Srinagar: The list of candidates running on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ticket for the Jammu and Kashmir assembly election includes several newcomers from other parties.
These ‘imported leaders’ are part of the saffron party’s calculations to retain its ground in what is considered the Hindu heartland of Jammu.
The party is believed to be facing anti-incumbency in some pockets of Jammu, which could mar its prospects in the election being held after over a decade in the erstwhile state.
The names of two former deputy chief ministers of J&K – Dr Nirmal Singh and Kavinder Gupta, along with J&K BJP president Ravinder Raina, were missing from the list of 44 BJP candidates, which was released and later withdrawn by the saffron party on Monday, August 26.
On the other hand, the BJP has given mandate to six candidates who were associated with other parties until recently, including the National Conference’s (NC) former provincial president Devender Rana and former Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leader and J&K minister Chowdhary Zulfikar.
While Rana, a former aide and friend of NC vice-president Omar Abdullah, is contesting from Nagrota constituency, Zulfkar is fighting from his tribal stronghold of Budhal in Rajouri district, against his nephew and NC leader Javed Choudhary.
Others names in the BJP’s list included Shyam Lal Sharma from Jammu North, who defected to the saffron party from the Congress, and Surjit Singh Salathia, a former NC leader, was named as the candidate from Samba constituency.
The list also included former J&K Police SSP Mohan Lal Bhagat, who joined the party only a few days ago, but has got the mandate for the reserved Akhnoor constituency in Jammu division.
The announcement, which excluded 11 winners of the 2014 assembly election in J&K, triggered protests outside the Jammu headquarter of the saffron party with angry workers and some leaders threatening to quit if the party didn’t reconsider the list.
Later, the party released the names of only 16 candidates in two lists for the first phase of election, even as the resentment continues to brew over the selection of newcomers and those who have switched over to the BJP recently.
“Only one candidate from the first list has been dropped. Instead of Baldev Sharma, Rohit Dubey has got the mandate from Katra constituency. The rest of the list remains the same,” BJP’s J&K spokesperson Sunil Sethi told The Wire.
Political analysts believe that the exclusion of senior leaders like ex-legislators Choudhary Sukhnandan, Sham Choudhary, Sat Sharma and others from the list of candidates reflects the underlying uneasiness within the BJP about the ground sentiment in Jammu where it suffers from anti-incumbency, public disconnect, internal rivalry among local leadership and the “problem of the plenty.”
Rekha Chowdhary, author and former professor of Political Science at the University of Jammu, said that there was a strong sentiment within the BJP’s old guard that the new entrants are getting preferential treatment while those who invested in the party from the very start were getting sidelined.
“The BJP’s strength is becoming its weakness in Jammu. It is definitely not a good beginning for the party ahead of the election. Besides, the outcome of the recent Lok Sabha election has shown that the Congress, which was on the verge of decimation in Jammu, is on the path of recovery,” she said.
Senior political analyst and Jammu-based editor Zafar Choudhary said that the party has “bussed in so many people from other parties and notables” from the business community that it has created a problem of insider-versus-outsider.
“All of them, however, are disconnected from the ground and their sole trust is on the narrative run by Delhi,” said Choudhary.
The changes in the BJP’s J&K unit are also seen by some observers as a consolidation of power by Rana, former NC leader and brother of minister of state in the prime minister’s office Jitender Singh Rana, who has brought many senior and youth leaders to the saffron party’s fold after his exit from the NC in 2021.
“Rana is seen as a secular leader in Jammu given his previous association with the National Conference. This suits the saffron party because it has been facing internal squabbles and leadership issues for a long time. Not putting the former top-guns (of J&K BJP) on the electoral chessboard is heavily loaded with meaning,” said a Jammu-based analyst, who didn’t want to be named.
According to different estimates, the BJP is likely to win between 18-21 seats, which will be at least four seats less than its tally in 2014 assembly elections, when it formed a coalition government with the PDP, then headed by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed.
“The most recent internal survey by the BJP suggests that the party won’t be able to win more than 20 seats which is why several senior leaders have been dropped,” said Choudhary.
The party is expected to perform well in Kishtwar, where it has fielded Shagun Parihar, whose two brothers were gunned down by suspected militants in an attack in 2018; Doda where it is relying on a pro-Muslim Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh member Shakti Parihar and Udhampur town where Pawan Gupta, who won in 2014 election as an independent, is contesting on a BJP ticket.
Additionally, the party is also expected to retain its majority in Chenani Ram Nagar, Jammu (East) and Jammu (West), Akhnoor, Samba, Vijaypur, Kathua, Jasrota, and Vaishno Devi.
However, political observers believe that there will be a close contest between the NC-Congress coalition and the BJP on some seats in Jammu, including Nagsani-Paddar constituency where the incumbent District Development Council chairperson Pooja Thakur is pitted against BJP leader and former J&K minister Sunil Sharma.
“Although the DDC chairperson is a grassroots leader who carried out several developmental works in the constituency, the BJP is banking on the old card of communal polarisation to clinch the seat which has about 90% Hindu population,” said the analyst quoted above, on the condition of anonymity.
The saffron party is also expected to face a tough fight in Jammu (East) and Jammu (West) where the NC-Congress alliance has fielded former J&K minister Yogesh Sawhney and Surinder Singh Shingari respectively; Bahu constituency, where senior Congress leader Raman Bhalla has come out as a strong alliance candidate; RS Pura, which has a significant population of Jat community; and Khour, where another Congress leader Tara Chand is in the electoral fray.
Besides, there will be a close contest on two seats in Kathua district, according to political observers. “Even though there is resentment in some pockets of Jammu and the party supporters are angry with the selection of candidates, they will still vote for the BJP as it is a cadre-based party,” said the analyst.
Choudhary said that the BJPs local leadership has become “highly aspirational and ambitious” with each one believing that a BJP ticket alone is a sure pass to victory. “But I think Delhi knows the strategies to overcome most of the challenges,” he said.
