The Bihar results are astounding, with National Democratic Alliance (NDA) sweeping an unprecedented 202 seats (83%) out of 243. Political analysts and correspondents covering the elections have proved to be utterly wrong. Most of them expected it to be a close fight.

Doubts emerged after the first round of voting on November 7, when the turnout percentage increased sharply compared to the previous assembly elections in 2020. In the second round of voting on November 11, the percentage increased further.

Everyone was left guessing what that implied. Was it anti-incumbency, as has been the case in the past? Was it that women voted in large numbers for the ruling alliance due to the offer of last-minute freebies? But it was possible that the young voted in large numbers on the issue of unemployment.

Exit polls came and predicted a clear lead for the ruling NDA. But not this stunning victory. The maximum projection was 167 (68.7%) and an average of 147 (60.5%). But then, exit polls in India have often been incorrect.

It is said that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the leading opposition party, was trounced because of its past record of ‘jungle raj’. And that chief minister Nitish Kumar got the NDA more votes due to his better performance in the last two decades (sushasan) and the sympathy vote due to his failing health.

But neither of these two reasons are adequate to explain the massive mandate. After all, the RJD was in power 20 years ago. And if this was a factor in voting choices, then it should have been a stronger factor in 2020 rather than now, which is five years farther away from the time of ‘jungle raj’.

Has Bihar done considerably better since 2020 than in the pre-2020 period? That is not in evidence. Yes, roads and the availability of electricity have improved. That has been going on for many years. But due to corruption, the quality of infrastructure is rather poor, with newly built or under-construction bridges collapsing, for instance. The poor condition of roads and bridges also leads to massive traffic jams.

So, is the marginal improvement in infrastructure enough for people to vote so massively for the ruling NDA?

In comparative terms, Bihar remains the poorest large state of India. Unemployment remains high and rising. Dependence on agriculture for employment continues, with little increase in work in industry and services. Due to high population density, farms are of small size and cannot generate enough income to support a family of five. So, poverty persists.

The educated are forced to migrate in large numbers to other states in search of employment.

Sixty-five percent of families depended on remittances, per a pre-COVID estimate. This impacts the social situation, with families split as the male members live elsewhere and return only on festivals or social occasions.

The state of education and health remains poor. A large number of young people are forced to go for coaching to other cities and also for better health treatment.

So, what has changed between 2020 and 2025 that was earlier considered a close race turned into a rout for the opposition? The situation of the average person in Bihar has hardly changed. But the percentage of votes for the ruling NDA has gone from 37.3% to 46.6%, while that of the opposition grouping has hardly increased from 37.2% to 37.9%.

Add to that the sharp rise in the voting in 2025 (67%) compared to the assembly election in 2020 (57.3%) and the national election in 2019 (57.3%). So, voters were greatly enthused and voting increased by almost ten percentage points.

No election is usually a single-issue one. But, here two things happened which suggest that something has changed. One, the sharp increase in voting and second, the vote for the ruling party in spite of its indifferent performance as far as the majority are concerned – unemployment and migration have increased. Poverty persists in spite of the massive remittances from migrants and the five kg of rations being given by the state.

The key difference is that the NDA offered the voters unprecedented bribes just before the elections. Free power for up to 125 units, the tripling of social security pensions and the transfer of Rs 10,000 to 75 lakh women. There is also the promise of one crore jobs. The opposition also promised many things, but that is not a bird in hand.

This model of pre-election give-aways delivered for the ruling party recently in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, where the opposition, which was supposed to be winning, was trounced.

Such give-aways have strained the budgets of states – Maharashtra, Punjab, Himachal etc. They are going to strain Bihar’s already weak fiscal situation. But this is immaterial for the ruling party since it has got a thumping victory. Of course, in addition to bribes, the BJP’s organisation, money power, grip over bureaucracy and alleged election manipulations also matter.

What about the public? It does not believe in the long term but is looking at what it can get in hand today. It does not look at the long-term promises of political parties that have failed them over the last 80 years. When corruption is rampant in the country and it is at the expense of the marginalised, why grudge them for accepting the only bribe they ever get?

Arun Kumar retired as professor of economics from JNU and is author of Indian Economy’s Greatest Crisis: Impact of the Coronavirus and the Road Ahead, 2020.

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