly constituencies that come under the tribal-majority Outer Manipur seat will see polling on April 26. The remaining 15 assembly segments of Outer Manipur Lok Sabha constituency will vote on April 19 along with the Inner Manipur constituency.
Though there is considerable umbrage on both sides of the ethnic divide in Manipur towards the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for varying reasons, a common chord that binds both the Meiteis and the Kukis against the party has been their displeasure over the sheer silence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the violence that had left hundreds dead and thousands homeless. The ethnic strife has led to the state virtually split into two which locals refer to as ‘LoC (line of control)’ between the hill and valley districts, a first-ever seen phenomenon in Manipur’s post-Independence history.
Since the violence, Modi visited neighbouring Assam twice, including a pleasure trip to sight the one-horned rhino at the Kaziranga National Park while ignoring not just his party’s request to visit Manipur but also giving them an audience in New Delhi.
Narendra Modi in Kaziranga National Park. Photo: X (Twitter)/@narendramodi
Meanwhile, armed non-state actors on both sides of the ‘LOC’ are ruling the streets – spreading panic among common citizens, leaving the state forces to end up as mere bystanders many a times.
Even elected legislators and state police personnel have been physically assaulted by armed non-state actors like the Arambai Tenggol (AT) in the state capital itself – it was to force them to cede to their power.
AT, inspite of being heavily armed, calls itself a civil society body; its members have been reportedly seen moving around in state police vehicles. The chief minister and BJP leader N. Biren Singh is also the home minister. BJP Rajya Sabha member Sanajouba is also the founder of AT; their meetings take place at his residence, including with Union ministry of home affairs (MHA) officials.
Also read: Manipur: People Can Vote From Relief Camps in State, But Those in Other States Can’t
In spite of such turmoil and the life of the common voter affected unprecedentedly, the Election Commission of India (ECI), however, decided to go ahead with the polls in Manipur.
With the electioneering process unrolled, as many as ten candidates have jumped into the fray, including five Independents.
Here is a lowdown for The Wire readers on what is unfolding in the two Lok Sabha seats which, in the 2019 polls, had gone to the BJP, and to the Naga People’s Front, a member of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Will these two NDA players be able to pick the seats this time too?
Inner Manipur seat
With the BJP having given itself the target of increasing its 2019 reap in the Northeast in the 2024 elections, it is a given that the party will try its level best to hold on to this seat. The Inner Manipur seat was among the 14 seats that the BJP had pocketed in the region in 2019. Together with its allies, the party had claimed 18 of the 25 seats from the north-eastern states in those elections. This time around, the ambition is to cross that threshold.
Naturally then, the party would want Manipur to go to polls inspite of the unending ethnic strife.
The majority of the Inner Manipur seat covering a large swathe of the valley districts, comprises of voters from the Meitei community who had, in the 2018 state polls, given the BJP a rousing victory. That victory had made the BJP form its own government for the first time in Manipur. That the party under the rein of chief minister N Biren Singh could pull it off helped enhance his heft within the BJP, till the May 3 ethnic violence turned a considerable section from within his community, aside from the Kukis, pointing fingers at him for the turmoil.
According to state BJP sources, there was a suggestion within the party to name Biren Singh as its candidate from the Inner Manipur seat for the 2024 elections. Not just the Kukis, but a wide section of the Meiteis rather see him vacate the CM’s seat for some sort of peace to return between the two communities.
Ultimately, the name of Thanoujam Basanta Kumar, state law minister, was finalised. Among several ministers of the Modi government who were dropped this time from the candidates list included Rajkumar Ranjan Singh from Manipur too. There is resentment within the Meitei community against Singh for his alleged ‘ silence’ during the ethnic conflict.
Clearly, it is no cakewalk for Basanta Kumar either.
Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc has let the Congress contest the seat. Congress has picked Angcomcha Bimol Akoijam from the Inner Manipur seat.
Akoijam is an academic, associated with the Jawaharlal Nehru University till recently; also a sharp commentator on Manipur affairs — one of the best known faces from the Meitei community residing outside of the state. During the ethnic strife, he batted for the community’s identity concerns in several national fora; accused the BJP of playing with fire in the ethnically sensitive state.
Akoijam certainly holds a chance in these elections from the Inner Manipur seat. However, his fight is not two-bloc centric. There are four others contesting from that Lok Sabha constituency. There is actor Maheshwar Thounaojam of the Republican Party of India (Athawale) besides three Independent candidates – R K Somendro, Moirangthem Tomtomsana Nongshaba and Haorungbam Sarat.
Akoijam has a formidable opponent in Maheswar Thonoujam of the RPI (A), an ally of the BJP. In the last year, Maheswar adequately used his public image as an actor by being vocal about opposing the Kukis; thereby accumulating considerable goodwill within his Meitei community. Akoijam’s disadvantage is he was not seen in Imphal rooting for his community while a vocal Maheswar was noticed adequately by local residents doing so. In a charged atmosphere, ‘seeing’ is being.
However, what seems to be working as a disadvantage for Maheswar is that he represents a party that is a BJP ally. No wonder then, this April 1, he was seen publicly stating that for him “party is secondary”.
“Party is a secondary consideration for me. If my party obstructs my mission for the people, I won’t hesitate to part ways,” he told reporters in Imphal, hoping it would help clear his path to victory on June 4.
According to some Imphal-based political observers, a fraction of the anti-BJP votes from the Meitei community could land on the independent candidate Somendra’s lap too.
In other words, if the anti-BJP votes get distributed among three-four contestants, the only benefactor would be the BJP’s Basanta Kumar.
Curiously, the Modi government, thus far, has also kept mum on one of the major demands of the Meitei sub-nationalist voters – no more annual renewal of the suspension of operations (SoO) agreement with the Kuki armed groups based on their claim that those groups targeted Meiteis in the ethnic strife inspite of the pact with the Centre. Since 2008, the Centre has been annually renewing the agreement considering the peace talks with those groups have been continuing.
This past February, the Manipur assembly comprising only of Meitei legislators, most of whom belong to the BJP, also passed a resolution to that effect, keeping their voter sentiment in mind. However, even though the current term of the agreement expired this February 29, the Modi government is hushed about whether it had been renewed. Some political observers in Imphal and Churachandpur are of the opinion that the Centre may make the announcement about extending it by another year once the voting in the Inner Imphal seat concludes on April 19.
Nearly half of the tribal majority Outer Manipur seat which includes the Kuki areas will vote on April 26. Extension of the SoO agreement by the Modi government may help swing votes for the NDA’s common candidate, K. Timoty Zimik of the Naga People’s Front (NPF).
Outer Manipur seat
However, such a vote swing from the Kuki camp towards the NPF candidate is not a likelihood at the moment as leaders from the community, including the body spearheading the talks with the Modi government on their demand for a ‘separate administration’ – the Indigenous Tribal Leaders Forum (ITLF) – have called for a ‘boycott’ of the elections.
Such a boycott call has not only kept Kuki candidates from contesting from the Outer Manipur reserved seat but there is every likelihood of voters from the community keeping a distance from the poll booths too. The situation may change, though, if the Union ministry of home affairs goes public post April 19 about the ‘routine renewal’ of the SoO agreement which may not violate the model code of conduct.
Challenging the NPF candidate is another Naga, a promising, young tribal politician from the Congress stable – Alfred Kanngam S Arthur. Together with Akoijam, Alfred Arthur held a press meet in Imphal this past week, where he stated that Naga leaders of Manipur could be the intermediary between the Kukis and the Meiteis to bring peace and a solution to the current deadlock.
Alfred, aside from facing the NPF challenge, also has two other opponents in Independent candidates Alyson Abonmei and S Kho John. Alyson was particularly noticed for his role in supporting hundreds of families in the Ukhrul district during the COVID-19 pandemic. This past January, BJP leader V K Singh had awarded Alyson the “Best Social Reformer of the Year” award in New Delhi “in recognition of his outstanding contribution to the country”.
A former student leader, S Kho John is also associated with the powerful Naga organisation in Manipur, the United Naga Council (UNC).
Non-NPF votes in the Outer Manipur seat would likely get divided between Alfred, Alyson and John. Needless to say, it can then help NDA pocket both the LS seats of the beleaguered state.
