Patna: The BJP’s victory in the Kurhani assembly seat of Muzaffarpur – which was held by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) earlier – should send alarm bells ringing for the Mahagathbandhan that the social bases of the constituent parties are fragmenting, analysts say.
This is the third by-poll to be held after Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav joined hands in August to form the “grand alliance” government. In the by-elections in Gopalganj and Mokama seats held last month, the BJP and the RJD retained their respective seats. This time around, the BJP has snatched the Kurhani assembly seat, where polling was held earlier this month.
BJP’s candidate Kedar Gupta got a total of 76,648 votes while Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] candidate Manoj Kushwaha got 73,016 votes. The margin of victory was 3,632 votes, but the defeat of the candidate of the Grand Alliance of seven parties, including JD(U), RJD, and Congress, at the hands of the BJP is a political embarrassment for the alliance.
While there are a number of factors which resulted in the BJP’s victory in Kurhani, there is sufficient evidence that the Mahagathbandhan’s social engineering may not be working as intended.
Describing this defeat as a “very serious sign”, the Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation [CPI (ML) L] said it was unexpected. The party’s secretary, Kunal, said that the Grand Alliance should avoid complacency and understand that the BJP is known for “conspiracies” and should not be taken lightly in any case.
BJP Bihar President Sanjay Jaiswal flashes the victory sign during celebrations of the party’s victory in Kurhani Assembly by-elections, in Patna, Friday, Dec. 9, 2022. Photo: PTI.
The BJP won the seat for the first time. Prior to this, Kurhani voters alternatively chose between the JD(U) and RJD.
However, prior to 2000, the Congress and Janata Party had been winning this seat alternatively. In the year 2000, the RJD won this seat for the first time. The JD (U) won it for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) consecutively in February 2005, October 2005, and in the 2010 Bihar assembly elections. In the 2015 assembly elections – when the JD(U) and RJD were in a coalition – the former’s Manoj Kushwaha won the ticket but lost the election to the BJP’s Kedar Gupta. It was the first victory for the BJP in this particular seat.
Also read: The Bypoll May Be at Gopalganj, But the Battle Is Between Tejashwi and Modi
In the 2020 assembly elections – when the BJP and JD(U) stitched an alliance, the BJP’s candidate, Gupta, won the ticket but lost the election to the RJD’s Anil Sahani by a slim margin of 712 votes. The election was necessitated after Sahani was disqualified due to a corruption case.
At the ground level, several issues have played a role in ensuring the BJP’s victory this time around.
Personal image of rival candidates
Unlike in the assembly elections, the personal image of candidates assumes significance in a by-poll, which appears to have worked in the favour of BJP’s Kedar Gupta. According to locals, he is unassuming and always accessible. This, they say, worked in his favour in the by-poll despite the fact that he lost the 2020 assembly elections.
Speaking to The Wire, Vijay Kumar, a resident of the Kurhani area, says “You send Kedar Gupta an invite for a birthday at your home, he will come. You send him a card for Chhathi Haar (a get-together organised on the sixth day after the birth of a child), he will come to your house. If he is not able to come that day, he will come the next day, but he will definitely come. He will not see what your social status is. If you go to meet him, he will meet you with kindness.”
“Because of this, even those who were angry with the BJP voted for him, due to his own image,” he says.
On the other hand, locals say Manoj Kushwaha has an unfavourable image. He wasn’t even aware until the last moment that he would be the candidate of the Grand Alliance. So, he was not very active in the constituency. According to local media reports, there was palpable anger against him among voters. Kushwaha admittmed as much, when during an election rally on November 15, he asked voters to forgive him if he had made any mistakes in the past.
Resentment among Tadi (toddy) tappers
The sale and consumption of toddy were outlawed in Bihar after the Nitish Kumar government – then in an alliance with the BJP – enacted the Excise and Prohibition Act of Bihar, which came into force in 2016.
In Bihar, the Pasi community (which includes Paswan, Manjhi, and Dusadh) has a population of about 20 lakh. They fall under the Scheduled Castes and the community is economically backward. Their livelihood is mainly dependent on toddy.
They are a sizeable community in the Kurhani assembly segment. Before the by-election, this correspondent spoke to voters in Kurhani and a good number of them had expressed displeasure over the police action against toddy tappers. Most of the Pasi voters had stated that they will not vote for the JD(U).
On November 29, the Pasi community held a demonstration in the state capital, Patna, demanding that toddy should be kept out of the purview of the Prohibition Act. Stones were pelted during the demonstration and the police responded with a lathi-charge.
Also read: ‘Mahapaapis’, Bootleggers and Liquor Tourism: Nitish Govt’s Trials With Its Own Prohibition Law
There is a belief that outlawing the sale of toddy through the Prohibition Act and the lathi-charge during the demonstration angered the Pasi community, which was reflected in their vote against the JD(U).
A local panchayat representative from a Backward Class community, with whom The Wire spoke, also echoed the same view – that banning toddy had an adverse impact on the Pasi community.
On the condition of anonymity, he said, “Taking advantage of the prohibition law, police harass the members of the Pasi community. Toddy is their only livelihood. Now, they are not allowed to sell it, so how will they survive? When they sell toddy, they are arrested by the police and their families face difficulties. Due to this, there is resentment against JD(U) among the Backward Classes of Dusadh, Paswan and Mushar. That is why they have voted for the BJP.”
BJP supporters celebrate after party’s victory in Kurhani assembly constituency by-election, in Patna, December 8, 2022. Photo: PTI.
Has the JD(U) vote shifted to the BJP?
Despite not having the support of the JD(U) in the fact that the BJP won the seat with a decent margin suggests that the party has not only retained its traditional vote bank but also added new voters to its kitty.
Another panchayat-level public representative told The Wire, “The BJP has got up to 90% of the upper caste votes. In panchayats where the upper caste population is high, BJP has taken a good lead there.”
It may be noted that apart from the BJP and JD(U), Mukesh Sahni’s party Vikassheel Insaan Party had also fielded its candidate. The Sahani community has traditionally voted for the BJP.
There is a perception that the Vikassheel Insaan Party secretively received support from the Grand Alliance, in he hope that it will divide the Sahani vote to damage the prospects of the BJP. Mukesh Sahani’s party bagged 10,000 votes. On the other hand, two independent candidates, who were also incidentally from the Sahani community, won 8,000 votes each.
Despite the strategies employed by the Grand Alliance, the BJP’s victory proves that it has been able to increase its voter base. But the moot question is where did the BJP get those extra votes from?
Patna-based senior journalist Deepak Misra says, “These voters are definitely of JD(U). They are upset with Nitish Kumar going with the RJD, so they have shifted to the BJP.”
He told The Wire, “Nitish Kumar has built his political career opposing Lalu Yadav. The anti-Lalu sentiment still works among Nitish Kumar’s core voters.”
There is another factor that had worked for the BJP. “Nitish Kumar had shared power with the BJP for around 15 years and the BJP has been pushing its political narrative in Nitish’s social base, which has had an impact. That is why it is very easy for Nitish Kumar’s core voters to shift towards the BJP,” political analyst Mahendra Suman told The Wire.
Deserted Janata Dal (United) office after BJP’s Kedar Gupta wins the Kurhani Assembly by-elections, in Patna, December 8, 2022. Photo: PTI.
Political message of the Kurhani election result
The Kurhani election result should set off alarm bells for the RJD-JD(U) alliance. It is for the second time that Nitish Kumar decided to dump the NDA and embraced the RJD. The BJP, for its part, has decided to go solo this time around.
Even though the BJP could not emerge victorious in the previous by-election in the Mokama seat, it was able to significantly increase its vote share – despite fighting the election alone.
Also read: Churn in OBC Politics of Hindi Belt As Nitish Kumar Emerges as the Undisputed Leader
Journalist Misra says, “The election results of all the three seats – Gopalganj, Mokama and Kurhani – show that the BJP is getting stronger at the JD(U)’s expense. The RJD really needs to think about how much it really stands to gain by being with the JD(U).”
“Election results say that Nitish Kumar’s voters are turning away from the JD(U). They are not going towards the RJD but are shifting to the BJP. It is time for the RJD to introspect what is the point of such an alliance if Nitish Kumar cannot get his votes to the RJD,” says Misra.
According to political analysts, other caste groups who had been voting for the RJD are also turning towards the BJP.
Mahendra Suman says, “Mahagathbandhan has JD(U), RJD and other parties which are known for working for extremely backward communities. So, it should have won the Kurhani seat with a margin of 20,000 to 30,000 votes, but it lost to the BJP. This means your (alliance partners’) social base is no longer intact.”
“Kurhani result also indicates that you cannot win an election merely focusing on Yadav-Muslim and Kurmi-Kushwaha votes. The Yadav vote is now scattered and Muslims are angry as they are not getting proper representation. So, it is time for Mahagathbandhan to seriously work on giving proper political representation to the different segments of society,” he says.
