Once popular for his probity in public life and susashan (good governance), Nitish Kumar has suffered a huge loss of face in the wake of his fifth switchover to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance. On January 28, he celebrated his swearing-in ceremony as Bihar chief minister for the ninth time.
After barely over three months, Bihar’s political weather has changed, at least in the context of the five Lok Sabha constituencies going to the polls in the second phase on April 26. This is because Nitish’s Janata Dal (United) candidates are contesting all the five seats against the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-Congress alliance’s candidates.
The second phase of the general election in Bihar will serve as an actual barometer to gauge Nitish’s influence among the extremely backward classes (EBCs), believed to be his core support base. These five seats – Kishanganj, Purnia, Katihar, Bhagalpur, and Banka – have a relatively sizable population of EBCs, who have largely favoured Nitish over Lalu Prasad Yadav since the 2005 elections.
In addition, Kishanganj, Purnia and Katihar – which border Nepal, Bangladesh and West Bengal on the eastern side of the state – have a dense population of Muslim minorities. If not all, a significant portion of the Muslim community, even those who opposed the BJP, voted for Nitish due to his track record of development and commitment to secular politics.
However, his switchover to the BJP, especially when Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made “venomous” remarks, per the opposition, against the minorities, has effectively eroded Nitish’s goodwill within the community.
Purnia
The only exception to the general trend of straight contests between the NDA and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) is Purnia (formerly Purnea). The entry of Pappu Yadav – known for his ‘Robinhood’ image – in the fray has turned the Purnia battle into a triangular contest.
JD(U)’s Santosh Kushwaha has been winning the Purnia seat since 2014. Although he faces anti-incumbency, he has Pappu, who had won Purnia thrice as an independent candidate in the past, and RJD’s Bima Bharti battling it out against each other. Pappu was believed to have an upper hand in the beginning. However, Tejashwi Yadav’s intensive campaign in favour of Bharti in the last leg of campaigning has brought the RJD nominee into the fray.
“Santosh can become a beneficiary of the division of the Yadav and Muslim votes between Bima and Pappu. Moreover, Purnia has a good number of Koiries – the caste-men of Kushwaha – who might vote en block for Santosh,” said a local observer in Purnia.
But the situation seems to be completely different in other seats. The Congress appears to have a strong foothold in Kishanganj – the only seat it won in 2019. The All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) of Asaduddin Owaisi has fielded its lone MLA from Kishanganj, Akhtarul Imam. Imam will be contesting against the incumbent and the Congress’s Javed Azad and JD(U)’s Master Mujahid.
Kishanganj has about 68% of Muslim voters. Whether it’s the high concentration of Muslims or its proximity to Bangladesh and Nepal, Kishanganj finds itself at the heart of the Hindutva outfit’s prolonged ‘movement’ against infiltration. However, beyond the Muslim community, local Hindus – especially traders and professionals – largely favour the Congress over the BJP, rejecting the latter’s efforts to polarise voters along communal lines.
Whether it’s the high concentration of Muslims or its proximity to Bangladesh and Nepal, Kishanganj finds itself at the heart of the Hindutva outfit’s prolonged ‘movement’ against infiltration. However, beyond the Muslim community, local Hindus – especially traders and professionals – largely favour the Congress over the BJP, rejecting the latter’s efforts to polarise voters along communal lines.
Unlike in other parts of the state, the Congress has a strong cadre base in Kishanganj, and the battle in this constituency might come down to a contest between the Congress and AIMIM. The JD(U) nominee, Master Mujahid, banking on the EBCs and caste Hindu votes, may end up as a third runner-up.
The veteran Congress leader, Tariq Anwar, had marginally lost to the JD(U)’s Dulal Chand Goswami in 2019, because the CPI-ML Liberation, with a strong presence in Katihar, played a spoilsport against him. But Tariq looks quite comfortable with CPI ML-Liberation, now a part of the INDIA bloc, supporting him wholeheartedly.
Kishanganj, Purnia and Katihar are part of the state’s Seemanchal (bordering) region, and Bhagalpur and Banka going to the polls in the second phase are in the Anga region in the south of the Ganga. It’s hard to say who will eventually win in Bhagalpur with the Congress nominee from the ‘upper’ caste Bhumihar community. Ajit Sharma is locked in a keen contest with the incumbent and JD(U) nominee Ajay Mandal.
While Ajay is relying on his Gangota caste votes and Ajit Sharma on his Bhumihar caste votes, which have traditionally supported the BJP, alongside the Muslims and Yadavs, the core support base of the RJD, Ajit’s daughter and film actor, Neha Sharma, has been campaigning for her father, adding colour to the battle for Bhagalpur.
JD(U)’s Girdhari Yadav wrested the Banka seat from the 2014 winner and former Union irrigation minister, Jayaprakash Yadav, in 2019.
With no visible ‘Modi wave’ on the surface this time, Jayaprakash Yadav seems to have the advantage of having won the seat thrice in the past.
‘Wave-less’ election
Newspapers and news channels might be devoting too much space and time on how Modi is “warning people that the Congress would snatch their property and their women’s mangalsutra (wedding necklace) and distribute it among the infiltrators and Muslims” and the Congress accusing the prime minister of “white lies”. However, voters seem largely disconnected from this political sparring.
The credit goes to the RJD leader and INDIA’s star campaigner, Tejashwi Yadav, for making employment, inflation, and other issues related to life and livelihood the main narrative, outweighing the Ram Mandir and other emotive issues in the state.
It’s not that Modi has lost his popularity with the voters. “But the voters, even while praising Modi, are talking more about the back-breaking price rise and lack of employment opportunities. They don’t express much anger against Modi but talk more in terms of the local issues and candidates in their respective constituencies. While the Congress is placed comfortably in the two seats and there is a tough contest in the three other seats, I won’t be surprised if the BJP lost all the five seats,” said Kanhaiya Bhelari, a senior journalist, on his return to Patna from the constituencies that are going to the polls on Friday (April 26).
Nalin Verma is a senior journalist, author, media educator and independent researcher in folklore.
