Kolkata: Panchayat elections have become a weathervane for the political scenario in West Bengal ever since the 2008 result presaged a change of guard at the state level.
In the 2018 panchayat election, the state saw unbridled violence, perpetrated mainly by members of the ruling Trinamool Congress. At a campaign rally, senior Left leader Biswanath Karak and nine-time MP Ram Chandra Dom were mercilessly beaten by people who were widely seen as having been sheltered by the ruling party. Opposition parties were largely not allowed to campaign and, more importantly, could not submit candidates’ nomination papers.
Trinamool Congress candidates won 30,000 seats in the Gram Panchayats, uncontested. That people were unhappy with this conduct was reflected in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, when out of 42 seats in West Bengal, the BJP won 18. The TMC lost 12 seats it had won in the 2014 polls to the saffron party.
The upcoming rural polls will be of particular significance, once again. This time, Trinamool is facing one of its most severe crises with allegations of corruption coming to the fore and protests breaking out across the state.
The 2023 state panchayat election is due in the months of March-April 2023. Recently, chief minister Mamata Banerjee said that the dates for the election may be announced at any time. On October 20, the State Election Commission (SEC) released the draft list of the delimitation and reservation of seats in the three-tier panchayats.
Sources have said that the chief minister and top bureaucrats want to avoid the summer. In that case, panchayat elections may happen in the coming winter. Speculation sped up after the release of the draft delimitation agenda by the SEC. The work of delimitation and seats reservation may be completed in November, paving the way for the SEC to finish other preparatory tasks.
From 2018 to 2022, the political scenario of West Bengal has changed dramatically. In the 2018 panchayat election, the BJP was fortified by a significant portion of Left votes. That was, in fact, the first time that West Bengal witnessed a battle between just the BJP and TMC. In north Bengal, the Junglemahal districts of Purulia, Bankura, and Jhargram, and the south Bengal districts of Paschim Medinipur and Nadia, the BJP won a handful of seats at the Gram Panchayat level. Many people in these regions belong to the Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and the Other Backward Classes categories.
The CPI(M) had always claimed that these voters are their natural allies. But since 2011, this section of the population has drifted away from the Left. In fact, the CPI(M) and Left Front partners have been losing ground within the SC, ST, OBC and tea garden workers since the late 1990s, which created a void.
To fill this political vacuum, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh have been setting up schools for disadvantaged communities since 1998.
In 2016, when I went to Cooch Behar district to cover the pre-election scenario ahead of the Lok Sabha by-elections, I found the area dotted with Hanuman temples, where every evening, the Hanuman Chalisa was chanted. Married women from tribes like Rava, Mech, and Totos wore the sankha (white conch shell bangles worn by married women in certain parts of Bengal) and vermillion. All of this appeared very unusual to me as tribal people do not participate in idol worship, nor do they wear the sankha and vermillion as part of their customs.
These signs of saffronisation were reflected in the by-election results. The BJP came second and got 28.32% of the votes, which is 11.98% higher than what it managed in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. The Left Front candidate lost 26.49% from its tally in the previous election.
In West Bengal, this was the first sign that Left voters were drifting towards BJP.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, BJP won all seven seats in north Bengal, thanks largely to the efforts of the RSS. On October 10, 2022, in an article in The Indian Express, BJP Rajya Sabha MP Rakesh Sinha, wrote:
“The RSS’s sense of purpose has led to the organisation being accepted among the working class, slum dwellers, women and tribals, traditionally the left’s domain. This was acknowledged by the CPI(M) in its ‘Organisational and Political Report, 2008’. The report stated that “apart from RSS front organisations, like the BMS, ABVP and VHP, many other front organisations (like the Seva Bharti, Vidya Bharti and Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram) are working systematically to penetrate new sections of people in new areas”.”
Before RSS’s annual meeting in Prayagraj, from October 15 to 18, the Purba Khetro Sanghachalak of West Bengal, Ajay Nandy, told reporters that the branches of RSS have increased their presence by 25% in the state. However, BJP’s organisational weakness has also increased. There are 100,000 election booths in West Bengal. The state leadership of BJP has confessed that they have no booth committee in 35% of booth areas, and that their presence in another 10-15% of booth areas has weakened due to various organisational problems.
Thus, filling these blanks before the panchayat election is going to be an uphill battle.
On the other hand, CPI(M) has been gaining ground slightly. After the 2021 assembly election, CPI(M) has been able to outdo BJP’s tally in various by-elections and local body elections. The party has attracted more people in rallies and meetings across the state, courtesy of their student and youth wings. It is these two wings which are currently out on the streets, protesting against the School Service Commission scam.
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However, it is only a section of the party’s state leadership that is visible on television and social media.
Additionally, this is the first time after Independence that Left parties have no representation in the West Bengal assembly. The party is now facing a crisis in leadership. A CPI(M) state committee member had earlier said, “Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee was the last of the Mohicans.” It is easy to see how, after the former chief minister’s departure from active politics due to severe illness, the party has had no visionary or crowd-pulling leader.
There is no sign of the party filling this void in the near future and for now, has to depend on its young turks. However, this is not a safe bet in electoral politics.
TMC, the ruling party, is also facing a sea of troubles. The School Service Commission scam has created a public perception that the party is corrupt. Top leaders like former education minister Partha Chattopadhay are in jail for their involvement in the scam. Anubrata Mandal, a leader who is very close to the chief minister, is also in jail, accused of being involved in a cattle smuggling case.
Word is that there are other top leaders who might be on the Central Bureau of Investigation and Enforcement Directorate’s radar. Besides this, the TMC government is facing a shortage of funds to run various welfare schemes. The Union government has stopped fund allocation for various central schemes due to illegalities in procedures. This has increased the hurdles for the state government.
In this context, the TMC leadership is desperately looking for a way to conduct the upcoming panchayat election peacefully. But that is a very difficult task.
Having taken lessons from the 2018 panchayat election, the leadership had given strict directives to the rank and file before the 2021 state municipal elections, asking them not to be violent. But the directives were ignored by workers in various districts, for many of whom a seat in a local administrative body or in the three-tier panchayat means money and power.
Also, according to sources, the draft of delimitation and seat reservation done by the State Election Commission shows that seats are increasing by around 14,096 in all three tiers of the panchayat. It remains to be seen if the threat of violence increases with such an increase. Mamata Banerjee, in her present situation, can hardly afford further controversy.
Will TMC, with its dole politics, be able to retain its stranglehold on rural Bengal? Or will BJP will be able to stem its own decline and once again assert itself as the main opposition to the TMC? The Left parties, especially bolstered by the CPI(M)’s youth brigade, will leave no stones unturned to claw back to political relevance in the state either.
Biswajit Bhattacharya is a senior journalist based in Kolkata.
