New Delhi: The opposition INDIA bloc’s move to name Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav as the Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial face has put the spotlight on the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s refusal to formally declare sitting chief minister Nitish Kumar as its own chief ministerial candidate. 

Statements made by Union home minister Amit Shah, the non-declaration of Nitish Kumar as the NDA’s chief ministerial face, along with the 29 seats to Nitish’s bete noir Chirag Paswan, have stirred speculation that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may be even looking to have an upper caste chief minister this time, after the polls, like it did in Maharashtra by naming Devendra Fadnavis, despite fighting the election in Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde’s name.

The opposition alliance’s move to name Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) chief Mukesh Sahani as its deputy chief ministerial face has also raised questions for the BJP about how to commit equally visibly to empowering the state’s 36% Extremely Backward Castes (EBC) vote share, with the alliance only giving about 15% of NDA tickets to the EBCs. 

Moments after Tejashwi was formally announced as the alliance’s chief ministerial face, by senior Congress leader and former Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot, the RJD leader hit out at the NDA and alleged that “injustice” is being done to Nitish.

“Ashok Gehlot ji has rightly said that we have done a joint press conference and prior to this we have all sat together also several times. But the injustice that is happening with Nitish Kumar… no press conferences, and nor has there been any official confirmation of him being the chief ministerial face,” he said.

“We have been saying from the beginning that the NDA will not make Nitish Kumar the chief minister. This has been confirmed by none other than Union home minister Amit Shah himself, not once, but several times, that the legislature party will decide the chief minister,” he added.

Amit Shah’s reluctance

Last week, it was Shah who had set the cat among the pigeons when he refused to name Nitish as the NDA’s chief ministerial face and instead said that a decision will be taken by the elected MLAs after the elections.

"Who am I to make anyone chief minister? So many parties are part of the alliance. After the elections all MLAs will sit together and pick their leader. Right now we are fighting the elections under the leadership of Nitish Kumar,” Shah said in an interview to India Today.

When asked about whether Nitish will be made the chief minister even if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wins more seats than the Janata Dal United (JDU), Shah said that even now the saffron party has more seats in the Bihar assembly.

"Even now we have more seats. Nitish Kumar is an important leader in Indian politics. He has never been in the Congress. Whenever he has been with the Congress it has not been more than 2.5 years. So if anyone's political life has to be assessed it should be seen through this lens. He has been a socialist leader who has opposed Congress, been a part of the JP movement and was a part of the Emergency as well. Not just the BJP even the people of Bihar trust him," he said.

Shah, however, made it a point to also state that after the 2020 assembly elections, when the BJP had won 74 seats against the JD(U)’s 43, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had given Nitish the chief minister’s berth keeping in mind his “seniority.”

"The BJP believes in alliances. In the 2020 assembly elections, Nitish Kumar ji had called Prime Minister Narendra Modi and said you have won more seats, so chief minister should be from your party and we will support it. Still, the Prime Minister, looking at his seniority, said that you become the leader, we have no objections. We have always respected the gathbandhan (alliance) and we will do so this time again,” Shah said.

The Union home minister’s statement comes as the two parties are contesting an equal number of seats, 101 each, in Bihar for the first time. 

Following his statement, JD(U) leaders have reiterated that Shah’s remarks implied that Nitish Kumar was the chief ministerial face.

In a post on X on October 17, JD(U) leader Neeraj Kumar wrote in Hindi:

"The sun sets, the moon sets, the entire world sets – Nitish Kumar does not set from the Chief Minister's chair!  This is the perception of the people, and Hon'ble Home Minister Amit Shah has also said Nitish Kumar is one of the top leaders of the country; while discussing his works, he said – the election will be under his leadership.”

Since then, while other leaders of the NDA including Union minister Giriraj Singh have said that Nitish will be the NDA’s face, BJP leaders even on Thursday (October 23), after the Mahagathbandhan’s joint press conference, took Nitish’s name in the same breath as Modi’s. 

Yet, the alliance and its top leadership has stopped short of formally announcing Nitish as the chief ministerial face. Shah met Nitish earlier this week, but no announcement was made then either, nor has any joint press conference been held to announce any seat sharing arrangements.

The Paswan factor

Adding fuel to the fire is the role of Union minister Chirag Paswan and questions of whether his party – the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP(RV)) – will be used to checkmate the JD(U). The seeds of this are in Paswan’s candidates defeating JD(U) in key contests in 2020, reducing the JD(U) to the third largest party in the assembly.

The LJP(RV) has been given 29 seats in the NDA seat sharing deal, leading to discontent not only from the JD(U) but also smaller allies, including Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM), both of which will contest six seats each. 

Last week, Kushwaha even went on to say “nothing is well in the NDA” before meeting Shah and then stating that the NDA is united. 

Paswan, on his part, has defended Shah’s statement and said that the home minister was only citing procedure.

"No controversy has arisen. Union home minister Amit Shah spoke about the normal procedure, and this is the same process followed for the election of a chief minister or a Prime Minister. Elected MLAs pick their leader. What is new in what the home minister has said? We are fighting the election under Nitish Kumar,” said Paswan on October 17.

In 2020, Paswan’s party had contested 135 of Bihar’s 243 assembly seats independently and won only one, but his move to field candidates to take on the JD(U) had caused reverses to the JD(U)’s final tally. 

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, however, the LJP(RV) won all five of the seats it contested and became a key alliance partner for the NDA government at the centre when the BJP won 240 seats.

In interviews, Paswan has made clear that he was forced to field candidates against the JD(U) in 2020 but was “dedicated” to Modi to not field any candidates against the BJP.

“I had the choice to join the Mahagathbandhan (in 2020), but I was too dedicated to PM Modi that even when I quit the alliance, I did not field my party’s candidates against the BJP. I had no other option but to field candidates against JD(U), which caused them to suffer losses,” said Paswan to ANI on October 19. 

“The anger over this was entirely justifiable, and the anger of Bihar CM Nitish Kumar was understandable. Now, all the concerns between me and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar have been resolved. For the first time, my party is contesting elections to ensure Nitish Kumar becomes the Chief Minister of Bihar,” he said.

With the BJP routinely reiterating that the elections are being contested under Nitish’s leadership while stopping short of formally naming him as the chief minister, speculation has also been rife due to the saffron party’s moves in Maharashtra. 

Following the assembly elections last year, the BJP removed Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde and made him the deputy chief minister while placing Devendra Fadnavis as the chief minister.

Whether Nitish will meet such a fate will only be known after the elections, but for now Shah has sought to sidestep any such announcements by instead stating that wherever the BJP has formed governments whether on its own or in alliance, it has been an “NDA government”, where the alliance dharma has been followed.

However, the BJP may look to avoid repeating Maharashtra in Bihar due to the role the JD(U) plays in shoring up Modi’s government in Delhi. 

Without the JD(U) and TDP, the BJP has only 240 Lok Sabha seats and would not be able to run the government it is currently running at the centre.

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