Nalin Verma 
Patna: The political discourse in Bihar took a dramatic turn with Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s comments on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s role in the 2025 Assembly elections.
In mid-December 2024, Shah, responding to a reporter’s query on whether Nitish would be the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) face for the polls, was non-committal.
“The party’s parliamentary board will decide at the appropriate time,” he said, avoiding a direct answer.
This was in stark contrast to the clear endorsements by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Shah during the 2024 Lok Sabha campaign in Bihar, where they had unequivocally stated that Nitish would lead the NDA and remain Chief Minister.
Following Shah’s statement, Nitish skipped the high-profile “Bihar Business Connect 2024” event, citing health reasons. Discontent brewed within Janata Dal (United), with some leaders expressing concerns over the confusion Shah’s remarks could create ahead of the polls.
Speculation about Nitish’s political moves intensified, fueled by his history of switching alliances. However, BJP Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary quickly clarified, “Nitish Kumar will lead the NDA campaign in 2025,” a stance echoed by other state BJP leaders.
Meanwhile, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad Yadav added fuel to the fire by stating, “Our doors are open for Nitish. We will pardon him if he decides to return.”
However, his son and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav dismissed the notion, saying, “There is no offer to the CM from the RJD. Lalu ji has his own style; it was just a passing remark.”
Nitish, who has remained largely silent in public, recently made a rare statement to counter perceptions of BJP influence over his administration. In what appeared to be a rehearsed and laboured response, he said, “The RJD has done nothing for Bihar. We’ve done all the work. I mistakenly aligned with them twice but have returned to our old ally, the BJP. There’s no going back now.”
BJP’s strategy: Consolidation in Bihar
Since Narendra Modi’s rise to power in 2014, the BJP has worked consistently to establish unilateral dominance in Bihar, a state with 40 Lok Sabha and 243 Assembly seats. Over the years, the BJP has sought to marginalise Nitish, employing strategies akin to its “Operation Lotus,” used to topple governments in states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh.
Nitish, wary of such moves, has repeatedly switched alliances, oscillating between the BJP and the opposition in a political balancing act. Following the 2020 Assembly elections, the Janata Dal (United) [JDU] accused the BJP of sabotaging its prospects by backing Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which fielded candidates against the JDU despite being part of the NDA.
Tensions escalated when Nitish expelled his former aide and Union Minister R.C.P. Singh, accusing him of aligning with Modi and Shah to undermine the JDU. This mistrust led Nitish to join the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan in 2022, which later became part of the INDIA bloc.
The BJP’s recent success in Maharashtra, where it replaced Eknath Shinde with its own leader Devendra Fadnavis as Chief Minister, has further raised concerns in Bihar. Amit Shah’s recent ambiguous remarks on Nitish’s role in the 2025 elections were perceived as a test for implementing “Operation Lotus” in the state.
However, the BJP appears to have deferred its plans to unseat Nitish, as his support remains crucial for the Modi government, which depends on allies like the JDU for its Lok Sabha majority. For now, the BJP aims to strengthen its position in the 2025 Assembly elections with Nitish as an ally, potentially adopting a more aggressive approach post-elections.
Nitish’s inner circle, composed of bureaucrats and select political aides, has reportedly insulated him from opposition leaders like Lalu Prasad Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav, making direct engagement with him increasingly difficult.
Unusual Nitish and his inner circle
Nitish Kumar is no longer the decisive and sharp leader he once was, a point repeatedly highlighted by Tejashwi Yadav, who has questioned the Chief Minister’s mental and physical health.
“Nitish ji is not in his senses. He is tired, not in a position to make decisions. A coterie of bureaucrats and BJP-aligned politicians makes decisions on his behalf,” Tejashwi alleged.
While the JDU’s working president Sanjay Jha has publicly defended Nitish, murmurs within the party suggest unease about his declining health. In Patna’s political corridors, speculation about Nitish’s unusual behavior has fueled rumours of his diminishing ability to lead.
Observers note that the Nitish of old – known for his political acuity and Socialist roots – would have anticipated and countered the BJP’s moves with precision. Today, his decisions appear heavily influenced by a close-knit group, including former Chief Secretary Dipak Kumar and Cabinet colleague Vijay Kumar Choudhary, both of whom avoid making public statements.
As speculations swirl about Nitish’s future moves, it is evident that while the political conditions may be ripe for another shift, the Chief Minister’s current state may hinder decisive action.
Nalin Verma is a senior journalist and author. He teaches mass communication and creative writing at Jamia Hamdard University, New Delhi