Bihar SIR Data: Strong Correlation Between Voter Deletions and Seats Won by Opposition MGB in 2020

New Delhi: The Mahaghatbandhan (MGB) alliance has consistently alleged that the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) in Bihar disproportionately affects their voter base. While there is no way of accurately proving causation, there exists a strong correlation between the seats won by the MGB in 2020 and a higher incidence of voter deletions. 

The top 26 seats with the highest deletions, include as many as 16 won by the Mahagathbandhan and one by All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). Just nine in this list were those where the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had won.

This pattern is not uniform across the state; it appears to be geographically concentrated in Seemanchal and other opposition strongholds. Our analysis finds that it is particularly pronounced in constituencies that were decided by extremely narrow margins, in one case by as slender as 12 votes (Hilsa, won by the MGB). The number of Muslim voters deleted is nearly double in MGB-won seats, data shows.

Deletions by winning alliance

One way to test the MGB's claim is to compare the average number of deletions in seats won by the NDA versus those won by the MGB.

The data shows a clear and significant trend. On average, seats won by the MGB in 2020 have experienced:

1. Higher Total Deletions: An average of 208 more voters were deleted per MGB-won constituency compared to an NDA-won one.
2. Substantially Higher Muslim Deletions: The number of Muslim voters deleted is nearly double (421 vs. 224) in MGB-won seats.
3. Disproportionate Share of Muslim Deletions: The share of Muslim voters among the total deleted list is significantly higher in MGB seats (27.2%) compared to NDA seats (16.7%).

Seats with high number of deletions

If we look at the seats with the highest number of deletions , we see that a pattern emerges.

List of very high deletion hotspots (total deletions > 2,000)

Of the 26 "Very High Deletion" seats, 16 were won by the Mahagathbandhan and one by AIMIM (a party ideologically opposed to the NDA). Only nine were won by the NDA.

A staggering 17 of these 26 seats (65%) are located in the Seemanchal sub-region. This is undeniable proof that the deletion exercise was not geographically uniform but was intensely focused on this specific region, which is the opposition's bastion.

Margin analysis

Not all deletions are equal. Deletions in a safe seat are less impactful than in a marginal one. 

This is perhaps the most critical finding. In several seats, especially those with a close-contest, the number of voters deleted from the rolls is many times larger than the margin of victory from the last election.

While the number of affected seats is nearly even, the severity is far greater for the MGB. The top 5 most impacted seats by ratio (Hilsa, Ramgarh, Suryagarha, Kurhani, Bikram) were all won by the MGB. The RJD's 12-vote victory in Hilsa facing 1,643 deletions is the most glaring example of how this exercise could single-handedly flip a seat.

Geographic hotspot analysis (sub-region level)

Is this phenomenon uniform across Bihar, or is it concentrated in specific political-geographical regions? Bihar's sub-regions have distinct political identities.

The data shows the deletions are not uniform. 

The Seemanchal region (Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia, Katihar), a known MGB/AIMIM stronghold with a high Muslim population, has an average total deletion rate that is more than double the state average (1,385). The average Muslim deletions here are astronomical compared to the rest of the state.

Conversely, the NDA's core regions like Magadh and Tirhut show average deletion numbers well below the state average.

Mithila, a politically competitive region, shows higher-than-average deletions, likely driven by constituencies bordering Seemanchal and those with significant MGB influence.

Party-specific impact

1. RJD & Congress Hit Hardest: The constituencies won by the two main Mahagathbandhan partners, RJD and INC, have the highest average deletion rates. INC-won seats, in particular, show the highest average for both total and Muslim deletions.
2. BJP Below Average: The BJP, the single largest party in the NDA, has an average deletion rate lower than the state average and significantly lower than its main rival, the RJD.

While the entire MGB is affected, the brunt of the impact is being borne by the RJD and the Congress.

Seat-type analysis

Does the pattern hold for Scheduled Caste (SC) reserved constituencies? This is required to check if the phenomenon is purely religion-based or has a caste dimension.

Among the MGB-won seats, the average deletions across 92 general seats was 1,624 voters. In the 18 SC reserved seats, 1,170 deletions took place.

Among the NDA-won seats, the average deletions across 105 general seats was 1,363. In the 20 SC reserved seats, it was 1,223. 

Clearly, the pattern of MGB-won seats having higher deletions holds true for both general and SC reserved seats. However, the disparity is much more pronounced in the general category constituencies. This suggests that while MGB's SC seats are affected, the primary focus of the higher deletions appears to be in general seats, which is where the demographic combination of Muslim + Yadav + other social groups is most potent for the RJD-led alliance.

Quantifying disproportionality

If we define a high deletion seat as any seat with total deletions greater than the state average of ~1,385, then we see that out of the 110 MGB-won seats, 57 are high deletion seats. That's 51.8%. And out of 125 NDA-won seats, 49 are high deletion seats. That’s 39.2%

Similarly, if we define very high deletion seats as those with deletions greater than 2000, then MGB-won seats and NDA-won seats are 21 and 5 respectively. 

This means, a MGB-held seat is significantly more likely to be a high deletion area than an NDA-held one. The gap becomes a chasm when looking at the most extreme cases. An MGB seat was four times more likely to experience very high deletions (>2,000) than an NDA seat. 

Therefore, the SIR exercise in Bihar, irrespective of its administrative intentions and justifications, has been executed in a manner where its political consequences are overwhelmingly concentrated in the opposition's core territories (Seemanchal), on its core parties (RJD, Congress), and within its most potent demographic strongholds (general seats with high M-Y concentration). The potential to influence the outcomes in dozens of marginal seats is not just a possibility; it is a statistical probability based on this data.

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