How the Akhil Gogoi Factor May Tilt the Electoral Scales Against Congress in Sivasagar

Sivasagar, Assam: The River Dikhow, an important tributary of the Brahmaputra in upper Assam, flows gently in the pre-monsoon season, curling through a number of villages in the state’s Sivasagar district. Allusions to Dikhou paar, the banks of the river, in Bihu songs, in Ahom history, in Assamese literature – in the community’s cultural mores – are common.

It is by this river that the Ahoms had set up their kingdom in the 13th century and went on to expand further and rule a large part of the state for over 600 years, the longest continuous reign by any kingdom in India.

On one of the river banks await a few boatmen with their canoes made of the local Ejaar trees to help people navigate the river, reach the other side, for a modest sum.

On the other side is an embankment on which a concrete road has been laid, linking a string of villages along the river to Sivasagar town, the nearest urban centre.

Haren Phukan, a marginal farmer who hawks the vegetables he produces in his field by the roadside, lives by the embankment . “A government will come and go but I will still have to work hard. I have no time to attend a political rally,” he says, pottering around his wares by the embankment, hinged on bamboo poles. Within 50 metres of his house, situated in Siripuria village of Sivasagar district, are the booths of all the political parties contesting the assembly polls from the constituency. On March 27,  he and his family will choose one of those parties when they cast their vote.

Darting his eyes at the sight, he comments, “Flag ei flag (Party flags galore). Only the Asom Jatioya Parishad (AJP) booth is missing in our village; they have left the Sivasagar assembly seat to their alliance partner, Raijor Dal (RD).” With a laugh, he adds, “Two days ago, someone put a flag of the CPI too in the Congress booth because they are also a part of the opposition mahajut (grand alliance). In the neighbouring booth, they then put an Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) flag as it is part of the BJP mitrajut (alliance of friends). Close competition!”

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AJP and RD, two new regional formations contesting the state polls in a pre-poll alliance, have pegged their fight on the strident protest in December 2019 against the Narendra Modi government’s decision to violate the Assam Accord by including a major part of the state within the purview of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA). As per the CAA, Hindu Bangladeshis (along with some other non-Muslim groups) arriving in the border state (and elsewhere) till December 2014 can become legal citizens of India. The Modi government has thus extended the citizenship cut-off date meant for all foreigners in the state from March 1971 to December 2014 for non-Muslims.

Party flags in Sivasagar district's Siripuria village. Photo: Sangeeta Barooah Pisharoty

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Recognition of that fact triggered a strong bout of protests in the state in December 2019. Activist Akhil Gogoi has been in jail since then under the draconian Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act.

Gogoi, in custody for over a year now, is contesting the state polls from Sivasagar as the candidate for his party, Raijor Dal or people’s party. Phukan is sympathetic towards Gogoi’s long incarceration “for raising his voice for our welfare”.

“I feel the government has done wrong by putting him behind bars; he has always spoken for us. I am saying this not because he belongs to my community (Ahom) but I have seen him raising his voice for the poor in general, for the farmers,” says Phukan.

But will he vote for him?

Phukan smiles and expresses his dilemma. “This is traditionally a Congress seat; I am 50-years-old, have always voted for Congress, to Pranab Gogoi. If I have to listen to my mind, I may have to vote for someone who may finally not win the seat,” he says. Some people in his village, dependent on farming, have tilted towards the BJP because they have been receiving some monetary benefits from the government. “My wife has got too. Now they all are wondering if this government goes, will they get that money or not as these are not permanent schemes like MGNREGA. But I have no such confusion; I can’t run on temporary arrangements like that,” he says.

What he means is ensuring employment for his four sons. “My youngest is a taekwondo player, just returned from Madhya Pradesh after taking part in an event there. I want a job for him in the state government in sports quota. Congress has promised five lakh jobs,” he highlights. His eldest son has already registered himself in a website set up by the Congress for the purpose.

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His neighbour, Naren Phukan, also a farmer, joins the conversation, “Modi too promised jobs; took votes, never delivered; why should I blindly trust Congress? This BJP government has given us some money at least which comes to use.” He is in a moral dilemma as well, “I feel for Akhil, amarei lora (our child only); dukhiar lora (a poor man’s son); government has done injustice to him but there are practical matters too. I am in two minds now.”

Haren Phukan’s family has 17 votes. As indicated by him, Congress’ strike rate at the Sivasagar constituency has been high; it has won the seat five times since 1978. Its ally, the CPI, had won it three times. CPI candidate Jiten Borpatra Gohain, in the 2016 elections, however, polled only 1.92% of the votes and stood fourth in the tally.

Farmers' rights activist Akhil Gogoi. Photo: Vikramjit Kakati/Wikipedia Commons

In the 2016 elections, the Phukan family voted for Congress candidate Pranab Gogoi. In a closely contested election, Gogoi could defeat the BJP candidate Surabhi Rajkonwar only by a few hundred votes. Gogoi had been winning that seat since 2001. However, it has been a year since the seat has been vacant after Gogoi’s demise, leading voters to wonder who the Congress’s nominee would be. While three of Pranab Gogoi’s sons had expressed willingness to contest the polls, there were a couple of other candidates as well who had sought the party’s ticket. Finally, Congress zeroed in on Youth Congress leader Subhamitra Gogoi.

Surabhi Rajkonwar, a formidable candidate, is once again the BJP's nominee and is hopeful of pulling off a win this time against a newcomer. However, Congress’s promise of five lakh jobs and the BJP’s support for the CAA may make it a close contest once more. In such a scenario, akin to the 2016 elections, in the March 27 polling as well, a difference of a few hundred votes may likely decide the winner between the Congress and the BJP in Sivasagar.

Conversations with voters across the constituency make it somewhat clear that, aside from the voters of the constituency, far more are familiar with Rajkonwar in public life than that of the first-time candidate from the Congress, Subhamitra, the ruling party has a ready advantage in two other fronts. One, that it has succeeded in keeping not only a large chunk of its 2016 voters even after a loss but has also perhaps added to it through Sarbananda Sonowal’s multiple cash transfer provisions and ensuring that they directly reach their jan dhan bank accounts. A large number of voters in the constituency are now hooked to these cash benefits and want them to continue.

Secondly, the Akhil factor may end up eroding Congress’ votes. Take this scenario into account. A little ahead of Haren Phukan’s house, in ward no 3 of Siripuria panchayat, villagers Abhijit Bora, Pranab Phukan, Rajani Gogoi among a few others have decided to vote in favour of Akhil Gogoi. Abhijit claims, “The voters in three wards of our village panchayat have decided in his favour but we have ten wards; there are not decided; some are on BJP side, some Congress. But we will ensure that about 3,000 votes from our village will go to Akhil.”

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They are traditional Congress voters which essentially mean if the trend continues, many votes would slide off the Congress’ account. These villagers are aware of it but hope that in the coming days, their neighbours who support the BJP would relent, like they have, in favour of Akhil.

However, in ward no 5 of Siripuria village, Rajani Gogoi, wife of a marginal farmer, told The Wire why she and most of the women voters of the village will go with the BJP. Married women like her get around Rs 830 per month in their account under the Orunudoi scheme and some of their daughters have begun getting Rs 100 to attend school. Some families who have children in Classes XI-XII get Rs 500 per month (state government’s scholarship scheme).

She doesn’t know under what schemes her family gets Rs 1,330 in total per month but is happy to support the BJP as it supplements the regular income of the family. “We never got so much cash before in our account. We got rice at a very low price from the Tarun Gogoi government which was good. We also got a cycle from the previous Congress government but I have now seen on TV that the girls in some areas are being given a Scooty. It may come to us too,” she says.

Though in the run-up to the assembly elections, the Congress had stated that it would not put up a candidate against Akhil Gogoi wherever he contests in solidarity with his protest against the CAA, it finally fielded a candidate from Sivasagar after Akhil announced his candidature from it.

Akhil, who had filed nomination papers from two constituencies going to polls in the first phase, however, withdrew from one, Mariani, leaving the field open for the Congress candidate and three-time MLA Rupjyoti Kurmi, to have a straight fight with the BJP opponent Ramani Tanti. This gesture of Gogoi, which is likely to prove helpful to Kurmi, has, however, annoyed a section of Raijor Dal supporters as the Congress didn’t show a matching gesture to Gogoi in Sivasagar. Meanwhile, the BJP candidate in Sivasagar, Rajknowar, reacting to Akhil Gogoi’s withdrawal of nomination papers from Mariani, didn’t lose the opportunity to allege that Gogoi and Congress were the two sides of the same coin – thus trying to ensure that the anti-CAA supporters among the 2016 voters of the BJP don’t desert the party for Gogoi.

However, it is likely that the division of votes between the three contestants would take place in several rural pockets of Sivasagar constituency, like it will in Siripuria on March 27. In the urban centres though, particularly in Sivasagar town, what comes across from chats with people on the street is that it will be a largely two-corner fight between the two national parties with BJP having an edge over the opposition Congress.

“You may see the first poll booth on entering Sivasagar from Jorhat district is that of Akhil Gogoi. But Raijor Dal is nowhere in the contest here. It is a straight fight between BJP and Congress. But yes, Akhil will take away a few Congress and BJP votes but to my mind, it may be more of Congress votes,” claims resident Nabin Baruah, a retired clerk from the local Public Works Department office.

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Baruah had voted for Congress’s Pranab Gogoi in 2016. “He is gone; this candidate is new,” he says. Baruah’s wife is now a beneficiary of the Orunudoi scheme. “Haat khoros (pocket money)”, he says smilingly. He is also conscious of the growing price rise, “Look at petrol price. We common people need some relief. The state government had lowered it a little bit in February, which means it is within its powers.”

Will price rise be a factor in the May 27 elections for voters of his contingency? “It could be. More and more people are talking about it. I have read in the Assamese papers also,” he said.

17th century Sufi saint Ajan Fakir's tomb by the Dikhow river in Saraguri village. Photo: Sangeeta Barooah Pisharoty

On B.G. Road in Sivasagar, a 28-year-old housewife Meena Baruah, an Orunudoi beneficiary, says, “I would have no problem with Akhil had he been from Sivasagar. I like the way he speaks. Bhoi nokore (doesn’t feel scared of power). But we want a local person to be our MLA. Otherwise, he was ideal for us."

Meena wants Rs 830 to continue coming, “but I also want a job. So I am in a dilemma. I have not registered in the Congress website, I will decide only next week.”

Further down from Siripuria, the Sivasagar constituency fades into Amguri where the BJP’s alliance partner, the AGP, trying to retain the seat, is also locked in a straight fight with the Congress. With voters’ concerns and preferences predisposed towards different poll dynamics than that of Sivasagar, only May 2 will decide whether AGP-BJP will be able to remain a winner there too.

Meanwhile, the Dikhow meanders, silently, and passes by a cluster of villages, mainly populated by Kaibartta community. Amidst them stands the resting place of the 17th-century Sufi saint, Ajan Fakir, whose name is often connected to the 16th century revered Vaishnava saint Sankardev to term Assam a land of religious tolerance and assimilation, Sankar-Ajan or dex.

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