As Opposition Aims for Unity, Parties Must Be Wary of BJP's Ability to Drive a Wedge

We have 11 months left for the Lok Sabha polls, but the political confrontation has already reached a feverish pitch. And for the first time in eight years, opposition parties now have newfound synergy to work out an alliance. They are in offensive mode. There is no other explanation for the sudden surge in protracted attacks on the Narendra Modi regime by state-specific opposition groups.

It comes from Mamata Banerjee in the east, Uddhav Thackeray in the west, K. Chandashekhar Rao (KCR) in the south, and Delhi’s own Arvind Kejriwal. The prime minister is right when he said the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) had brought the opposition parties together. That is precisely what is happening now. During a protest in Kolkata, Mamata Banerjee said, “In the next elections, it will be Nandalal vs entire opposition…You bulldozed, and demolished the constitution.”

The next day she burst out, “You sold the LIC [Life Insurance Corporation] for Adani, Nandlal (BJP). If you say anything against the BJP, you are thrown out of the House. If you speak out against them, they send the ED and the CBI after you. They act as if they are the model of honesty. They are acting like feudal lords.”

On behalf of the Trinamool Congress, party MP Derek O’Brien asked Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik and Andhra Pradesh chief minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy to join the united fight against Modi and the BJP. From Hyderabad, Telangana chief minister KCR joined the opposition chorus and attacked Modi for his silence on the allegations linking him to Gautam Adani. KCR ridiculed the prime minister’s bluff on achieving a $5 trillion economy by 2022.

Uddhav Thackeray said if the BJP contested the next elections in Maharashtra in Modi’s name (without invoking Bal Thackeray), it will be routed. He asked, “Why a fine of Rs 25,000 was imposed on Kejriwal for asking for the PM’s degree?” Thackeray slammed Modi alleging that the latter is trying to control the judiciary.

Also read: ‘Don’t Let Them Steal the 2024 Vote’ Can Be the Only Agenda of Opposition Unity

AAP, the most virulent in anti-Modi outbursts

Among the opposition, only the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has put in place a structured mechanism to react to the day-to-day political developments and has become the most virulent in its anti-Modi outbursts. With its two ministers languishing in jail and regular run-ins with the lieutenant governor, AAP has been the worst victim of the BJP-led Union government’s vindictiveness. Its spokesperson Sanjay Singh never misses an opportunity to take on the Modi government and the BJP. Arvind Kejriwal, for his part, by far, has been the most ferocious Modi baiter and surprisingly gets away with it.

Take Modi’s involvement with Adani. Rahul Gandhi has been extremely careful when he raised the source of Adani’s Rs 20,000 crore investment. While he put it in the form of a few queries, Kejriwal, however, has been blunt and merciless: “Adani is just the front and the real investor behind him is Narendra Modi.” Kejriwal said it on the floor of the Delhi legislative assembly on March 28. He repeated it again: “The money invested in the Adani group belongs to Modi. Adani is just the manager.”

“Modi has taken the ports, airports, and so many resources that belonged to the country. Modi in past nine years looted 10 times the amount the Congress did since independence… He is the most corrupt PM India ever had,” Kejriwal said. He narrated how Modi prevailed on the governments of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Israel in favour of Adani. The next day, Kejriwal told the assembly that fear of ED and CBI made all corrupt people take refuge in the BJP. He alleged AAP MLAs were being offered Rs 25 crore if they defected to the BJP.

The opposition parties should thank Kejriwal for waging war on two other fronts. By way of sheer defiance, he has established that words like ‘Modi hatao, desh bachaao (Dislodge Modi to save the country)’ are no more blasphemy. When AAP put up 2,000 posters in Delhi, police removed these, filed 44 first information reports (FIRs), arrested four, and harassed the owners of the printing press.

In retaliation for FIRs, the AAP printed Modi hatao posters in 22 languages and put them up all over the country. Up until the AAP put them up, the Modi hatao posters were seen as a crime. The BJP hit back by putting up ‘Kejriwal hatao, Dilli bachao (Dislodge Kejriwal to save Delhi)’ posters.

Prime Minister Modi rattled?

The budget session of parliament ended on April 6 with an unusual show of opposition solidarity. As many as 20 opposition parties, including Trinamool Congress, Nationalist Congress Party, Bharat Rashtra Samithi, and Samajwadi Party, joined the Tiranga rally where leaders slammed the Modi regime and emphasised the need for unity. After the rally, Kharge, in his first round, contacted Nitish Kumar, Stalin, and Thackeray.

As is the norm since 2014, much of the opposition dialogue and their attacks on the Modi regime were ignored or downplayed by mainstream media. Hence, people get a distorted version of what is happening on the ‘other’ side. Some sections of the media try to play it down under coercion. The proactive “Godi media”, on the other hand, do it on a mission mode. Forget the loyal channel warriors, even those claiming the highest circulation dump positive opposition stories below the fold, often leading with ruling party spokesman’s comments.

This apart, prospects of a united fight by the opposition seem to have upset the Modi establishment’s electoral calculations. Since then, a peeved PM has been repeating the theme that the opposition was busy “digging his grave”.

Also read: Any Party Can Win an Election, But Can BJP Get Away With It Even Before Votes Are Cast?

An irked Modi said, “The ED’s actions have brought all opposition parties on one platform. It has done what the electorate could not do.”

At another party function, he said, “The opposition parties are joining hands only to save their corrupt leaders. They are maligning the ED and CBI,” Modi burst out.”

In yet another instance, Modi said, ” Today they have become so desperate that they have openly started saying Modi teri kabar khudegi (your grave will be dug). But the poor, tribals, Dalits and women will continue to protect the lotus and help it bloom.” He made the remarks at a government function in Bhopal. At the same function, he also said, “To malign me, they have given a contract — ‘supari’ — to different people, and are leading from the front…some are within the country and some are working outside the country.”

The next day former Union minister Kapil Sibal challenged the prime minister to reveal the names and prosecute them.

Will the opposition succeed? 

For the opposition to build an alliance this time around is going to be extremely difficult. A decade of Modi’s rule has altered the entire dictionary and grammar of politics and statecraft. The gross misuse of law enforcement agencies against political opponents, emasculation of constitutional watchdog bodies, vice-like control on party and government and an obliging mainstream media — all this together makes non-BJP alliances highly vulnerable to external pressures and machinations.

Also read: In a United Move, 14 Opposition Parties File Petition in SC Against ‘Misuse of Central Agencies’

The first jarring voice came from Shiv Sena on Rahul Gandhi’s remarks on Sarvakar. This happened even before the alliance was formalised. Earlier this month, NCP patriarch Sharad Pawar differed with the Congress party on the issue of the alleged ‘targeting’ of Adani. Incidentally, his party has been an active participant in joint opposition protests against the Adani group.

Though subsequently Pawar softened his position and the Congress stood its ground on the Modi-Adani nexus, the incident should alert the united opposition about the pitfalls ahead.

The opposition in India is encountering extraordinary challenges from a well-entrenched adversary with a tight hold over every aspect of political life. The BJP has the capacity to drive a wedge in emerging alliances and lure the vulnerable. Its proclivity to resort to audacious cloak-and-dagger operations has never been in doubt. This is for the first time that the opposition has had to encounter such a formidable establishment — not even under the Emergency. Hence, this time, they have to devise new solutions and strategies. This includes a reworked alliance architecture with the necessary flexibility and willingness for greater compromises.

P. Raman is the author of Tryst with Strong Leader Populism.