Baghpat: Through the thick winter fog, a group of villagers from Ahir Singhawali walk across the sugarcane field to the roof of a half-constructed brick building for an election meeting with Nawab Ahmad Hamid, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) candidate from Baghpat, one of the most prominent assembly constituencies going to the polls in the first phase.
This is the heart of farmland politics, in the Jat belt of Uttar Pradesh, the garh of former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh and his family. First elected to the assembly from neighbouring Chhaprauli he went on to represent the Baghpat Lok Sabha constituency for three terms. His son Ajit Singh won this seat seven times, and his grandson Jayant Chaudhary, the current leader of the RLD, lost the last Lok Sabha elections.
By 10 am, about 40 people had assembled, all men, half of them Yadavs, the other half Muslims. Among the panel of speakers facing the audience, the three-time village pradhan (head), Ram Pal Singh Yadav, a few village elders from both communities, and a woman, former district president of the Samajwadi Party, Rekha Yadav.
Enveloped by a thick fog, an early morning election meeting in Singhawali, Baghpat. Villagers gather to hear the RLD candidate, Ahmad Hamid. Photo: Radhika Bordia
In each speech, the BJP’s callousness in handling the farmers’ agitation and rising unemployment failure is raised. “This government killed farmers, we will not forget it,” says Ram Pal Singh Yadav. Another speaker, referring to the more than 300 police encounters under the Adityanath government, asks, “What suraksha (protection) does the BJP speak of when our innocent men were shot dead or maimed by Adityanath’s police.” Rekha Yadav refers to Mamata Banerjee, “The sherni (lioness) in Bengal decimated the BJP, we must get rid of it from Uttar Pradesh.”
The most strident voice is that of Sunder Pal Singh Yadav, a teacher. Angrily, he pitches into the BJP, accusing it of playing the worst kind of divisive politics. Like thousands of teachers across the state, he has been waiting for this government to fill vacancies and pay proper salaries. He further says that no teacher in the state should vote for the BJP. The anger among the teaching community has been heightened by the death of more than 1,600 teachers who were put on panchayat poll duty during the second wave of COVID-19.
Ahmad Hamid’s father, Nawab Kaukub Hamid Khan, a five-term MLA from Baghpat, is invoked with affection and some reverence by all the speakers. Nawab’s father and grandfather, influential zamindars, played a role in settling several areas of Baghpat. Closely associated with the RLD, his father’s death in November 2018 left a political vacuum in Baghpat.
“Nawab sahib’s son will carry on his legacy and good work,” says the village pradhan, and adds, “but do not give anyone a chance this time to say the Yadavs did not vote for their Muslim brother from the RLD, it will let Akhilesh bhaiya down.”
Directed especially at a group of young men – all Yadavs – standing in a row at the back, it’s a comment that confirms the perception that in 2017, a considerable section of the Yadavs voted for the BJP. One of these young men leans across to whisper that he has learnt his lesson and that Yogi’s government has failed abysmally.
A Muslim elder gets up to recite some verses, “Kami agar phaasle mein aa jaaye, voh shaqs phir se mere raabtey mein aa jaaye (If distances diminish, the contact will be re-established),” before saying, “Muslims have been accused of gaddari (betrayal), but no Muslim will betray his country even if a Hindu does.”
His intention to emphasise the loyalty Muslims feel to the country is immediately misinterpreted. Two Yadav men erupt with, “How dare he accuse Hindus of gaddari?” They are instantly pacified, the Muslim man apologises and calm is restored – but not before it reveals the precarious nature of the partially restored social accord between communities.
Also read: ‘Cruel Yogi-Modi Raj’: As UP Polls Loom, Palpable Anger Against BJP in Aligarh
Caste dynamics
Ahmad Hamid, in his speech, sticks to local and state issues, addressing unemployment, the rise of petrol prices, and the rates at which the main local crop, sugarcane, is bought. He pursued his education from St. Joseph’s school and Aligarh Muslim University, and got a management degree from IIMT Ghaziabad. He has worked in the corporate sector for 15 years. “When my father fell sick, he told me that he saw our family as a bridge between communities, one that has served this land for a hundred years. I felt compelled to continue that work,” he says.
As the crowd disperses, several members come up to ensure their voices are heard, all of them vigorously pledge their support to the RLD-SP alliance. For them, a vote for the RLD is a step towards Akhilesh coming to power. In a constituency of about 315,000 voters, the Yadavs number around 25,000, with the majority comprising Muslims at about 80,000-90,000 followed by Jats at around 45,000. These are rough estimates but are cited across the local political spectrum.
In 2017, of the five assembly constituencies falling under the Baghpat Lok Sabha seat, four were won by Jats, three for the BJP and one for the RLD. But the political landscape has changed since the farmers’ agitation, and the degree to which the Jats will support the alliance will strongly impact the result.
We stand by a pond at a roadside shrine in the heart of Jat territory. Across the water body lies Hisawada village, the home of Satya Pal Malik, currently governor of Meghalaya. Malik’s statements in support of the farmers’ agitation and his criticism of the Central Vista departed from the party line but the BJP has not acted against him, perhaps fearing the impact on the Jat vote.
At the shrine, another farmer, Sumit Yadav, is huddled in a discussion with three others – Arvind, a Yadav; Sitaram, a Bahmin and Mangeram Swami, who is from the Bairagi (OBC) community. They run me through a typical UP poll analysis, breaking down the caste arithmetic of villages in this part of Baghpat. The Jatavs, they say, will continue to vote for Mayawati, “Never underestimate the BSP in western Uttar Pradesh. The Baniyas in town will vote for the BJP, the Gujjars will split in a big way and the Thakurs behave like Yogi’s extended family.”
Sumit adds, “The Yadavs across Western Uttar Pradesh will vote for the SP-RLD but it’s a tight battle here in Baghpat. The decisive factor will not be us but the Jats.” As if on cue, Ranbir Malik, a Jat farmer with a large landholding in Hisawada, arrives at the shrine on his motorcycle, “It is rubbish to say the Jats are angry with the BJP. Modi, in the country and Yogi in UP, have made it safe for Hindu women.” The issue of safety and crime comes up in almost every conversation. Before driving off, Malik concedes some Jats may have broken away from the BJP but calls them misguided and inconsequential.
A few minutes later, Mehak Singh arrives on his bike. Also a Malik Jat from Hisawada village, he is Satya Pal Malik’s first cousin. “I’m from a family which voted for the BJP for 20 years, even before there was any sign of them in western Uttar Pradesh. But no longer.” He says he was at the forefront of mobilising support for the farmers’ agitation in his village and then lists a series of grievances against the BJP, none of them connected with its communal thrust.
“The RLD is the only party for Jats, for farmers,” Mehak Singh adds and points to Mangeram, “These are the only people who will vote for the BJP, they just want the Rs 2,000 dole they are getting.”
As soon as he leaves, Mangeram, who has remained quiet in the presence of the two Jats, speaks up to say the BJP looks after the “choti jaatis”. His Bairagi community is seen as an ‘atipichri’ or among the most backward of the OBC castes. The Bairagis have but a few homes in every village and number no more than 3,000 in the constituency, but Mangeram reflects the sentiments of several such smaller backward castes. For most of them, the Jats are a dominant, oppressive community.
The BJP and its Sangh affiliates have worked on such fault lines to consolidate their votes, which, at 3,000 a sub-caste, adds up. This BJP strategy is made easier in western UP in the absence of any smaller parties to claim the loyalty of these castes, on the lines of the Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party of the Rajbhars or the Nishad Party which have built up a presence elsewhere in the state.
Also read: A New Alliance Behaviour Is Emerging With the Anti-BJP League of the Opposition
The non-dominant OBC castes, even when they are present in large numbers, are often left out of the calculations. The Kashyaps, for instance, number over 30,000 in Baghpat and have a significant voting presence in 58 constituencies of western Uttar Pradesh.
Purnima Kashyap runs a small vegetable shop in Hamidabad, a Mohalla in the heart of Baghpat. She says most of the women in her colony will vote for the BJP for one key reason, they feel more secure under Adityanath’s rule. “We have daughters who walk back alone from school, college or their coaching centre, they can do so without fear of being lured away by men.” Asked to mention any cases of women who were “lured away”, Jyoti says, “TThere haven’t been any cases in our mohalla, thank goodness, but it happens all the time.”
Staunch BJP supporters, Jyoti and Purnima Kashyap, from Hamidabad, Baghpat. Photo: Radhika Bordia
The BJP’s effective hold
Ironically, Hamidabad was founded by Ahmad’s grandfather who had donated land from his own estate to settle Baghpat’s more marginalised communities. Sitaram Kashyap, now in his early 70s, says he’s familiar with the history of his mohalla, “Nawab Kakub’s family have served Baghpat well but people don’t care to remember that anymore.” He is among the few here who says he regrets voting for the BJP, “Look at our own boys, they are studying now but are not going to get any jobs. This government has been a disaster in every respect. They have also reneged on the promise of giving the Kashyaps SC status.”
Pointing to the man standing next to him, Raju Kashyap, a daily wage labourer, Sitaram says, “Many in my community, like Raju, will vote for the BJP even though the party has done nothing for them.” He says part of the reason for the BJP’s effective hold is the number of Kashyap samaj sabhas the party has organised in the run-up to the elections. “The BJP’s agenda is to constantly poison our people, turn them against Muslims. Moreover, the RLD is seen as a Jat party.”
Also read: UP Polls: Students, Political Parties Take On BJP With Puns, Hashtags, Memes and Spoofs
The BJP’s strategy of playing to community sentiments and strengthening caste icons can occasionally backfire. The Gujjars are the other large landowning community in this constituency, numbering close to 40,000. In 2012, Hamid’s father was defeated by the BSP’s Gujjar candidate Hemlata Chaudhary. The current Gujjar anger with the BJP relates to the identity of the 9th century ruler Mihir Bhoj whom the Gujjars see as their own. They have been accusing the BJP, and Adityanath in particular, of siding with the Rajputs in removing the word “Gurjar” while referring to the King.
Against this backdrop of caste hierarchies and ancient feuds, Hamid faces another challenge, from the WhatsApp spin factory that often espouses the BJP’s interests. While communal tension has lessened a little in this region in the aftermath of the farmers’ agitation and the coming together of the RLD and the SP, it is still palpable and attempts to stoke it are a central plank of the BJP campaign.
“With the day of polling around the corner, the more the BJP senses that the Jats are rallying around the RLD, the more it pushes its communal agenda,” says Ajay Rana, a Jat farmer from Doghat village.
Recently a fake message was put out on Facebook, supposedly from the handle of Jayant Singh, an RLD leader. It stated that he was opposing Hamid’s candidature as Muslims had been “oppressors of the Jats” in the past. Jayant Singh had to repeatedly clarify this was fake news, circulated in all probability by the BJP’s IT cell. Another message being circulated on WhatsApp claims to be a “Warning to Jats” alerting them to the ‘fact’ that if they vote for the BJP, 21 Jats will become MLAs but if they vote SP-RLD only three Jats and 16 Muslims will be sent to the Assembly.
The BJP candidate Yogesh Dhama’s confidence seems to feed off such attacks on Hamid. We meet him in the Gujjar villages bordering Ghaziabad. Waiving off the perceived anger among the Gujjars or the Jats, he says the Rajputs, a sizeable community here, and all other OBC communities are firmly with him. He also lists the Agarwal families and Jains as communities who will vote for him.
BJP candidate Yogesh Dhama. Photo: Radhika Bordia
This emphasis on counting communities to the last vote is crucial. The tall arched gate to Basaud proclaims that this is a ‘Kranti Gram’ or a village of martyrs, named after those who were hanged by the British after the 1857 mutiny. Nearby, a group of young men are in the midst of their physical training. They hope to be selected for the army and each one of them expresses acute anger against the BJP government for not carrying out fresh recruitments. “It’s been three years. They say it’s because of COVID-19 but if you can have elections during COVID-19, why can’t you keep the other stuff going?” asks Samir Tyagi.
These men are united in the issues that affect them but they are divided by the parties they will back. Their political preferences are not dictated by their needs, but by their last names. Samir, like his fellow Tyagis, will vote for the BJP. Adnan Ali says all the Muslims will vote for the RLD as will Rakesh Yadav and Suresh Rana, a Jat, while Amit Sharma says he will vote for the BJP. Ask them about the result and they say it will be a “barabar ki takkar”.
