Just before the seventh and last round of balloting on June 1 in the ongoing national election, estimates of the likely result and the politics that may ensue – the permitting of the Modi era to stretch, or the signalling of its reversal – remain as varied as when the process began on May 7.

Leaving aside extreme predictions on either side – by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s partisans or opponents – it looks probable that in the event the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can muster the numbers to form the government, the PM must win his own Varanasi seat impressively in order that he is permitted by his party to re-assert his authority as before.

Anything described as a sketchy win is likely to ruffle the intra-BJP dynamics to Modi’s disadvantage. In 2019, the PM had won by a massive 4.79 lakh votes in the wake of a nationalist frenzy following India’s air attack on Balakot inside Pakistan after a massive terrorist strike in Pulwama in Kashmir valley (in circumstances later seen to be controversial in light of the then J&K governor Satyapal Malik’s explosive media revelations which the government has not challenged).

That comfortable margin of heightened patriotic fervour is not available in 2024 as Modi’s governance record faces wide and deep-going criticism even from sections of society that had earlier rooted for him.

Ruling BJP circles, top leaders of the government, and leading lights of the BJP organisation, as well as big business circles and the stock market indicators, in addition to the traditional media which has been dutifully pliant for the past decade, appear buoyant about Modi returning as PM with ease, and his party notching up parliamentary numbers nearly as good as in 2019.

To numerous independent observers and journalists, however, such a rosy prospect appears illusory, in light of the evidence that is hard to ignore in parts of the country from where the BJP had marked its best wins in 2019. Besides, in contrast to the last Lok Sabha election, this time around the opposition front forged by the Congress looks focused, well-coordinated, and combative. Modi’s opponents are drawing massive doses of attention in the constituencies, including Varanasi, where the PM is defending his seat – although the show of partisanship by the Election Commission, whose conduct so far has drawn widespread condemnation, as a force multiplier is widely feared. In Varanasi, there are signs that the fury of the opposition challenge appears to have stunned the BJP and its supporters.

Deep-going discontent among the electorate on account of daily worsening economic woes is palpable across the vast Ganga-Yamuna Indian heartland, which hosts the holiest Hindu pilgrimages as well as sites of the most rapid recent growth of Modi’s stepped-up Hindutva polity.

RSS is the mother-ship of BJP and its predecessor party, the Bhartiya Jana Sangh, which was germinated by the RSS in 1951 to be its political and electoral face, as the RSS is obliged by historical circumstances to present itself as a cultural and social service organisation that promotes nationalism and Hindu cultural consciousness, and stays out of politics.

Indeed, it is the Sangh, as the RSS is known, that provides the BJP its cadre on a 24x7 basis, including at election time. The BJP has no real cadre of its own. To underline the integral unity of RSS and the BJP,  Modi – who rose up the RSS ranks before catapulting himself into the BJP – has also fulfilled RSS’ key elements of the long-term strategic agenda for India.

BJP-RSS fraught relationship 

And yet, RSS’ relationship with the BJP controlled by the Modi-Amit Shah duo has been fraught at the leadership level for some time. Incompatibility and misalignment between Modi and RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat have been written about without contradiction from either side. It has been speculated that in more recent times the dissonance appears to have spilled over to a section of the cadre as well. This was on plain view in Varanasi when this writer visited Modi’s constituency for an election-time appraisal.

Indeed, the widely observed coolness of the RSS cadre toward Modi’s election campaign throughout the BJP’s catchment areas, including in key states such as UP, Maharashtra, and Bihar, has been commented upon extensively. Video news and current affairs platforms, which are thought to have taken away nearly half of the established television viewership, have busily taken note of this new element in RSS-BJP ties.

It is also widely thought that the RSS, keen to propagate its cultivated self-image as a non-political entity, prefers to dissociate itself from the perceived growing unpopularity of the Modi regime, which many have increasingly begun to describe as a “dictatorship”.

In this background has lately come a much-noted interview of BJP president J.P.Nadda to the Indian Express newspaper. Nadda has stated unequivocally that while the RSS cadre provided support to the BJP in the past, the party had now come to stand on its own feet and did not need the RSS largesse. This has stunned BJP ranks and left the RSS feeling humiliated, possibly raising bitterness at top levels in both organisations.

In telephonic conversations, BJP circles find it hard to overcome their surprise, especially since Nadda’s observations have come in the middle of a bitter and crucial election campaign in which BJP – in the eyes of many observers – appears to be in trouble in many parts of the country.

Observers of the BJP and RSS fold also point out that Nadda is unduly keen to show his loyalty to Modi and Shah. In a video in circulation, the BJP chief can be seen proclaiming that Modi is not only the leader or king of men (“Narendra”– the PM’s given name) but also “Surendra”, the leader or the king of the gods. This is an overstatement of divine proportions even by the prevailing standards of dripping sycophancy in Modi’s court.

To what extent such a scenario might impact intra-BJP politics – and the wider political arena – if the BJP does not romp home an automatic winner in the polls under Modi and Shah’s command and control, is a matter of fair speculation, considering that unease with the leadership ways of the Modi-Shah combine and even the state of the polity they have given rise to, has been widespread at senior levels in the BJP and the Union cabinet.

Rumblings in the BJP

Even in key BJP-influenced states such as UP, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh and Haryana, whispers against Modi and Shah have persisted for some years, leaving the impression that dissent has not burst into the open only on account of fear of reprisal. The masters of the present-day BJP are frequently spoken of as “ruthless” men who would go to any extent to keep power.

Not long after Nadda’s controversial interview appeared last week, a video surfaced showing the RSS chief Bhagwat praising the role of the Congress party – Modi’s bitter political and ideological antagonist – and its many leaders in the freedom movement, and their contribution to nation-building.

A PTI fact-check has evidently shown this to be a video from 2018. That does not quite make it out of context, of course. Nevertheless, the timing of its re-appearance can be said to be a comment on the state of the deteriorating relations between RSS and BJP in the Modi era. Who may have injected the video back into the political play-stream at a sensitive moment is a question that may also be of considerable political interest. Among the leading lights of the freedom movement was Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first prime minister, against whom Modi has railed practically every day of his ten years as PM.

Lately, whispers are also heard in the wider BJP constellation of a lack of chemistry between President Droupadi Murmu and the PM, with the president evidently feeling slighted by Modi’s disregard of protocol in relation to her, amounting to a lack of institutional respect, leave alone personal propriety.

In a widely circulated video not long ago, when out of deference for his age and state of health, the president called upon former BJP stalwart L.K.Advani at his residence to confer the Bharat Ratna on him, she was seen standing and bending, and he sitting in a chair, as she gave him the nation’s highest award. But the PM was also seen in the sequence, sitting cosily with Advani even as the president stood, an example of sheer poor grace.

As further example of open disregard of the president by the PM is cited in her absence from the inauguration of the new parliament building by Modi on account of non-invitation. This was blatant as the president, and not the prime minister, traditionally and ceremonially opens every session of parliament. It is also being said that this prime minister thinks nothing of walking ahead of the First Citizen in protocol situations.

While such issues are being spoken of in BJP and government circles, it is not unlikely that other infractions of the PM are also being totted up by those dissatisfied with him in the regime set-up, to be brought into play at the appropriate hour if the chips are down for Modi. The shadows are indeed moving. Perhaps only an assertive margin of victory in Varanasi can resurrect his leadership in case the BJP manages to take a lead over the opposition, as an individual party and as a part of the NDA coalition.

Much has been said about the leader of the first party being called by the president to be sworn in as the next prime minister, as per convention. But it cannot be overlooked that the BJP is in the election as part of the NDA coalition, a pre-poll partnership which constituted the previous government led by Modi. This coalition is in direct competition against the pre-poll INDIA grouping. Individual party strength is a secondary consideration in the circumstances.

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