New Delhi: As the counting of votes for the general elections is nearing an end in the north-eastern states on June 4, here are seven takeaways from the results in the 25 Lok Sabha seats.
BJP loses seats to Congress
In 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had pocketed 14 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in three states on its own, while its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies had bagged five seats. Together, their tally stood at 19.
After counting of votes on Tuesday, June 4, the BJP was reduced to 12 seats, while its NDA allies could pocket only three seats. Together, their tally stands at 15.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
For Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, this loss of numbers is not just a reflection of his performance as the primary strategist for the party, but also an extra wrap on the knuckles as the Opposition Congress could increase its tally in the region by three seats. In all, Congress bagged three seats in Assam (Dhubri, Nagaon and Jorhat); both the seats in Manipur (Outer Manipur and Inner Manipur); and one of the two seats in Meghalaya (Tura) – taking its tally up from four in 2019 to six in 2024.
The BJP repeated its 2019 win in Arunachal Pradesh (Arunachal East and Arunachal West) and in Tripura (Tripura East and Tripura West) while succeeding to retain the total number of seats won in Assam at nine, though the overall number of wins for Northeast have slipped to 12.
In these wins, two of Narendra Modi’s cabinet ministers – Sarbananda Sonowal (Dibrugarh) and Kiren Rijiju (Arunachal West) – could come home as winners. In these elections, the BJP had dropped Modi’s minister of state Rameswar Teli from the Dibrugarh seat, and also another minister of state, Rajkumar Ranjan Singh, from the Inner Manipur seat.
In the Guwahati seat, though the BJP could retain the seat, Congress’s Mira Borthakur Goswami gave a formidable fight to Bijuli Kalita Medhi.
Manipur shock to BJP
The biggest takeaway of the results today is, however, from Manipur.
In the Inner Manipur seat, Congress candidate Bimol Akoijam wrested the seat from the ruling BJP by an impressive margin. Akoijam, former professor at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, belongs to the Meitei community, a majority in the Inner Manipur parliamentary seat. The community was upset with the BJP, particularly with Prime Minister Modi for not even visiting the state even when it was burning for over a year. A hugely unpopular chief minister, N. Biren Singh of the BJP, was left to his devices by the Modi government, leading to armed non-state actors pulling the streets of the capital city, Imphal.
In the hills, too, there was considerable discontent against the BJP, which reflected in the results today. The Outer Manipur seat has slipped away from the NDA ally, Naga People’s Front (NPF). Congress’s firebrand candidate Alfred Arthur claimed the seat by over 65,000 votes. The return of the Congress in Manipur is an important shift noted in the region after the counting of votes in these general elections.
Three NDA allies draw a zilch
Yet another important takeaway from the results is this: Three of BJP’s regional allies failed to win a single seat in their respective states. Two of these allies – National People’s Party (NPP) and Nationalist Democratic People’s Party (NDPP) – are in power in Meghalaya and Nagaland, respectively, in alliance with the BJP. And yet, the NPP failed to retain its Tura seat, while its candidate and minister in the government, Ampareen Lyngdoh, lost the Shillong Lok Sabha seat to another regional entity, Voice of the People Party (VPP).
In Tura, considered the bastion of the NPP, chief minister Conrad Sangma’s sister and sitting MP Agatha Sangma lost to the Congress candidate Saleng Sangma by over 1 lakh votes. The Congress has wrested the seat from the NPP after 1998. Sangma’s father and former Lok Sabha speaker Purno Sangma had won that seat multiple times not just as an NPP candidate but also as Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) candidate.
The Shillong seat was won by state Congress leader Vincent Pala in 2019. However, he lost the seat this time to VPP’s Ricky Andrew Syngkon. The Tura win has helped the Congress keep its 2019 tally intact.
In Nagaland, too, the ruling NDPP failed to retain the lone Nagaland Lok Sabha seat. The seat went to the Congress after 1999, making S.S. Jamir the giant slayer.
Yet another NDA ally, NPF, too, failed to retain the Outer Manipur seat, taken away by the Congress.
Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), an ally of the BJP in Assam, could win the Barpeta seat, thanks to the delimitation in the state. It had failed to win a single seat in 2019.
Downward slide of AIUDF
These elections also left the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) without any Lok Sabha seat. It is a first since 2009. The party lost both the seats it had won in 2019. While the Dhubri seat has gone to Rakibul Hussain of the Congress, defeating AIUDF’s Badruddin Ajmal by over six lakh votes, in Karimganj, too, it lost to Congress’s Hafiz Ahmed Choudhury. In the Nagaon seat, its candidate Aminul Islam played the role of vote snatcher for the Congress at best. Still, sitting MP from the Congress, Pradyut Bordoloi, managed to defeat BJP’s Suresh Borah.
Yet another significant win in Assam was that of Congress’s Gaurav Gogoi, deputy leader of the Opposition in parliament and candidate from the Jorhat Lok Sabha seat. After the delimitation in the state, Gogoi had lost his parliamentary seat, Titabor, bringing his electoral win in the 2024 polls under a cloud.
AIUDF’s failure to win any seat, even in the Muslim majority seats like Dhubri and Karimganj, only indicates that the minority votes had consolidated towards the Congress in the state, a trend noted in several other states.
Another party that seems to be out of favour in the region is the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF). It had lost power to Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) in 2019, but gave a formidable fight. However, over the last five years, it appears to have lost considerable ground. In the 2024 assembly polls, held simultaneously with the general elections on April 19, it managed to retain only one of the 15 seats it had won previously. Additionally, the lone Sikkim Lok Sabha seat has slipped from its grasp after the counting of votes on Tuesday.
TIPRA statehood demand in jeopardy?
The Tripura East seat was won by Kriti Devi Debbarman of the BJP by 7,77,447 votes. Kriti is the sister of TIPRA Motha chief Pradyot Debbarma. The BJP had launched her in the parliamentary seat as part of an understanding with Debbarma over his demand for a separate state for the tribals of Tripura. As part of the agreement signed with the Modi government, the Centre would look into the demand, leading the regional party to not only be a part of the state government but also support BJP in the Tripura East seat.
This way, the BJP could retain both the Lok Sabha seats in Tripura in 2014 as well. However, with the BJP not likely to reach the simple majority mark on its own, the question arises about the uncertainly of that statehood demand.
Rise of new regional power
What the 2024 general election results also hold is continuous rise of two new regional powers – the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) in Mizoram and Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) in Sikkim. Both the parties have won the latest round of assembly elections. While SKM could retain the lone Sikkim Lok Sabha seat, ZPM could, for the first time, send an MP to the Lok Sabha from the party from the Mizoram parliamentary seat. ZPM is not formally aligned to either the NDA or the INDIA bloc. In the assembly elections held earlier this year, ZPM contested against the BJP, and also Congress.
In Assam, though Lurinjyoti Gogoi from Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), a new party in the state, couldn’t defeat the BJP candidate and former chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal from Dibrugarh. He did put up a formidable fight, having cornered over four lakh votes.
Space for better opposition alliance
The election results also underline that the opposition INDIA bloc parties could have done a better job of seat distribution in the region, particularly in Assam, where the BJP could repeat its win of nine seats. For instance, in Kokrajhar and Sarrang-Udalguri Lok Sabha seats, a joint candidate of the Congress and the Bodo People’s Front (BPF) would have ensured a victory in both the seats for the INDIA bloc.
In Darrang, BJP’s senior state leader Dilip Saikia won by over eight lakh votes, while INC’s Madhab Rajbanshi polled over five lakh votes and BPF’s Durgadas Boro got 2.97 lakh votes.
In Kokrajhar, Joyanta Basumatary won the seat by 4.3 lakh votes, while Tampa Borgoyari of BPF polled 3.8 lakh votes and Garjan Mashahary of INC over one lakh votes.
In Barpeta, too, the INDIA bloc had a fighting chance if the alliance fought it with a single candidate against the AGP candidate Phani Bhushan Choudhury. Choudhury won the seat by over 7.7 lakh votes while Deep Bayan of INC polled 5.5 lakh votes and CPM’s Manoranjan Talukdar over 86,000 votes and Abul Kalam Azad of AITC over 14,000 votes and BPF’s Samje Uddin by around 8,000 votes.
