The ruling National Democratic Alliance in Bihar is as nervous as the opposition, if not more, regarding the impact of the Election Commission of India’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) drive launched on June 25, which incidentally coincided with 50 years of the Emergency.

The president of the Rashtriya Lok Morcha, Upendra Kushwaha, who had served as Union minister between 2014-2018, on July 4, openly expressed concern over the short timing given to the electorate for this purpose. He told the media that the people in the rural hinterland were worried as they did not have the required documents. 

Though it was the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which nominated him to the Rajya Sabha in July last year, following his defeat in Lok Sabha election from Karakat seat a month earlier, Kushwaha also expressed his reservation over Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh general secretary Dattatreye Hosabale’s statement seeking removal of ‘Socialist’ and ‘Secular’ from Constitution.

NDA’s Apprehension

While the leaders of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress and Communist Party of India Marxist-Lenninst (Liberation) are vociferously opposing this move of the poll-panel, the rank and file of the NDA are sulking in private. What they fear most is that at the end they may be the losers in this game. But the tragedy is that they can not speak out against the EC’s move.

While most NDA leaders from Bihar have hailed this decision in public, they apprehend that a big chunk of people who may not be able to provide the required documents in such a short time to prove their citizenship are their own voters – or at least those on whom they are pinning their hope.

If it is indeed a plan to introduce the National Register of Citizens (NRC), as the opposition parties are alleging, then it would create another problem. They have the example of Assam where after a similar exercise, a majority of those who could not prove their citizenship were Bengali Hindus, Assamese Hindus and Gurkhas.

Unlike Assam, it would be very difficult in Bihar to bail out the non-Muslim ‘illegal’ migrants and that too before the Assembly election which is due in November.

According to the 2023 Caste Survey, Bihar has 19.65% members from the Scheduled Castes, 1.68% from Scheduled Tribes, and 36.01% from Extremely Backward Castes communities. Economically, socially and educationally, their condition is dire. Both the NDA and the grand alliance are eyeing this chunk of votes that account for over 57% of the electorate.

The condition of Other Backward Castes, who form 26.1% of population, is slightly better. The Hindu upper castes (10.6%) are relatively well placed. It is on them that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rely heavily, though it gets votes from other sections of the society too.

Community-wise the state has 17.7% Muslims and 82% Hindus.

Though votes from SC, ST and EBC communities are still up for grabs, the general perception is that the EC’s SIR move has single handedly alienated these voters from the NDA, if not directly pushed them towards the grand alliance.

Though the leader of opposition in Bihar Assembly Tejashwi Prasad Yadav has repeatedly said that there is a design to dis-enfranchise his voters, the truth is that the top brass of at least two Dalit parties, Lok Janshakti Party and Hindustani Awam Morcha are also worried.

At the same time, it would be wrong to say that only grand alliance constituents have the monopoly over the EBCs and the Dalit community as Janata Dal (United) too has been getting a substantial number of votes from these communities.

Changed scenario

In the Lok Sabha election held last year, the NDA won five out of six SC reserved seats in Bihar and a good number of backward castes MPs got elected on JDU tickets.

Of 19.65% Dalits, 5.31% are Dusadh, the castes to which LJP leader Chirag Paswan belongs, while there are about 3% Musahars, the castes of his ministerial colleague, Jitan Ram Manjhi of the Hindustani Awam Morcha. There are in all 22 Dalit castes in Bihar.

Though the Election Commission’s motive may be to identify the possible Bangladeshi Muslim infiltrators, it is the weakest section of the society cutting across community lines who are bearing the brunt.

While a large number of them have Aadhar, MNREGA and ration cards, they lack the other documents sought in the SIR. These documents are impossible to obtain in such a brief period.

Besides, a large number of working-class people live far away from their home. Lakhs of seasonal farm labourers from Bihar had left for Haryana, Punjab and even west Uttar Pradesh only a month ago. So, it is nearly impossible for them to rush back to their villages to get the paperwork done.

The biggest problem is what will be the fate of those who could not fulfil the demands of the EC? Will they be just not allowed to vote, or will they be denied all the benefits they are getting from the government, put in the detention camps and deported?

More importantly, to which country will they be deported to? In that case they will have to prove that they are Hindus who faced discrimination in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan, so they have illegally entered India and have taken shelter in Bihar.

Though the picture is not yet clear, innumerable questions are haunting the common masses cutting across all the social and community lines. Many of those who have voted for the NDA till the 2024 Lok Sabha election are now lending their ears towards the charges levelled by opposition parties.

It will also be a challenge for BJP’s grassroots-level workers to back the EC’s decision, however unpopular it may be. They have been asked by the party leadership to cooperate with the Booth Level Officers. The more they stand behind the poll panel, the higher is the chance of losing the goodwill of their own supporters.

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