After Nitish, Who? Chirag Paswan Emerges as Second-Best Choice Among NDA Supporters

Patna: The Bihar assembly elections are scheduled in the next two months. Political temperature in the state is already soaring with PM Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah making repeated visits to Bihar after Rahul Gandhi’s Voter Adhikar Yatra crisscrossed through the state. 

The upcoming battle seems to be moving towards a bipolar contest between the two primary political formations in the state – the ruling National Democratic Alliance comprising Janata Dal (United) (JDU), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) of Jitan Ram Manjhi, Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP-RV) and Upendra Khushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) and the Mahagathbandhan or the INDIA bloc comprising Rashtriya Janata Dal (EJD) , Congress, Left parties and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) of Mukesh Sahani. 

Political strategist Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraj has emerged as an excitable new entrant, but is now more likely to effect a few upsets than get an independent standing.

A pre-poll survey conducted by People’s Pulse, in which I also participated, found that the NDA, in spite of a resurgent opposition riding on the popular anger against electoral rolls’ revision, still enjoys a slight edge in what may be an election that will go down to the wire.  

However, the survey threw up a finding that Chirag Paswan has emerged as a popular face for the chief minister’s position within the NDA ahead of the polls – which is both surprising, given that his party commands strength only in a few constituencies, and interesting, as he appeared to be a more acceptable choice in the NDA than deputy chief ministers Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha. 

Nearly 28% respondents preferred Nitish Kumar over others – more than half of whom were women. Tejashwi Yadav was slightly ahead of Nitish with 29.8% choosing him as the best-suited for the chief minister’s position. Since there is no confusion regarding the leader of the INDIA bloc in Bihar, unlike the NDA, worked in Yadav’s favour. 

Chirag Paswan surprisingly closed in on both of them in the choice of CM probables. Around 18% respondents, with a sizeable number of BJP sympathisers and nearly all LJP supporters, preferred him over Nitish in case the NDA wins. Prashant Kishore, too, was the first choice for CM of nearly 10% electors, while other contenders from the BJP – Samrat Chaudhary (3%), Dilip Jaiswal and Vijay Kumar Sinha ranked far below with less than 2% people preferring them for the post. 

Congress’s maverick leader Pappu Yadav emerged as more popular than the two deputy chief ministers. Another Dalit leader in the NDA former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi was the least popular with only around 1% people choosing him for the coveted post.

Nitish Kumar – indispensable or an option out of optionlessness?

However, Chirag’s assured emergence in the state’s political map doesn’t mean that NDA supporters have outgrown Nitish Kumar, as opposition leaders may be claiming.

A People’s Pulse survey found that despite falling in the popularity scale, Nitish Kumar, considered to be not in his best mental shape, and his party still commanded a sizeable support among the EBCs and Dalits, while more women as well as those belonging to Kurmis – the third-biggest OBC group after Yadavs and Kushwahas – back the incumbent chief minister strongly.

A significant section of upper castes respondents appear to have come around after a falling out with him in the last assembly polls, and showed their trust in him. A significant percentage of respondents across castes, regions and age believe that there was no better alternative to replace him. Nitish Kumar’s biggest strength – as the survey suggested – was the perception that his acceptability, in spite of a brewing anti-incumbency, is still higher than any other leader. 

In such circumstances, he remains the biggest strength of the NDA, although it may see a drop in its combined vote share. Some respondents did raise concerns about his mental health across the state, but he still holds the anchor for the NDA in the state. 

Chirag Paswan – new kid on the block

Having said that, the emergence of Chirag Paswan as a popular face makes the NDA dynamics interesting. Chirag’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas) has a formidable support among the Dusadh/Paswan voters. His rebellion in the last elections that led him to field candidates against the JD(U) cost Nitish Kumar dearly in nearly 20 seats. But, what is the connection between CM Nitish and Chirag Paswan in this election? 

The survey asked an open ended question about CM choice to traditional NDA voters across the state and the findings were surprising. While Nitish Kumar emerged as the most popular choice by JD(U) voters, the committed BJP voters openly expressed their dislike for him. 

“Everything from which people could earn money is banned by his government - be it alcohol or sand mining,” says BJP voter Suresh Kumar (Nuniya-EBC) in Vaishali. 

“And now he is not even in a stable mental state – officers control him and make money through corruption,” he adds. 

When asked if there is any possible alternative for CM in Bihar BJP, he says, “Sab chor hain, usse achcha Chirag ko bana do (all of them are thieves, Chirag is better for it).”

When asked about state BJP leaders like state BJP president Dilip Jaiswal, and deputy CMs Samrat Chaudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha, Narayan Sah (Baniya) of Munger replies, “lokpriya nahin hain” (they are not popular). 

“We vote for BJP due to Modi, not because of any state leaders” says Jagdhari Mandal in Forbisganj. “Chirag in sab main thik hai, Nitish ki Umar ho gayi hai (Chirag is better, Nitish is too old now),” he concludes.

On asking why Chirag is a better alternative, BJP voter Kameshwar Singh (Bhumihar) of Champaran says, “He is young, hardworking, and until now there has been no scandal attached to his name; plus he follows Modiji”.

In region after region, these sentiments were repeated by BJP sympathisers across castes and ages. They disliked Nitish Kumar, felt there is no popular appeal in state BJP leaders, and considered Chirag Paswan to be a better alternative as future NDA CM candidate. The Paswan community, a loyal vote bank of LJP, felt the same. 

But what’s the appeal of Chirag Paswan? Patna based senior journalist Kamlesh says, “He has a very clean image and no scandals are associated with him. He has proven himself as a seasoned leader by steering his party from crisis to victory. His style of speaking invokes hope, that he is genuinely willing to do something for Bihar. He is from SC community, so will fit well into the larger social dynamic borne out of a political alliance between upper castes and smaller castes. None will be intimidated by his rise, unlike Tejaswi who is a Yadav, a caste group seen as aggressive.”

“Even in regions where LJP doesn’t have much influence or an organisation, people have a positive opinion about him,” he says.

What Kamlesh says was vindicated by the survey findings. On asking why he wants Chirag to replace Nitish, 25-year-old BJP sympathiser in Aurangabad, Suraj Singh, says, “He is young like us and in Bihar’s politics, now the young should replace the old. The older generation is no longer capable of development.” 

The survey found that Chirag’s connection with the youth was not limited to Magadh or South Bihar but was spread across the state. A loyal vote base, clean image and caste background rooted in the Dusadh SC community made him a formidable contender for the CM’s position in the NDA. 

However, there lies a problem. “Chirag might be liked by BJP and LJP voters, but Nitish has a bigger following of his own and both dislike each other,” says veteran journalist Abhay Mohan Jha. 

“JD(U) is likely to contest more than 100 seats this time, and they are insisting on contesting more seats than BJP. LJP, on the other hand, is likely to get 30-40 seats, and the chances of Chirag rebelling like last time are almost negligible. So, he has a long way to go.”

Rajan Pandey is a freelance journalist. He is associated with the survey agency People’s Pulse.

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