New Delhi: Amidst intense speculation that Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar is once again exiting the opposition-led INDIA and returning to the BJP fold, the most deafening is Nitish’s own strategic silence. Over the last week, his persistent refusal to intervene and give any clarity on the matter, even as nearly all of mainstream media has been reporting about his possible exit from the INDIA bloc and his attempt to refashion his own state government, has led the most credible observers to believe that there can’t be so much smoke without a fire.
Quick recap
Nitish has a habit of showing scant respect to allies. In 2017, the RJD was in the dark when Nitish suddenly announced his decision to quit the Mahagathbandhan. Then when he left the BJP two years ago, the saffron party leaders, too, had no clue, until he announced his decision to again switch camps. Reports now suggest that even Lalu Prasad Yadav, with whom Nitish goes back a long time both as friend and foe, isn’t aware of any new move by Nitish.
Nitish’s own record of switching sides without any accountability towards his ideological inclinations has only cemented the impression of the Bihar chief minister leading the pack of “paltu rams” of Indian politics.
Yet, his long and shrewd stay at the crease in Patna has ensured that he remains the most indispensable political figure in Bihar’s complex politics. He has used his crucial hold over a significant section of non-dominant backward communities as his stratagem to command the state’s political status quo, as much as to surprise his allies and endear himself to his opponents.
Back to the future
In today’s competitive, almost bitter politics, Nitish is both an asset and a liability for any alliance partner.
He knows that without any ally, his independent political value is limited. But he also understands that the ally stands to gain the most, if Nitish lends his support to it. That puts him in the best bargaining position. Precisely because of such factors, both Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Bharatiya Janata Party, both of which share a hostile relationship with Nitish when he is not on their side, are almost always ready to take him back into their fold.
Over the last few years, ever since Nitish broke his partnership with the BJP (he has been among the oldest allies of the BJP) the saffron party hasn’t missed a day to attack his government. Allegations of corruption and misgovernance were hurled at him; he was accused by the BJP as promoting casteist politics in Bihar, even as it made multiple attempts to break Nitish’s Janata Dal (United). However, Nitish managed to fend off all such threats, as RJD, Left and the Congress held him in good stead with 120+ legislators in the assembly, compared to Janata Dal (United)’s 43.
The BJP, whose state leaders kept giving statements about a near impossibility of any future alliance with Nitish, is apparently willing to take him back again ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the saffron party could foresee its worst defeat in the state without the support of Nitish. This, despite Nitish’s poor record in showing loyalty and ability to switch sides again, and the saffron party’s own unofficial attempts to undercut Janata Dal (United) during 2020 assembly polls.
The season of opportunism
The season of opportunism doesn’t end there. It was Nitish who principally brought together regional parties and the Congress to form the INDIA bloc. He met Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee, Uddhav Thackeray, Akhilesh Yadav, all of whom were reluctant to have a national-level coalition with the Congress and convinced them to join hands to what he said was his primary goal – defeat the BJP and end the rule of authoritarianism. However, his goal took a backseat ever since Banerjee and Kejriwal proposed not his name but Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge as INDIA Bloc PM candidate – a proposal which Kharge refused outright, realising what was going on, in light of competing ambitions in the bloc.
Liability again?
Nitish could prove to be a liability again, if he breaks the trust of INDIA parties once again, making him perhaps the only old-school leader to not care about his political legacy, the foundation of which was built on principles of socialism and secularism. Haryana has been lumped with the title of having Aya Rams and Gaya Rams, with Bihar known for political finesse and maturity. Nitish’s conduct has cast a dark cloud over the state’s rich political tradition.
But to breach first principles will not be new for Nitish. His likely decision may go on to establish that the Bihar chief minister to keep his political career alive has solely relied on his crucial bargaining position, and nothing more. In contrast, RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, having been pushed to a corner with successive defeats that his party faced over the last two decades, has emerged as a sharp campaigner with strong shades of his father, Lalu Prasad’s touch and quick wit. He has also consistently attempted in his short political stint to consolidate and expand his party’s base beyond the Muslim-Yadav combination, and all this, despite the dogged opposition to the BJP’s Hindu majoritarian politics and ‘welfare’ measures.
State numbers, please
Multiple reports are now stating that Nitish will likely announce his decision to leave RJD and INDIA Bloc on Sunday and form a government with BJP’s Sushil Modi as his deputy. Tejashwi Yadav, in face of Nitish springing a surprise, is said to have initiated talks with the chief minister’s arch-rival Jitan Ram Manjhi whose party Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and its four MLAs are currently a part of BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. Currently, it is the RJD which is the single largest party in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, and the Mahagathbandhan minus JD(U) is just eight short of the majority mark. If, by beating all odds, Tejashwi manages to pool in the HAM legislators, he will still be in a position to have a majority government with the help of Congress and the Left parties.
However, Nitish’s exit will be the first real blow to the INDIA bloc, as it will significantly weaken the anti-BJP alliance in Bihar which has 40 Lok Sabha seats. But the INDIA parties may also take this as an opportunity to pivot the alliance towards a concrete ideological direction that takes principled stances against BJP with clarity. Also, the BJP would technically have been able to fight more seats in Bihar with JD(U) on the other side. Now, there is a crowd of parties in Bihar that will have to share the 40 seats.
INDIA constituents will need a lot of nerve and muscle to ideologically huddle together. An ideologically-charged narrative may help the anti-BJP forces make a better connection with the electorate, which has seen Nitish’s flip-flops for now too long to forgive and forget wilfully.
