It is introspection time in the non-political Opposition camp in Bihar after the June 4 Lok Sabha election result.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
A Bihar-level chief of a Muslim organisation, while talking to this correspondent regretted that “had he been aware that there were five more Muslim candidates (out of total nine) in Araria where the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) had fielded Shahnawaz Alam, he would have led a delegation of the community elders all over from Patna to convince them to withdraw.” Shahnawaz lost to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) Pradeep Kumar Singh by a small margin of 20,094 votes when the fact is that the five other independent Muslim candidates together got over 40,000 votes. The gentleman had the reason to cry over spilt milk as in at least four seats, independent Muslim candidates in the fray in some seats polled more than the victory margin of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) candidates and were responsible for the defeat of Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) candidates.
On June 9, some 90 non-political social activists sat on a day-long meeting at Patna’s Gandhi Sanghralaya to take the stock of the situation. It was called by Satya Narain Madan, convenor of the Loktantrik Jan Pahal. Prominent among those present were Padma Shri Sister Sudha Verghese, 1974 JP movement activists Kanchan Bala and Krishna Murari, general secretary of Bihar Rabita Committee Afzal Husain Khan, Dalit activist Prof Shashi Kant Paswan and Udayan Roy.
Factors responsible
This was not the only occasion where supporters of INDIA bloc, who have otherwise nothing to do with the Congress party or the RJD have discussed factors which led to below the par performance of the Opposition alliance.
The conclusion of the post mortem reveals that though RJD leader Tejashwi Prasad Yadav drew huge crowd wherever he went, what led to the defeat of the INDIA bloc candidates was the poor booth management and lack of resources. While RJD had its quota of cadres the fact is that they lacked commitment and discipline to take on a very strong opponent which pumped huge amount of money. True, the Congress too had weak organisational structure yet it won three out of the nine seats it had contested. But it should not be forgotten that two of these seats — Kishanganj and Katihar — have sizeable Muslim population.
The Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation (CPI ML (Liberation)) won two seats when it contested only on three. This was largely because they have a strong cadre base and committed voters.
Notwithstanding these drawbacks and rebellious attitude of some Muslim and Yadav leaders INDIA managed to reduce the gap from 27% in 2019 to about nine per cent this time. The MY-BAAP formula adopted by RJD has yielded result — BAAP stands for bahujan (common masses), agli jati (upper castes), adhi abadi (women) and the poor.
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Among other things which are coming up at various platforms for discussion was the false propaganda going on after June 4 that there were fissures within Muslims and Yadavs. “This is a canard spread by the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) to confuse and divide the Muslims and Yadavs as assembly election is due later in 2025,” a district president of RJD (Minority Cell) told this correspondent on condition of anonymity.
This RJD leader might have his point. Yet the fact is that not only RSS workers, even many Muslim youths are on social media busy in spreading this rumour. Those Muslim youths who are associated with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM), Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj and Janata Dal (United) are more active in spreading this falsehood.
The other challenge was that in several constituencies some Muslim votes went to the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) candidates, though this may not be the case with the BJP.
In Kishanganj JD(U)’s Muslim candidate, Master Mujahid Alam lost to Congress party’s Mohammad Jawed by 59,000-odd votes pushing AIMIM’s Akhtar-ul-Iman to third place.
After election like always, stories are cooked up and spread as to how Yadavs had not voted for the Muslim candidates. This is totally false as except in Madhubani (out of total 40 seats) there was no Muslim fighting on constituency where Yadavs mattered. The only other seat from where a Muslim candidate contested on an RJD ticket was Araria where the community themselves was responsible for the defeat.
If in Madhubani parliamentary constituency there was complaint that Yadavs had not voted overwhelmingly for RJD’s Mohammad Ali Ashraf Fatmi it was largely because the BJP candidate was sitting MP Ashok Yadav, who along with his father and former union minister, Hukum Deo Narayan Yadav had won most of the elections since 1977, when the latter got elected on Janata Party ticket. Hukum Deo later became Janata Dal MP in 1989 and then crossed over to Samajwadi Janata Party of former Prime Minister Chandra Shekar in whose cabinet he had also served. He joined the BJP in 1993. As he had the Socialist background, he had in the past been getting Muslim votes too. As he has grown old, he has left this seat for his son.
Madhubani is said to have about five lakh Muslim voters, that is double than Yadavs. The margin of Fatmi’s defeat (1,51,945) reveals that even if he would have gotten rest of the Yadav votes he would not have won.
Personal ambition
The performance of the INDIA combine could have been better had the personal ambition of some Muslim and Yadav politicians not come in the way. The result in at least half a dozen constituencies were affected due to this reason. This is, however, also true with NDA which lost Buxar and Karakat because of internal bickering and presence of independent candidates, ironically enjoying the blessing of some Sangh Parivar elements.
Yet there is no denying the fact that some Muslims and Yadavs gave a new twist to the electoral battle and in a few constituencies, the election was not fought keeping Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the centre stage. Rather it revolved around the prominent players of the particular region of the state.
If Rajesh Ranjan, alias Pappu Yadav, won as an Independent candidate from Purnea, Hena Shahab, widow of former RJD MP from Siwan and strongman (now late) Mohammad Shahabuddin by contesting as an Independent ensured the defeat of former Speaker of Bihar assembly, Awadh Bihari Chaudhary, a Yadav, of the same party. In the process Hena herself lost. She was earlier offered ticket by the RJD but she declined.
Both Pappu and Hena as well as Akhtar-ul-Iman of the AIMIM played important roles in changing the narrative among a section of Yadavs and Muslims. It is other thing that Akhtar too lost from the Muslim-dominated Kishanganj seat.
Indifference in some constituencies
In the case of Muslims in several places in Bihar, the election failed to evoke such a strong anti-BJP sentiment as has been witnessed in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh.
As the government in Bihar is being headed by Nitish Kumar — be it in alliance with the RJD and Congress or the BJP — Muslims did not face as hostile an environment as in Uttar Pradesh. In a relatively relaxed and less polarised atmosphere many youths of the community were busy sharing totally different views on the social media platforms. For them the main concern was not the fight against the BJP government in the Centre, but ‘empowerment’ of Muslims in the state. They were more critical of the young RJD leader Tejashwi and his father Lalu Prasad Yadav, rather than the saffron party.
Hena Shahab went to the extent of appealing voters of Pataliputra and Jehanabad to vote against RJD’s Misa Bharati and Surendra Yadav, respectively. It is other thing that they both won. AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi himself campaigned against Lalu’s eldest daughter.
Also read: Decoding the Mandate in Bihar: Fresh Lease of Life for Nitish, Resurgence of the Left
These elements did not stop there. After the result was out, they started claiming that the RJD lost several seats in the Kosi belt because of the influence of Pappu and that Rohini Acharya lost because of the Hena Shahab factor. What they could not answer is while Pappu Yadav, after winning from Purnea by 23,000 votes is busy telling the media as to how RJD leadership played its role in denying ticket to him yet the counter-question is: why he did not contest from Madhepura or Supaul from where he and his wife had won in the past and which were offered by Lalu when he had met the latter in March? This was simply because he did not trust Yadavs of these two constituencies.
Pappu insisted on Purnea because Yadavs of Madhepura were angry with him as he ditched the RJD after winning the Lok Sabha election in 2014. He strongly opposed the RJD, JD(U) Congress alliance in 2015. He put up his candidates in at least 40 assembly seats to ensure the defeat of the grand alliance then. In return he got Y-category security from the union home ministry. It was withdrawn only a few months ago.
As Purnea has about 40% Muslim votes, Pappu had more trust on them than Yadavs whose number is much less. Muslims overwhelmingly voted for him and not for RJD’s Bima Bharati. Similarly, in Saran Lalu’s second daughter lost by 13,661 votes because of the presence of a Yadav and two Muslim independent candidates. While Laxman Yadav got 22,043 votes Sheikh Naushad received 16,103 and Mohammad Salim 3,151 in the Saran seat.
Notably, everyone has the right to contest election, but the problem arises when the deliberate intention is to defeat a particular candidate.
Soroor Ahmed is a Patna-based freelance journalist.
Read all of The Wire’s reporting on and analysis of the 2024 election results here.
