After Ajit Pawar's Defection, Eknath Shinde May Feel the Heat

Mumbai: Just over a year ago, when Eknath Shinde planned a coup and vertically split the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, many within the party and its allies were shocked. The shock was not because a split in the party was unforeseeable, but because a party loyalist did it. Shinde went away with over 40 of Sena’s 55 MLAs; he negotiated the best position for himself in the new alliance and became Maharashtra’s chief minister too.

Now, he no longer remains the key player. The Bharatiya Janata Party, which was instrumental in planning and executing the coup, has found a new “partner in crime” in rebel Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leaders. Nine of them, including Ajit Pawar, joined the existing Eknath Shinde-Devendra Fadnavis government on July 2. But this makes Shinde’s position in the government precarious. 

Here's why.

In 2019, the BJP won 105 out of the assembly's 288 seats, making it the single largest party in the state. So, when Shinde came along with 40 MLAs in 2022, he offered the BJP a chance to govern the state again. He had bargaining power and took the chief minister's chair, pushing Fadnavis on to the back seat. 

Both the speaker and the Election Commission gave a favourable nod to Shinde, allowing him to continue in government. The Supreme Court on May 11 said it could not restore the Uddhav Thackeray-led Mahavikas Aghadi government but handed over the decision of determining Uddhav's disqualification petitions against Shinde and others to the speaker, adding that he “must decide the disqualification within a reasonable period”. 

It has been close to two months since the apex court’s order and the speaker is yet to take a decision. In a similar case from Meghalaya, the Supreme Court had set up a three-month time frame for the disqualification process to be completed. The Supreme Court, in the order, explicitly stated that the speaker’s decision to appoint Bharat Gogawale as the party whip was illegal. The court’s decision was on a petition filed by the Thackeray-led Sena group seeking the disqualification of Shinde and 15 other MLAs who jumped ship first. 

On July 4, Shiv Sena (UBT) party MP Sunil Prabhu moved the Supreme Court, seeking a direction to speaker Rahul Narvekar to expeditiously decide on the disqualification pleas, pending since last year. In the petition, Prabhu states that he has already sent three separate representations to the speaker to convene a hearing on the disqualification plea. The speaker, however, is yet to act on the matter. 

Disqualification of the 16 MLAs would not harm the BJP, who would still have the remaining 24 MLAs from the Shinde faction, and, now, additional MLAs from the NCP. According to Ajit Pawar, he has the support of close to 40 MLAs. Of them, eight – excluding Pawar – have already taken oath as ministers. 

Two reasons for Pawar's defection

Many within the opposition and even the BJP say that the recent decision was taken keeping two things in mind. One is the assembly election in late 2024 and the other the ego tussle that both Shinde and Fadnavis find themselves in over the past month. A BJP functionary told The Wire that Shinde would not work well in favour of the party in the elections.  

Both Ajit Pawar and Shinde belong to the dominant Maratha community. But their capacity to attract voters are of a very different kind. “Shinde is no mass leader. He was always known for his organisational skills. But never for his mass appeal. On the contrary, Ajit Pawar, has a sizeable clout in the (Maratha) community,” said a senior NCP leader.  

Shinde, along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, appeared in full-page advertisements across several state dailies. The advertisement carried a tagline: “Modi for India, Shinde for Maharashtra”. Thought Shinde claimed that the advertisement was put out by some of his supporters and that he or his party had no role to play in it, the advertisement led to confrontations within the alliance. Unusually, BJP leaders resorted to open criticism of Shinde and his faction. 

Deputy CM and BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis speaks as Maharashtra CM and Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde looks on during a press conference, in Mumbai. Photo: PTI

The recent decision to induct NCP MLAs, many within the BJP claim, is also to cut Shinde to size. Fadnavis, who had reluctantly agreed to become the deputy CM, wanted to make it clear who the real boss is. 

Soon after Ajit Pawar joined the government, senior opposition leaders like Sanjay Raut and Prithviraj Chavan hinted at the possibility of making Ajit Pawar the next chief minister of the state. Ajit Pawar has already been the deputy chief minister of the state five times – three times in the past four years. His ambition of becoming the chief minister of Maharashtra is not hidden. In fact, in one of the media interactions, he had said, “Yes, I would 100% like to be.”

The speaker already has petitions relating to defecting MLAs from the Sena pending before him. Now, NCP leader Jayant Patil has also sent a petition against Ajit Pawar and eight other MLAs who walked away from the party. Opposition leaders say the petitions would be kept pending until the general elections, scheduled for mid-next year.

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