Even though there is little scope for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to isolate any particular caste or social group in Maharashtra and Jharkhand as it did with the Jats in Haryana, yet the political commentators may be a bit reluctant in making poll prediction in these two states. The surprise result in Haryana may make them wise.
Notwithstanding this caution, the fact remains that the challenge ahead for the BJP is not so easy.
It is true, that the Marathas in Maharashtra, much like the Jats in Haryana, are numerically the most powerful social group. In Jharkhand, the Scheduled Tribes, with over 26% votes form the biggest social combination.
But it would be a bit difficult for the BJP to isolate Marathas and Scheduled Tribes in Maharashtra and
Jharkhand, respectively.
Outplaying the Jats in Haryana
In Haryana, the task cut out for the BJP was somewhat easy as it got an idea from the 2024 Lok Sabha
election that an overwhelming number of Jats were not going to vote for the saffron party. This actually happened in the state poll held four months later as around 53% of them voted for the Congress, almost double than those who threw their lot behind the BJP. The rest voted for Chautalas, who had lost their relevance, and independents.
In the 2019 Assembly election the BJP could not isolate Jats as they were also inclined towards the
Jannayak Janata Party of Dushyant Chautala with whom the saffron party was to make a deal later – Dushyant Chautala was made the deputy chief minister.
So, isolating, if not demonising, Jats this time was quite easy as JJP had grown weak and distanced itself from the BJP. The BJP went on to win Haryana with the support of OBC and other communities even though majority of the dominant Jat community voted for the Congress.
Demonising Yadavs in Bihar and UP
The saffron party has successfully demonised Yadavs in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, especially in the former state because of long rule by a prominent leader belonging to this caste. Even today whenever chief minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) joins hands with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the BJP machinery, with the help of a supportive media, starts evoking the bogey of the so-called “jungle raj”, that is the 15 years rule of Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi (1990-2005). And the day Nitish returns to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold the Mangal Raj is restored.
The most ironical aspect of the whole accusation is that while in NDA Nitish too would talk about the
Jungle Raj, but whenever he would form government in alliance with the RJD he would deny its existence.
The truth is that there was nothing like “jungle raj” then. In fact, the law and order situation was at
least better than in what it is in many states at the present, wherein former Maharashtra minister Baba Siddiqui and renowned Punjabi singer Sidhu Moose Wala were allegedly killed by shooters belonging to a notorious gang initially operating from Tihar Jail in the national capital of Delhi. Both of them were shot dead when they had security guards.
Contrary to this, in Bihar the entire BJP propaganda machinery would allege that people, in particular
women, were so tormented by the Yadav goons then that they would not come out of their homes after the sunset – a totally baseless propaganda.
BJP’s propaganda about ‘jungle raj’
Had it been Jungle Raj in those 15 years Patna would not have got the opportunity to host the Cricket World Cup match in February 1996 (it was spread to two days because of rain). As the match was played between Kenya and Zimbabwe many African students, who used to study in Bihar’s capital then, came to watch this match. One of the umpires was from Pakistan.
Three years before At the height of Mandal-Mandir tension in November 1993, Patna hosted its first
ever One Day International match. These were the only two cricket matches of international level held in
Patna during the time of the so-called “jungle raj”.
Jamshedpur, a prominent city of Bihar till November 15, 2000, was another such venue. Though cricket has grown in popularity since 1990s, the cricketing authorities had not given Patna any such opportunity in the last 28 years. This is so, notwithstanding the fact that Bihar is under the rule of “susashan babu” Nitish Kumar for the last 19 years.
In 1995, Patna hosted a conclave of Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) and an NRI conference.
Patna was decorated for these two events and they passed off without any untoward incident.
The then woman chief minister Rabri Devi decided to felicitated Karnam Malleswari, the Sydney Olympic bronze medallist in 2000. So, a woman CM had invited a woman weightlifter in Patna’s Moin-ul-Haq Stadium. Curiously, the function was organised in late evening, obviously after the sunset. And those who turned up included women too.
As a journalist I covered all these events. Many other international get-togethers took place in those
15 years.
At the same time it is a fact that Yadavs, like all the ruling castes elsewhere in other states, had
been a numerically dominant social group. This is the case with Thakurs or Rajputs in Uttar Pradesh now, Marathas in Maharashtra, Patels in Gujarat, Jats in Haryana, Reddys in Telangana, Lingayats and
Vokkaligas in Karnataka.
Exposing their misdeeds is one thing, but demonising them other. But the BJP thrives in demonising any particular community or caste to win election.
Dominant group quota agitations helped BJP
For example, in Haryana, the BJP, through its whisper campaign and spreading of rumours tried to
demonise Jats as if they had tormented all the other castes during past regimes. No doubt, the agitation
for reservation by Jats in 2016 was marred by violence in Haryana, but the same was the case with the
Patels’ demand for OBC quota movement in Gujarat in 2015 which led to the loss of several lives.
Marathas too are doing the same now. And the OBCs are resisting it.
But the moot question is: whether the BJP would be able to outcast Marathas and gang up the rest of the
castes, especially the backwards.
Perhaps not, because Eknath Shinde faction of Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar faction of Nationalist Congress Party are essentially Maratha-based parties like Shiv Sena of Uddhav Thackeray and NCP of Sharad Pawar. So, here the BJP will have to do a lot of tight rope walking.
Unlike in Haryana, where the BJP and Congress won five Lok Sabha seats each, in Maharashtra the INDIA Alliance won 31 out of 48 seats.
BJP faces tough fight in Jharkhand
In Jharkhand too, the sail is not so smooth for the BJP after Jharkhand Mukti Morcha leader and Chief Minister Hemant Soren’s release from jail. With over 14 per cent Muslims and 26% tribal population it would not be so easy for the BJP to gang up the rest of the castes. It is true, the BJP in the past had created division within different tribes.
But the result of 2024 Lok Sabha election indicated that the Adivasis are solidly behind the JMM as the saffron party lost all the five ST reserved seats in the state. Chief minister Soren, no doubt, has got a lot of sympathy after his arrest.
Unlike in 2019, the BJP would be going to poll in alliance with the Janata Dal (United) as well as old ally All Jharkhand Students’ Union which has a considerable hold on Kurmi-Mahto votes. They have a substantial population in Jharkhand.
During the 2019 assembly elections in Jharkhand, the BJP had paid the price of isolating tribals by installing a non-tribal, Raghubar Das, as the chief minister of Jharkhand after winning the 2014
Assembly election. In the process, it united different Adivasi tribes.
However, the problem with the INDIA alliance comprising JMM, RJD and Congress here is that they could not win a single non-ST reserve seat in the Lok Sabha election in Jharkhand held five months back. Thus, they would have to cover a lot of ground here.
Soroor Ahmed is a Patna-based freelance journalist.