Amid Gloom, Some Glimmers of Hope for the Congress in Madhya Pradesh

Bhopal: Predictably enough, morale of the Congress in Madhya Pradesh is at its lowest ebb as the party stares at the prospect of losing the lone seat (Chhindwara) it won, out of 29 seats, in the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

An aggressive Bharatiya Janata Party has ensured that the main opponent in the election does not recover from the sense of gloom and doom; it has starved the Congress of funding for its campaign; has crippled the opposition by engineering a mass exodus of leaders across the state; and has completely dominated the electioneering by extravagantly splurging vast resources. A dispirited Congress is virtually left with no option but to pray that the voters might come to its rescue this time around and reject the BJP’s strong-arm tactics to throttle the opposition. The optimism is higher for a dozen-odd seats where the candidates rather than the party are being viewed as potential uplifters of the Congress’s sagged morale.

Congress’s dismal track record

However, given the track record of the previous Lok Sabha elections, any dramatic turnaround in the voters’ preference appears too much to hope for. The BJP had won 28 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election by securing 61.2% votes, while the Congress trailed far behind at 35.8%. Significantly, the previous election had followed barely five months after the Congress’s stunning victory in the 2018 assembly election. In comparison, the coming election is taking place months after the Congress’s crushing defeat in the 2023 assembly election. The BJP surprised everyone by retaining power, winning 163 seats against the Congress’s paltry 62.

In view of the rising trend of support for the party, the BJP has justifiable reason to hope for surpassing the 2019 election record.

In 1980, the BJP garnered a voter turnout of 45.3%, slightly lower than the Congress’s 50.2%, with other parties securing 4.5% of the votes. In subsequent elections, the voter turnout for both BJP and Congress showed incremental increases, with the BJP surpassing the main opponent in 1996 with 54.5% compared to 42.9%. This trend continued in subsequent elections, with the BJP consistently maintaining higher voter turnouts compared to the Congress.

Polling in four phases

Madhya Pradesh is scheduled to vote during the first four phases on April 19 and 26 and May 7 and 13. The state’s 29 Lok Sabha constituencies will participate in the electoral process as per the following breakdown:

Urban MP is BJP’s bastion

The constituencies represent a diverse range of regions and demographics. From urban centres like Indore in Malwa to rural constituencies like Tikamgarh in Bundelkhand, the state’s electoral map reflects its political significance in national elections.

In the urban constituencies such as Indore, Jabalpur, Sagar and Bhopal, the BJP is so well entrenched that speculation about poll prospects is reduced to the victory margins of the ruling party’s candidates. Candidates’ own standing has ceased to matter.

In Bhopal, for instance, Malegaon bomb blast accused Pragya Singh Thakur routed Congress stalwart Digvijaya Singh by over three lakh votes.

Shivraj Singh returns to Vidisha citadel  

The neighbouring Vidisha seat is another virtually impregnable BJP bastion since 1984. This time, former chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has returned as the BJP candidate after a gap of 19 years. Chouhan represented the seat since 1991 after former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee vacated it, shifting to Lucknow.

Chouhan’s powerful propaganda machinery has already created a narrative that he is tipped to be an important Union minister in the next cabinet, triggering a mass exodus in the Congressmen and women of the region. His candidature also indicates that the former chief minister still wields enough political clout to be in the reckoning for a powerful position in the party, and possibly, in the next government. He is not down and out after being divested of the chief minister’s post.

His Congress opponent Pratap Bhanu Sharma had won from the Vidisha seat in 1984. Since then, the Congress has continued to face defeats on the seat with huge margins.

Scindia in Guna

Likewise, Union aviation minister Jyotiraditya Scindia is also in an advantageous position as his supporters are telling voters in Guna that ‘Maharaj’ will get a more important portfolio in the next Modi cabinet. He had lost the 2019 Lok Sabha election as te Congress candidate. The stunning loss was said to be the primary reason behind his defecting to the BJP in March 2020 that resulted in the fall of the Kamal Nath-led Congress government.

The Congress has fielded former MLA Rao Yadavdndra Singh to take on Scindia, in view of the fact that the Yadav community has a sizeable presence in the constituency. The BJP candidate who had defeated Scindia was also a Yadav.

BJP attack on Kamal Nath’s bastion

While the odds are heavily staked against the Congress, there are a few seats where the party hopes to turn the tide on the strength of the candidates’ personal stature.

Of these few seats, Chhindwara, of course, stands on the top. The BJP is hell-bent on snatching this lone Congress bastion where former chief minister Kamal Nath’s son Nakul Nath is seeking re-election. His candidature preceded rumours about the father-son duo joining the BJP. This did not happen. The BJP maintained that it had closed its doors for the duo. A BJP leader who came out openly against Kamal Nath’s joining the party was its general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya. Now Vijaygargiya is tasked with ensuring Nakul Nath’s defeat.

However, suspicion about the senior Nath’s loyalty to the Congress still looms large on his son’s campaign, even as a large number of the Congress veteran’s supporters including an MLA and Chhindwara mayor have deserted him to join the BJP. The most significant name in the massive exodus from the Congress to the BJP in Chhindwara is Deepak Saxena, a staunch Kamal Nath confidante who had vacated his assembly seat to enable his boss to win as chief minister in 2019.

Although the Congress dominates the Chhindwara Lok Sabha seat, having won all the seven assembly segments under it, Nakul Nath is facing a tough fight against the BJP’s Vivek Bunty Sahu.

Kamal Nath is staying put in Chhindwara and mobilising support for his son, using an emotional touch on the electorate. Besides, he is citing all the development works he initiated as nine-time Lok Sabha member from the parliamentary constituency.

Even Kamal Nath’s bitter critics grudgingly admit that people in Chhindwara still look up to him as someone who transformed the backward tribal district into a model of modern development by bringing in industries.

The Nath family still enjoys a huge reservoir of support, as was evident during the filing of nomination papers by the Congress candidate. But this time, Nakul Nath is pitted against the combined might of the state government and vast resources of the BJP – both human and material.

Digvijaya Singh in Rajgarh

Even as Kamal Nath is struggling hard to save his Chhindwara citadel, his old-time friend Digvijaya Singh has been conducting vigorous foot-marches to win back his Rajgarh seat which he had vacated in 1994 after being elected chief minister. An avid foot-marcher, the septuagenarian Congress leader has earned praise from the voters in his traditional constituency for his sheer endurance and stamina. His BJP opponent, Rodmal Nagar, is banking largely on the cadre support from the RSS to which he belongs. Digvijaya Singh’s peripatetic style of  campaigning – he travels almost 15 km daily on foot – has helped him revive old memories of his long association with the people across the constituency. His sharp memory has come in handy to connect with the people.

However, the real test of his popularity will come to pass when RSS volunteers from across the country will flock to Rajgarh to canvass for the BJP candidate in coming days. Rajgarh is slated to go on poll on May 7 in the third phase.

Congress optimism in tribal seats

Yet another stalwart and former Union minister Kantilal Bhuria has raised hopes in the otherwise dejected Congress camp of a possible victory. The tribal leader is contesting from his traditional Ratlam-Jhabua (ST) seat against the BJP’s Anita Nagar Singh Chouhan.

In fact, not only in Jhabua but also in other tribal-dominated seats in the state, the Congress is optimistic about a good showing. In the Mandla seat in the Mahakoshal region, Congress candidate Omkar Singh Markam is giving a tough fight to the BJP candidate, Faggan Singh Kulaste. The Congress’s hope for the Mandla seat stems from the facts that Kulaste had lost his assembly seat in 2023 under the Mandla parliamentary constituency, while Markam won another assembly seat by a big margin. Markam is a Rahul Gandhi acolyte and a member of the Congress Working Committee.

In Shahdol (ST) seat too, the Congress is optimistically banking on the popularity of its candidate Fundelal Marko against  BJP’s Himadri Singh. Rahul Gandhi addressed an election meeting for the Congress candidate. However, the losing streak of the grand old party in previous elections doesn’t support the Congress’s optimism.

Chambal and Vindhya regions

There are many non-tribal seats such as Satna, Rewa, Gwalior, Bhind and Morena where personal appeal of the Congress candidates might overcome that of Narendra Modi’s.

In Satna, the BJP has fielded sitting MP Ganesh Singh despite him losing the assembly election a few months ago.  His Congress opponent Siddharth Kushwaha is an MLA. The caste combination in the Satna seat appears to favour the Congress. In the adjacent Rewa seat, Neelam Mishra is taking on sitting BJP MP Janardan Mishra. In Gwalior, Phool Singh Baraiya’s personal appeal transcends the Congress’s ideological base. In the Bhind and Morena seats in the Gwalior region, caste equations coupled with the candidates’ popularity seem to be favouring the Congress.

That said, it is still early days to say whether the 2019 voting pattern will repeat itself or the Congress will spring a surprise.