As Nitish Fades, the BJP Waits – But Its Hindutva May Not Fill His Mandal Shoes
Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta
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A senior journalist recently recalled for me how in the 1995 assembly elections in Bihar, the largely upper caste-dominated newsrooms of Patna propped up Nitish Kumar, then the leader of the regional Samata Party, as the best alternative to Lalu Prasad Yadav. Each newspaper, he said, flashed Nitish, his speeches, his manifesto on the front pages zealously, as if they shouldered an obligation to oust Lalu from power.
It turned out that Nitish’s party could win only seven of the 310 seats that it contested in the then united Bihar, while Lalu scored one of his biggest victories.
Nitish emerged as an OBC leader whose primary message was sushashan (good governance), then a really attractive proposition for Bihar’s electorate after years of Lalu’s sole focus on questions of social dignity, often at the cost of many other pertinent concerns.
Although born out of the JP movement, Nitish united the opposition in Bihar by allying with the BJP and finally managed to dislodge Lalu in the October 2005 assembly elections. As an effective challenger to Lalu, Nitish kept his family away from the power corridors, focused on governance, enabled and elevated leaders from underrepresented and marginalised communities, and shook hands with the so-called “forwards” or ‘upper caste’ groups to create a social alliance so formidable that it has held him in good stead until 2025.
Also read: Modi's Patna Roadshow May Have Kept Nitish Out, But at Home, CM's Legacy Endures
During his tenure as the chief minister, the wily Nitish, who lacked a loyal social support, created a mass base of his own by creating creating separate administrative classes of Extremely Backward Class (EBC) and Mahadalits (extremely marginalised Dalits), which incidentally were also the biggest group of electors if put together.
At one go, Nitish not only established himself as the tallest leader of non-dominant communities in Bihar, but numerically very influential if put together, to tackle Lalu’s devoted Yadav-Muslim support, but also gained an upper hand on the BJP, which was until then the main opposition party in the state.
The saffron party represented nearly 15% exclusive votes in 2005, most of which came from the ‘upper’ caste groups, and remains largely so even in 2025. Without a pre-poll coalition with Nitish, the BJP remains only a marginal part of the larger anti-RJD social coalition. Remember, how in spite of Modi’s energetic leadership, the BJP was taken to the cleaners in the 2015 assembly polls in which Nitish and Lalu had joined ranks, with its vote share hovering around merely 25%, even in the role of primary opposition.
Among all states where the BJP is in power, it has the least liberty to go the whole hog against Muslims in Bihar; the single reason being Nitish, who may have turned a blind eye towards crass communal statements by BJP leaders while in the NDA but who has also never allowed Hindutva to balloon beyond a point that his own brand of Mandal politics is hit.
During his 20-year regime, the Sangh parivar has expanded enormously in Bihar, but has also been restricted by the buffer that is Nitish. Precisely because of this, nearly 15-20% Muslims in Bihar continue to vote for Nitish, in spite of him being in alliance with the BJP’s most-hateful avatar under the leadership of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.
No ship without Nitish at the helm
The point is that Nitish has an uncanny ability to bounce back, and hold his ground amidst all adversities. When he was written off in 1995, he worked around social dynamics to create a lasting political formula that has made him indispensable in Bihar. Now when he is again being questioned, and even aimed at, by the opposition for being allegedly mentally and physically unfit to lead yet another term, all accounts indicate that he has evoked widespread sympathy on the ground by both his loyal supporters and those who are on the fence.
Even when the BJP appeared to betray him by not officially declaring him as the NDA’s chief ministerial candidate, the political flux in Bihar forced many saffron leaders and their allies to declare Nitish leader of the ship in the course of the campaign.
However, given his failing health, his party surely is likely to run into much bigger crisis than it is currently being perceived. Multiple reports indicate that there is a tremendous sense of anxiety among the JD(U)’s loyal supporters that the BJP may have a plan to sideline Nitish, like they believe it did in 2020 assembly polls when one of the NDA allies, Chirag Paswan, fielded his men specifically against JD(U) candidates in the fray. The outcome was disastrous for the JD(U), as it fell steeply from 71 seats in 2015 to merely 43 in 2020, its lowest score ever since Nitish came to power, and when for the first time the BJP surpassed JD(U)’s tally by winning 74 seats. JD(U)’s vote share also fell sharply, by five percentage points from nearly 20% - considered to be its conventional command in the electoral fray.
Nitish may have prevented his party from being dynastic but in trying to concentrate power in his own hands, he has also failed to cultivate new leadership over the years.
As he increasingly became dependent with age, the most visible leaders in the JD(U) are Sanjay Jha and Rajeev Ranjan Singh, popularly known as Lalan Singh, both of whom represent formerly feudal caste groups and are considered close to BJP’s national leadership. If the baton is passed on to one of them, the very nature of the JD(U) as a Mandal party will take a huge beating, and open the door for unabashed Hindutva.
Nitish’s failure to project leaders from his own support base of EBC and Mahadalits will come back to haunt his party. His only attempt in elevating Jitan Ram Manjhi, a Mahadalit leader, to the chief minister’s position backfired spectacularly a few years ago, so much so that Manjhi has emerged as one of Nitish’s biggest rivals in the NDA.
Contrastingly, the crisis in the JD(U) has come as a blessing in disguise for the BJP, which has been successful in bargaining for a better share of seats in the NDA. While in 2010, BJP contested 101 seats against JD(U)’s 141, the latter’s share has only been declining. In 2020, the BJP contested in 110 constituencies, while JD(U) was in the fray in 115. However, in 2025, both have become equal partners for the first time, with 101 seats each in their share.
At the same time, the BJP may be hoping that Nitish’s loyal voter base, which has been naturalised in the NDA scheme of things, will shift towards it instead of the RJD after Nitish’s time.
The 2025 campaign, in which Nitish was a poor reflection of his earlier self, is an indication of things to come. The incumbent chief minister could not canvass with full strength, cut short his meetings and road shows, and remained nearly invisible. He didn’t even join the prime minister in his public meetings.
The BJP is biding its time before it takes full control in Bihar. Yet, it realises that till the time Nitish is around, it will remain like a fish out of water. Even in the last leg of his political career, Nitish may prove to be a sheet anchor for the NDA in Bihar – something that no one understands better than the Modi-Shah duo. He has been and will remain one of the tallest leaders of the marginalised people in India’s poorest state. However, his party JD (U) may be staring at a different future in the absence of its maker.
This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.
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