The next nine months are going to be crucial for Indian democracy. Will the newly formed Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) be able to withstand the combined might of state power and political artifice? Will the alliance crumble under the weight of a more rigorous ‘Operation Lotus’, which is ably aided by massive persecution of the opposition by the Enforcement Directorate-Central Bureau of Investigation-Income Tax combine?
Two developments – the electoral rout in Karnataka in mid-May and the consolidation of the opposition groups soon after – have greatly rattled the ruling party. Its entire winning strategy has gone haywire. Neither the resource-pumped election campaign nor Modi’s 19 poll rallies and six road shows with full media glare helped the party turn the tables in Karnataka.
Modi’s outbursts
The Modi magic, along with Amit Shah’s famed booth management network and media support, was to be the winning chip for next year’s Lok Sabha polls. Modi’s recent irrational outbursts against opposition leaders betray the shock at the failure of this strategy.
Also read: A Rattled Narendra Modi Leads BJP in Attacking Opposition Over INDIA
Consider the brashness with which Modi called the opposition “loot ki dukan” and “loot ki bazaar”. He dubbed them as the “enemies of the nation who hide behind the name INDIA”. They “encouraged the tukde-tukde gang“. He described the opposition’s Bengaluru meeting as a “conclave of corrupt” and his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as an “alliance of strength”.
Ten days later, he called INDIA a “nafrat ki dukan”. At an official function at the Rajkot international airport, he again called the opposition “corrupt and dynasts”. Appealing to people to ‘quit INDIA’, he said the opposition alliance stood for corruption, dynasty, negativity, and chaos.
File photo of Amit Shah and Narendra Modi. Photo: PTI
Another Modi jab was that the Congress was founded by a foreigner. The reference was to A.O. Hume who, historian Bipan Chandra in his celebrated book India’s Struggle for Independence, said was not a foreign agent. And so the outbursts go on and on.
The misuse of official functions for partisan propaganda is another precedent institutionalised by the present prime minister. Last month, the repeated misuse of government functions led to the dumping of another democratic tradition. Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot was to make a three-minute speech at the Prime Minister’s Sikar function. But the Prime Minister’s Office cancelled it last minute when it knew that the chief minister would mention unpleasant issues like Agniveer.
Within the BJP rank and file, there is a widespread concern over the diminishing returns from Modi’s charisma. The issue was raised right in the presence of Amit Shah by Chhattisgarh BJP leaders who requested him to rely more on local talent. Even the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh mouthpiece Organiser warned the BJP’s bosses about the futility of the party depending too much on Hindutva and Modi’s charisma. Many others in the party feel similarly but avoid coming out openly.
Misuse of probe agencies
Clearly, after nine years in power, the leadership is showing signs of fatigue and a lack of fresh ideas. Instead, what is in the works is more targeted and extensive ED/CBI/IT raids, more Operation Lotuses, individual or bulk, more riots and the spreading of hatred in vulnerable areas. Added to this is more and more Modi build-up, a few reshuffles of BJP units, further intensifying of booth management, and, of course, induction of more corporate funds for the campaign. Many see a quid pro quo in a series of recent concessions to the corporates.
Look at a Union minister’s crude warning to the Opposition: “Ek minute, ek minute…shant raho…tuhmari ghar na ED aajaaein (One minute, one minute…keep quiet so that ED does not knock at your door)”. This was what Meenakshi Lekhi said on the floor of the Lok Sabha right in the presence of the chair and senior ministers. The loud silence in the House speaks volumes of the growing misuse of official agencies for political gains.
The Modi government’s frantic pleas in Supreme Court for the ED chief’s fourth extension is an eye-opener in this big game. Journalists covering the ruling party talk of a new targeted action plan in the making against the opposition by the enforcement agencies. The Maharashtra model of an ED-induced coup d’etat type group defection, we are told, is the preferred option.
We don’t know as yet whether the recent move against a Haryana Congress MLA Dharam Singh Chokker is a curtain raiser of renewed ED assault. And so the renewed witch hunt against the Lalu Prasad Yadav family. But Nadda’s plea to party workers at the BJP’s Hyderabad meeting to win over the unhappy opposition leaders was certainly part of the ED-induced Operation Lotus or what is now called the ‘quit INDIA’ drive.
The Modi-Shah duo’s first response to the Karnataka rout has been to hurriedly expand the old NDA – apparently to prevent smaller parties from gravitating towards the opposition and thus gaining a 38 versus 26 edge. In the process, the party also lost two of its favourite jabs against the opposition. The NDA has now become a far bigger khichdi than INDIA. And hereafter, every dynasty digs at Rahul Gandhi will hurt each of Modi’s 37 NDA partners.
And the BJP’s own khichdi has already turned sour for many of its allies. Uttar Pradesh’s Nishad Party chief Sanjay Nishad and BJP leader Jai Prakash Nishad have come out in the open by organising separate ‘mahakumbhs’. Similarly, the Paswan party, another important NDA ally, finds itself sharply divided between uncle Pashupati and nephew Chirag. Until recently, the uncle was BJP’s ally. Chirag now claims Amit Shah has already agreed to allot six Lok Sabha seats as part of a new agreement where Pashupati finds no role.
In Karnataka, the BJP’s reported toppling game has caused a sharp rift between father Deve Gowda and son Kumaraswamy. The father has ruled out an electoral alliance with the BJP. Another worry is that some of the 37 allies have staked higher claims for seats. Telugu Desam Party’s (TDP’s) Chandrababu Naidu, a new convert to the NDA cause, has made it clear that he will not support Modi’s move for Uniform Civil Code.
Also read: ‘Modi Magic’ Is Nothing But BJP PR Amplified by Media
Time is running out for the INDIA alliance to tackle the growing rigours of Amit Shah’s information engineering. For the media, things will get worse after Shah’s separate meetings with media owners and editors sometime last month. Political pressure on journalists is already intense. A recent Lokniti survey found that 82% of journalists believed that their organisation is supporting the BJP.
A partisan media
Consider the media’s recent coverage of political events. It reveals an established pattern: faithfully go by the official brief while reporting the BJP and whip up negative angles in the case of opposition:
- BJP chief Nadda holding a meeting of state leaders (avoiding interpretations)
- Nitish PM contender posters in Bengaluru.
- Nitish opposed the name INDIA and left the meeting in a huff.
- Denying such reports, Nitish says he was not a contender for the PM post.
- Kharge also refutes media reports, says not a PM aspirant.
- Amid the discord and murmurs on the chief minister’s post, Siddaramaiah and Shivkumar meet (There was no ‘discord’ for three months).
- Cracks in opposition as many MPs favour middle ground (Discussions are viewed as discord).
- Rift in Chhatisgarh Congress, orders overturned (CM and his deputy say the arrangement working well)
Now, can you ever find any such critical stories about the ruling party?
Here comes a dire warning to the united opposition. Sounded by a long-time confidant of the Modi-Shah regime, Satya Pal Malik fears that the duo could go to “any length” to retain power. Malik was governor of four states under them, including Jammu and Kashmir when Article 370 was scrapped. “Yeh kutch bhi kar sakte hain (They can do anything for power)”, Malik said at a function in the capital. He narrated how Modi had in the midst of the 2019 elections reversed the narrative by whipping up the Balakot air strike. The mainstream media, as usual, played it safe and ignored the story.
P. Raman is a veteran journalist. He is the author of Tryst with Strong Leader Populism.
