Hyderabad: The Telugu Desam Party-led National Democratic Alliance in Andhra Pradesh has registered a landslide victory, winning 164 out of 175 seats in the Andhra Pradesh legislative assembly. While TDP romped home with 135 seats, its alliance partners Jana Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured 21 and eight seats respectively.
The tally of the ruling YSR Congress, headed by chief minister Jagan Mohan Reddy, came from 151 seats it had bagged in the 2019 elections to a mere 11 seats. The magnitude of the TDP-Jana Sena-BJP alliance meant Reddy would not be even in the position to get opposition status in the assembly.
All the parties in the fray reflected the same performance in Lok Sabha elections as well. While TDP secured 16 seats, its alliance partners Jana Sena and BJP secured two and three seats respectively. The YSR Congress bagged four seats.
Expressing shock at the results, an emotionally charged Jagan wondered at his maiden media conference in the last five years where the affection shown by beneficiaries of welfare programmes initiated by his government vanished.
He said he did not imagine this kind of result. He said he lost the election despite doing a lot for people.
Jagan also said god alone knew what went wrong and expressed his helplessness at the juncture. “I will rise up from here and take to struggles which is nothing new to me. I am ready for any challenge.”
Jana Sena chief Pawan Kalyan in his address to party supporters said he was at a loss for words. The results reflected the people’s ambition for change. This was not the time for taking revenge on political rivals, he added.
Telugu Desam Party president N. Chandrababu Naidu participated in a cake-cutting celebration at the Jana Sena office. He left for Delhi to take part in the NDA meeting on Wednesday called by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other BJP bigwigs. His presence at the NDA meeting, more or less, end speculation about his speculation in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). But, the exit of Naidu from NDA during his previous term is a grim reminder of his blow-hot, blow-cold relationship with the BJP in the past. He decided to leave NDA protesting against the failure of the Centre to concede special category status to residuary Andhra Pradesh in the wake of the bifurcation of the erstwhile State.
The TDP and Jana Sena raced to lead in no time as soon as counting of votes began on Tuesday morning even as the ruling YSR Congress struggled to take off. As the trend continued, 23 out of 25 ministers in chief minister Jaganmohan Reddy’s Cabinet and Speaker Tammineni Sitaram trailed behind their TDP rivals.
It was obvious after a while that Jagan was set to exit and pave the way for Naidu to take the former’s seat in power again. Naidu was by then well on his way to winning his seventh Assembly election and with it becoming chief minister for the fourth time. Jagan conceded defeat later and sent his resignation letter to governor S. Abdul Nazeer.
A look at the reasons for the debacle of the YSR Congress shows that the welfare schemes of the party on which it banked heavily did not work with voters. The tall claims of the government that a sum of over Rs 2.75 lakh crore was spent on the welfare of the poor by direct benefit transfer (DBT) did not convince the public. Also, the ‘volunteer system’, initiated by the Jagan Reddy government, to take welfare to the doorsteps of people without having to go around government offices was ignored by people. The system had become hugely controversial as it was perceived as a parallel mechanism to village secretariats.
On the flip side, the YSR Congress is to blame itself for the defeat due to the lack of investments and development in the state. The three-capital model proposed by the government at Amaravati, Kurnool and Visakhapatnam representing the three regions of the state did not go down well with people. Finally, the state ended up without a clear capital. It was too late by the time he announced that he would run the government from Visakhapatnam in his second term.
The failure of the government to complete the Polavaram project citing faults in design and its firm resolve to implement the Andhra Pradesh Land Titling Act amidst serious concerns of the public on security for their lands were cited as reasons for YSR Congress’ defeat.
Naidu tore up land revenue records at public rallies, symbolically rejecting the government’s authority over private lands. All the Opposition parties highlighted that the Act would become another Dharani portal of the Telangana government lacking transparency and protection of land rights.
The TDP also promised ‘Super Six’ guarantees of Rs 4,000 pension per month, Rs 15,000 assistance to every school-going child, three free cooking gas cylinders for every household per annum, unemployment allowance of Rs 3,000 per month, free bus ride to women and Rs 1,500 per month to all women from 18 to 59 years. They seemed to steal a march over YSR Congress promises.
Jagan in the YSR Congress manifesto promised to continue all the welfare schemes of the past five years. He hiked social security pensions marginally from Rs 3,000 to 3,500 per month and assistance to school-going children from Rs15,000 to 17,000.
The arrest of Naidu and his imprisonment in Rajahmundry Central Jail for nearly 50 days in an alleged scam of skill development programme during his chief ministership from 2014 to 2019 earned him a lot of public sympathy, particularly women who took to road in Guntur.
A political analyst Pentapati Pulla Rao told The Wire that what worked in the victory of TDP and its allies was their unity. The public made it clear that freebies were not enough. Naidu promoted unity among allies by compromising on seats sought to be contested by TDP. The TDP gave 21 Assembly seats to the Jana Sena and 10 to BJP.
The TDP also conceded six parliament seats to BJP and two to Jana Sena. Pulla Rao highlighted that it was the severe oppression of Opposition parties by Prime Minister Modi which promoted their unity at the national level.
Another analyst Telakapalli Ravi said the fact that Jagan replaced 70 incumbent MLAs was a clear indication about the prospects of his party’s defeat. “Otherwise, why will any party change so many MLAs? It was a desperate attempt to save a sinking boat.”
Ravi also said TDP was expected to fight because of serious anti-government feelings among the masses. Also, the vengeance politics of Jagan to book Naidu in a criminal case and send him to jail and targeted violence by YSR Congress against TDP leaders and cadre spelt danger to the party. Jagan distanced himself from government employees by not looking into many of their demands.
Naidu, however, breathed life into the BJP by forging an alliance. It drastically changed the scenario at the national level. If he and BRS president K. Chandrasekhar had gone with the INDIA bloc, it would have made a vast difference to the results.
Pawan Kalyan was a game changer by consolidating the Kapu vote bank, Ravi added. YSR Congress replaced 70 out of its 153 incumbent MLAs with the experience of Bharat Rashtra Samiti in Telangana Assembly elections. It was believed that the BRS lost polls because of its reluctance to change its MLAs after they had become unpopular.
On the other hand, the TDP retained all its 23 MLAs. The TDP also fielded runners-up on its behalf in 50 seats contested by the party in the last Assembly elections.
The TDP swept polls in Guntur, Krishna, Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Kurnool and Nellore districts. Together with its ally Jana Sena, the party also made a clean sweep in East and West Godavari districts where the Kapu community held considerable sway. Pawan Kalyan who heads Jana Sena represents the community. The TDP also enjoyed the blessings of the Kamma community represented by Naidu.
