Bihar’s assembly elections are seven months away, slated for November 2025. Yet the BJP had sounded the bugle by referencing Bihar in the recent Union budget. This early move underscores a high-stakes contest shaped by political realignments, dignity-centric legacies and growing demands for development, transparency and individual aspirations.

A shifting NDA and the emergence of BJP dominance

A key development since the last state election cycle has been the changed power equation within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). While the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), led by Nitish Kumar, was once the senior partner in Bihar’s NDA bloc, the BJP has progressively gained the upper hand.

Two interlinked factors have shaped this dynamic. Nitish’s political flip-flops – initially distancing himself from the NDA, returning to it and then recalibrating alliances multiple times – eroded the JD(U)’s image as a stable anchor.

Although Nitish remains a significant figure, the BJP’s ability to centralise resources and direct the alliance narrative has substantially reduced JD(U)’s clout: this may well be the eight-time chief minister’s last election before he fades away into irrelevance.

The BJP has strategically cultivated non-dominant other backward classes (OBCs) and non-dominant Dalit communities – historically the JD(U)’s power base – while maintaining its hold over the upper castes. In so doing, it continues to broaden its social coalition, aiming to draw support from segments that previously identified with Nitish’s welfare programs and local governance reforms.

The passing of Ram Vilas Paswan, the formidable chief of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and a beacon of hope for champions of social justice, has left the party at a crossroads as it has struggled to maintain a distinct identity.

Hindutva: the emerging electoral pivot

Despite the overt focus on infrastructure and welfare schemes, the underlying pivot for the BJP’s electoral strategy in Bihar is increasingly communal. Nearly two decades of intermittent rule alongside the JD(U) have allowed the BJP to carefully embed its Hindutva ethos within Bihar’s socio-political fabric. Now, for the first time, Hindutva is being foregrounded explicitly, transforming the electoral narrative.

This strategy has significant implications. Infrastructure development and welfare schemes, when combined with the appeal to Hindutva, create a unique political alchemy. Rather than promote an empowerment-based politics of rights and justice, it fosters relationships of reverence and benevolence between voters and political leaders.

The BJP’s deployment of Hindutva does not merely mobilise religious sentiments; it reshapes identities, forging communal unity that cuts across traditional caste-based divisions. This deliberate Hinduisation undermines older models of social justice politics championed by Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish, replacing them with a blend of communal pride and paternalistic governance.

Such a transformation poses a direct challenge to the INDIA bloc’s attempts to maintain solidarity among historically marginalised communities through dignity-based appeals.

The upcoming election may mark the ascendance of the BJP not merely through its organisational strength, but through its calculated communalisation of politics, altering Bihar’s political landscape profoundly.

Also read | Bihar Polls 2025: What Nitish Kumar Can Learn from Sheila Dikshit’s 2013 Election Debacle

Electoral arithmetic and the Mahagathbandhan’s prospects

Based on the 2020 assembly election results, the NDA (BJP, JD(U), LJP and Hindustani Awam Morcha) secured 43.17% of the vote, ahead of the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) (Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, Left and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP)) at 38.75%.

The current scenario indicates that the NDA could comfortably achieve a two-thirds majority in 2025 if this margin persists.

However, political realignments since 2020 – the VIP joining the MGB, the LJP aligning with the NDA and the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party merging into the JD(U) – complicate the picture.

Analysis by the Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies suggests that the MGB requires a 2.25% positive vote swing against the NDA to emerge victorious. Such a shift would reverse the standings to approximately 41% for the MGB and 40.92% for the NDA.

Critical to achieving this swing will be the strategic mobilisation of Muslim voters, who constitute 18% of Bihar’s electorate.

In the 2020 elections, the MGB garnered 76% of Muslim votes, while the NDA received merely 5%. Retaining and expanding this crucial vote base, along with attracting non-dominant Dalit and EBC communities, will be central to the MGB’s strategy.

Additionally, the impact of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party will be a significant factor to watch. Kishor’s individual-focused campaign could disrupt established voting patterns, potentially affecting both NDA and MGB bases. How much electoral traction Jan Suraaj gains and from whom it draws votes could significantly influence the election’s final outcome.

The INDIA bloc’s trials (and transformations?)

The RJD-led INDIA bloc also faces significant headwinds. Over the last decade, defections have tested its organisational resilience. Within the RJD itself, the ascent of Yadav’s son Tejashwi has highlighted generational change and, at times, intraparty tensions.

As de facto leader in Lalu Yadav’s absence from active campaigning, Tejashwi positions himself as a champion of dignity and social justice, a heritage the RJD has long nurtured. His task will be to navigate a politics that is no longer shaped solely by backward-versus-forward caste divisions. Religious and intra-caste fissures have emerged, and the RJD’s message must adapt to these new realities while preserving its core ideology of empowerment.

One must not forget that he lost the 2020 elections – which was the closest in the state’s recent electoral history – with a very slim margin. The vote share of both alliances was almost the same and over a dozen seats their victory margins were fewer than 1,000 votes, highlighting that small shifts in voter preference could have completely altered the outcome.

To stave off the BJP’s growing appeal, the RJD has aligned with the Congress under the broader INDIA banner. The objective: consolidate dominant OBC groups, keep minority votes intact and attract non-dominant Dalit and EBC communities away from the NDA.

However, the alliance will need more precise seat-sharing and constituency-level coordination than in the 2020 contest.

Also read: Why Bihar Will Not Go the Delhi Way

Individual aspirations and the rise of Kishor

A more recent contender, Kishor underscores the sense of flux in Bihar’s political scene. Known originally for his role in campaign strategies across India, Kishor has embarked on his own political project. Building on lessons from earlier coalition battles, he hopes to present an individual-focused message distinct from traditional caste-based appeals.

The founder of the Jan Suraaj movement and the party sees an opening created by the ageing of Lalu Yadav and Nitish, as well as the passing of Paswan. Should these older stalwarts exit active politics, he intends to position himself as a principal alternative – second only to the BJP in capacity or popularity, and possibly as a primary force if conditions align in his favour, although he may be grossly underestimating Tejashwi Yadav.

Further, instead of the collective or group-based rhetoric historically central to the Left, the RJD or the JD(U), Kishor frames his discourse around each voter’s personal choices. At rallies, he urges people to vote on “what you want”, eschewing overt appeals to group identity or broad social-justice movements.

Whether this approach resonates in a state still deeply shaped by collective action remains an open question. His appeals may well attract a section of the “upper castes”, chipping away at the BJP’s vote bank.

The contours of 2025: the enduring salience of dignity politics

As the electoral campaign intensifies, the following questions loom large: will the NDA’s expanded social coalition – upper castes, non-dominant OBCs and a considerable section of Dalits – remain intact or splinter due to localised pressures? Much rides on whether the JD(U) can reassert its base or whether the LJP can recalibrate its Dalit support.

Can the RJD-led INDIA bloc unify various OBC blocs, a section of Dalits, minority communities and historically marginalised sections into a cohesive electoral force? Tejashwi Yadav’s ability to mobilise beyond the Yadav community will be crucial, as will the Congress’s organisational synergy vis-a-vis mobilising Dalit support for the alliance at the constituency level. Notably, the Congress has appointed Dalit leader and two-time Kutumba MLA Rajesh Kumar as the president of its state unit.

Is there room for new entrants like Kishor to break through entrenched structures of caste and patronage politics with an ‘individual-focused’ or developmental appeal?

Bihar’s political history is replete with demands for “dignity” (samman). While Lalu Yadav championed “dignity, not development” (‘Vikas nahin, samman chahiye’), Nitish sought to blend dignity with development.

However, the tension between identity-based demands and claims for socio-economic advancement has never fully subsided. This continues to be the case even as an entire generation comes of age with little memory of anyone other than Nitish being (mostly) at the helm of affairs.

For 2025, the question is how the electorate will respond when confronted with the socio-economic realities shown by the caste census, widespread welfare schemes and rising aspirations for faster growth.

Any shift toward purely populist or purely development-based narratives must contend with the egalitarian traditions fostered by four decades of dignity politics. The years since the last election have amplified a complex interplay of dignity-based politics, demands for genuine economic transformation and the consolidation or fragmentation of powerful alliances.

The upcoming polls will serve as an important moment on how effectively regional parties have managed the legacies of Lalu Yadav, Nitish and Paswan, while simultaneously addressing younger generations’ mounting expectations.

Will the templates of social justice and deep-rooted alliances retain their sway or will we see a more handout- and welfare scheme-based government? That will be the defining story of this electoral contest.

Vignesh Karthik K.R. is a postdoctoral research fellow of Indian and Indonesian politics at KITLV-Leiden. Indrajit Roy is a professor of politics at the department of politics and international relations at the University of York.