New Delhi: Bihar votes in 121 constituencies in the first of the two-phase assembly polls on Thursday (November 6). As the pitched campaign unfolded over the last month, it became clear that the contest was becoming more and more bi-polar, in spite of the spirited entry of the Jan Suraaj Party led by Prashant Kishor. The contest seems to have concentrated between the two big political fronts – the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan (MGB) and the Janata Dal (United) (JDU)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

In the NDA, 57 JD(U), 48 BJP, 13 Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP) and two Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Morcha candidates are in the fray.

In the MGB, 71 candidates from the RJD, 24 from the Congress, 18 from Left parties, six from the Mukesh Sahani-led Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP) and two from the I.P. Gupta-led Indian Inclusive Party will test their electoral fortunes.

Certain trends emerged during an unforeseen canvassing that became shriller by the day and largely came to be articulated both on the streets and in the corridors of politics as a straight contest between the RJD's Tejashwi Yadav and the incumbent chief minister Nitish Kumar of the JD(U).

One, the opposition MGB alliance focussed all its energy on raising the issues of unemployment and distress migration as its primary plank.

In the 2020 assembly polls, Tejashwi emerged as a youth icon who for the first time raised the issue of widespread unemployment in Bihar. Five years down the line, he also incorporated the concern over distress migration that Prashant Kishor first picked as his political plank, into his campaign's agenda.

Contrastingly, the NDA instead of relying on its performance tossed between different issues before settling in to create a fear of “jungle raj” – a phrase that has become popular for aiming at the worsening law and order situation during the regimes led by Tejashwi's father Lalu Prasad Yadav.

The BJP initially attempted to rake up the issue of “illegal infiltration” in Bihar, much along the lines of Jharkhand. However, when it turned up without many takers, and after a cautious note by its partner Nitish Kumar, the BJP nearly abandoned what was initially a state-wide campaign, with both the prime minister and the Union home minister picking up threads from its Jharkhand campaign. Instead, it chose to keep the issue local and customised it to suit its Hindutva needs only in the predominantly Muslim Seemanchal region.

Also read: In ‘Young’ Bihar, Race for Elusive Government Jobs Spotlight Unemployment Crisis

Two, in spite of speculation around Nitish Kumar's failing cognitive and physical health, he has still emerged as the biggest pole in the assembly elections, once again. In fact, never in the last few elections has he managed to draw in so much vocal support for himself like this time.

Usually, his supporters, largely belonging to the 36% EBC population and a substantial chunk of Dalits, remain muted, choosing to show their support only by casting their votes in favour of him on polling day, while more socially vocal communities that support either the RJD or the BJP lead the campaign talk.

However, the 2025 assembly polls saw a huge number of Nitish's supporters, especially women from diverse backgrounds, come out openly to back him at a time when he was at the receiving end of criticisms both around his governance and his ability to assume another term in the top chair.

His supporters weren't merely critical of the RJD camp, which showed incredible restraint in handling Nitish's poor health in the later stages of the campaign, but also the allied BJP that for the first time desisted from declaring the septuagenarian leader as the NDA's chief ministerial candidate.

The latter fuelled anger among Nitish's supporters that he may not be chosen the chief minister after a win, which eventually forced the BJP leaders to state that the incumbent was leading the NDA, although it still stopped short of declaring him as the CM in line.

He could not campaign with zeal, nor did he address his usual gatherings, give long speeches or walk with the PM like in all his other campaigns. But the counter-polarisation in favour of Nitish as his abilities were questioned not only neutralised talk about his failure at the governance front, but practically anointed him the sole spokesperson of the most marginalised sections of Bihar and also as someone who remains unmatched in governance.

The campaign eventually reduced the BJP into a truly nondescript force in Bihar, with the electoral contest becoming increasingly a choice between the legacies of Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar – both of whom were borne out of the social justice politics of the 1970s and 1980s, and continue to have a lasting impact on state politics.

It forced the BJP to take a step back from its Hindutva agenda, as it gave retraining orders to its polarising leaders like Giriraj Singh and others, and bank entirely on creating a fear about the return of “jungle raj” if the RJD is voted to power.

However, with Nitish's poor health taking a toll on him, the NDA is staring at a serious leadership crisis – something it could avert in the 2025 assembly polls by handing over the reins to him even if reluctantly, and perhaps for the last time. There is no leader who can match Nitish's guile and popularity, even as Tejashwi has established himself as the opposition's undisputed leader in Bihar. Tejashwi's inclination to expand the RJD's political camp beyond the traditional Muslim-Yadav combine will only strengthen him for the long run, irrespective of the outcome in 2025.

Also read: Modi's Patna Roadshow May Have Kept Nitish Out, But at Home, CM's Legacy Endures

Three, after an untiring anti-opposition pitch by the mainstream media for over two months, clearly to sway the elections towards the NDA, Bihar remains a closer-than-ever contest.

Both the NDA and MGB blocs have tried to fatten themselves by bringing in more partners. The NDA has consolidated its already formidable social coalition by looping in Paswan, Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi, while the INDIA bloc too has allied with Sahani, Gupta and Pasupati Paras to draw support from diverse communities.

The 2020 assembly polls took place against the backdrop of Nitish's sudden switch to the NDA and with Lalu Prasad in the Ranchi jail. Tejashwi led from the front, and over the last few years has blossomed as a mass leader.

The last assembly polls also showed that there was practically no difference between the two camps in terms of vote share. The NDA received 37.26% of votes, while the MGB was placed at 37.23 per cent – a difference of only 12,700 votes in absolute terms.

The contest appears to be similarly close this time around, with even marginal swings changing the direction of the electoral tally for any camp.

In such a scenario, Prashant Kishor is likely to play a spoiler role – but for whom remains to be seen. His party is crucially placed, and can surely emerge as the X factor in determining the outcome. His campaign faded on the ground after elections were announced. However, he could still secure anywhere between 5-7% of votes, which will be enough to make or break either the NDA or the MGB.

Four, as Bihar contests, its social flux, with each community looking for greater political representation than before, hyper-local political factors are likely to dictate assembly-wise results. Candidate selection, the social backgrounds of those candidates, a third candidate spoiling the more dominant player's share, local anti-incumbency against sitting legislators – all such factors may play a bigger role than any big political narrative.

In that sense, the state can witness 243 different electoral patterns. Of course, ideological frameworks advanced by both the alliances will play a dominant role, but may not be the single-biggest electoral factor in the 2025 assembly poll given the way it is currently placed.

However, the polarisation in terms of political preferences that one came across during the campaign indicated that the sharp divisions along caste lines have deepened further, and that there may be a rebirth of Mandal politics in the days to come – a Mandal 2.0 moment in which hissedari (equity) more than bhaagidaari (participation) will emerge as the single-most significant political factor in Bihar.

Also read: The 2022 Caste Survey Hovers Over the 2025 Bihar Assembly Polls. Here’s How

Here are some of the important constituencies voting on November 6.

Raghopur: Tejashwi's seat, his family pocketborough. He is facing the NDA's Satish Yadav once again.

Tarapur: Here, Bihar deputy chief minister Samrat Chaudhary is contesting against Arun Kumar Sah of the RJD in what is expected to be a nail-biting contest. Chaudhary is contesting a direct election after 15 years from this Munger seat which once had his father Shakuni Chaudhary as a MLA from both the Congress and the RJD.

Mahua: Renegade RJD leader and Lalu Prasad's eldest son Tej Pratap Yadav is contesting here as an independent candidate this time. He is up against sitting RJD MLA Mukesh Kumar Raushan and the LJP's Sanjay Kuamr Singh.

Mokama: This high-profile seat became a talking point after the murder of opposition leader Dularchand Yadav, and the subsequent arrest of strongman Anant Singh for the crime. Anant Singh is also the JD(U) candidate and is contesting against Veena Devi, the wife of another strongman Suraj Bhan Singh, of the RJD in this seat.

Alinagar: The seat shot to fame after the BJP nominated popular folk singer Maithili Thakur to contest from here. She has campaigned to change Alinagar's name to Sitanagar. Alinagar was known for electing veteran RJD leader Abdul Bari Siddiqui seven times in the past.

Chhapra: Popular Bhojpuri singer Khesari Lal Yadav is contesting from this seat. His nomination was widely talked about after a BJP leader referred to him derogatorily as a “nachaniya” (dancer).

Lakhisarai: Bihar deputy chief minister Vijay Kumar Sinha will seek to be re-elected from this seat. That he possessed two voter identity cards came under criticism from the opposition when the special intensive revision was being debated a few months ago. His primary rival here is Amresh Kumar of the Congress.

Arrah: Known for its anti-Dalit violence in the past, the MGB has nominated the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation's Qayumuddin Ansari, who is incidentally the poorest candidate in the fray. He is up against the BJP's Sanjay Singh “Tiger” and Vijay Kumar Gupta of the Jan Suraaj Party. Ansari had lost the 2020 polls by a very close margin to the BJP's Amrendra Pratap Singh.

Darbhanga Urban: The state's revenue minister and BJP leader Sanjay Saraogi will seek his sixth term as the town's legislator, but challenging him here is Jan Suraaj's R.K.Mishra, who is a former IPS officer.

The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.